Autumn Forecast issued 29/08/2014

Issued 29/08/2014 on my Facebook page - posted here for posterity and easy access...

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Autumn Forecast

I will start with the usual caveat that seasonal forecasts can and do go wrong. Predicting 5 days ahead is difficult enough – giving an exact forecast for a particular weekend in November right now is impossible. However I can give a guide as to what I am expecting.

My summer forecast was issued on June 3rd and is available for review if you scroll down quite a way - and I have posted on my old blog for easy access - http://jameswinfieldweather.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/summer-forecast-2014.html.

My headline was for an above average summer in terms of temperatures, but also rainfall. Sunshine at least slightly above average. And the best chance of significant thunderstorms in our area for some years.

Amongst the things that I feel I got right were no month-long heatwave for July but good spells of hot weather - sunshine and temperature predictions for June and July, thunderstorm potential. August was furthest from being accurate, in particular by predicting average rainfall when we received well-above average though at least I stated that the month would be more unsettled in the second half which it has been. And I did have low confidence in my August forecast.

I am happy with the overall accuracy and will look to build in what I have learnt for next summer.

The headline for this autumn is for a dry September and October, often with above-average temperatures. A gradual breakdown to unsettled conditions in November with above average rainfall and an early taste of winter to finish.

September will begin with high pressure over the UK, or drifting to the east. This will bring lots of warm or possibly hot sunshine. There is the potential for it to briefly drift west bringing a cooler flow and perhaps some showers around 7th - 10th September. I then expect high pressure to move back over the UK to bring further warm sunshine for the rest of the month. Depending on the exact position of the high pressure, there could be some chilly nights in the second half of the month. Rainfall to be very low, perhaps as few as 3-4 days with rain falling, mostly from weak weather fronts toppling over areas of high pressure occasionally.

Overall I expect well-above average sunshine amounts, above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall.

I am 90% confident of this outcome.

October has a strong signal for high pressure to be to our east and this has been something that I have been confident about for several months now, which will mean southerly winds and well above-average temperatures at times, especially in the first half of the month.

The second half of the month is most likely to see the Atlantic high come into effect, bringing cooler north-westerly or northerly winds and occasional showers or weak weather fronts, but mostly dry.

Overall I expect above-average sunshine amounts, slightly-above or above average temperatures and below-average rainfall.

I am 70% confident of this outcome - less confident about the second half.

November will see the return of low pressure systems, though I expect the Jetstream to be tracking slightly north of here, say over Scotland so although rainfall will likely be regular, I expect that we will miss the heaviest of the rain. High pressure will likely nudge into the south at times so there will be a couple of 3-4 day drier spells.

I do feel that there is a chance of a brief cold spell towards the end of the month.

Overall I expect slightly below-average sunshine amounts, slightly above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall.

I am 80% confident of this outcome.

Early signs for winter are for a generally mild winter, and a wetter than average winter although there are no signals for it to be as extreme as last winter – in fact high pressure should nudge up from the south-west at times.

However, there are conflicting signals that it could be a very cold and very snow-filled winter, at least for January onwards. Certainly there is a much higher chance of snow this winter than last winter – which is something I stated before last winter. Added on volcanic uncertainty in Iceland and potential effects in the unlikely, but possible, event of a really major eruption and this winter is definitely one to watch.

Thankfully my winter forecast is still 3 months away!

If you have made it this far then it would be appreciated if you could share the forecast and/or invite friends. A lot of love and effort goes into this forecast and they are normally a reasonable indicator of the upcoming season.

Enjoy autumn

— in Reading.

Summer Forecast 2014

Posted here after summer to create an easily viewable link.

Original on Facebook, post date 3rd June 2014.

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Welcome to my Summer 2014 Forecast

I begin, as always with a caveat that long-term forecasting is horrendously difficult and can only really be produced in terms of the most-likely expected patterns.

My long-term followers will know I got my summer 2013 forecast pretty spot on – predicting a month-long heatwave in July when most other forecasters were expecting another washout. However this winter I underestimated the amount of rainfall (slightly above average was my prediction), my spring and autumn forecasts were reasonable though a long way from perfect.

The headline is for an above average summer in terms of temperatures, but also rainfall. Sunshine at least slightly above average. And the best chance of significant thunderstorms in our area for some years.

This is what I believe is the most likely outcome – it doesn’t mean a washout or a long heatwave won’t happen.

So onto my monthly breakdown.

June is most likely to see a strong area of high pressure develop to our north-east over Scandinavia, particularly in the second half of the month, when I also expect the Jetstream to be running south, bringing very wet conditions to France, for example. Both will be major factors in our weather here in Berkshire.

The first half of the month will be characterised by low pressure to our south-west, often bringing heavy showers for several days at a time. However the wind direction will be favourable for temperatures and should bring at least one very short spell of very warm/hot weather in the first half of the month – but only for 1-2 days before thundery rain arrives once more.

Assuming high pressure builds over Scandinavia as expected during the second half of the month, this should reverse the script to several warm, settled days, though morning cloud often taking a while to clear, interspersed with shorter spells of heavy showers – potentially some cracking thunderstorms, and then the pattern repeating itself.

The first half of the month will have around 10 days of rain falling, the second half around 6.

Overall I expect above-average rainfall, above-average temperatures and around average sunshine, perhaps slightly below average.

80% confident on this outcome.

July is most likely to see high pressure taking more of an influence over our weather, with both high pressure to our east, and also the Azores high nudging in from the south-west.

However, unlikely last year I do not expect any long heatwaves.

The first week of July (give or take) I believe will be sunny and hot. This then being followed by a thundery outbreak from the south which again could potentially bring some very high rainfall totals.

Once this system clears out of the way I expect fresher conditions with ridges of high pressure building from the south-west (the Azores high) – but this not being especially strong, so a few fine and fairly warm days will be interspersed with showery days, this pattern continuing for much of the month.

Overall I expect slightly above-average rainfall (though below average if we miss the early-mid month thunderstorms), slightly above average temperatures and slightly above average sunshine amounts.

65% confident on this outcome.

August has no clear signals, which is particularly unhelpful.

My suspicion is that we will see drier, sunnier weather in the first half, perhaps just touching the hot category for a while.

The second half being slightly more unsettled in terms of afternoon showers/thunderstorms developing but still some decent sunshine around.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, above average sunshine and average rainfall.

50% confident on this outcome.

So not bad at all, especially when you compare it to the summers of 2007 to 2012.

That said, things do change, and I will regularly update you on my long-term thoughts as summer goes on.

It would definitely be appreciated if you would like/share and invite friends.

Looking further ahead, and the early signs are for an unsettled September, a significant warm spell in October and back to cool and unsettled in November though turning settled but frosty towards the end.

But please take these autumn thoughts with a bigger pinch of salt than the council has left over from the winter.

Dare I mention winter?!

Last winter I said that the winter of 2014/15 would see more snow than the winter of 2013/14. Which will take one snowflake to be accurate.

My hunch is that we will see an early onset of cold weather in late November/December, but then turning milder and more unsettled as winter goes on.

Enjoy the summer.

Sunday 3rd February 2013

Tonight will be cloudy, dry and mild, 9'C.

Monday will also be fairly cloudy but some sunny spells, 8'C, 4'C overnight.

Tuesday will be cold and windy, with some showers, and these could fall as snow. Any snowfall is likely to be transient and melt quickly. 4'C by day, 2'C by night. I have a feeling that I may have to update this forecast nearer the time.

Wednesday will feel colder in the northerly wind, albeit possibly not be as cold at 5'C, wintry showers are possible but sunshine is the main story. A frost overnight as the wind dies down, down to -1'C.

Thursday and Friday, the coldish air will still be in place, it should be fairly sunny, around 4'C with a frost overnight, down to -2'C or perhaps even lower.

The weekend looks interesting with a battle between cold air to the east trying to build, and milder Atlantic weather wanting to bring rain back in - and as we saw many times in January this battleground brings lots of snow potential - and of course lots of forecasting headaches.

Currently I do not feel the synoptics are right for a prolonger cold spell and that any snow this coming weekend will be quickly replaced by another spell of milder and wetter weather - it depends on how well entrenched the cold gets this week, I would say there is a 30% chance of this coming cold spell lasting.

Sunday 27th January 2013

Missing the snow?

Tonight, early showers clearing, mostly dry and chilly, 1'C. However there is a chance of a small feature bringing a downpour around midnight or just after.

Monday sees a band of cloud and rain spread from the west, rain around 2pm to 9pm, give or take, quite showery in nature, 8'C. Noticeably windy. 7'C overnight.

Tuesday through to Wednesday morning will be wet, with further long spells of rain, possibly 30 hours on continuous rain. Missing the snow yet? Wednesday afternoon should see brighter weather but with showers.

A very mild wind on Tuesday could see us reach 13 or even 14'C. Wednesday less mild at 10'C. Mild at night too.

Thursday morning sees the next area of rain, followed by sunshine and showers, fresher at 8'C.

Friday is interesting, an area of heavy rain close to the south, with a cold blast coming from the north - it could turn to snow overnight. One worth watching but only 25% likely.

Any cold snap next weekend I expect to be short-lived.

There is certainly the potential for further cold weather the week after though most likely down here not to be cold enough for snow, say 5 to 7'C with rain.

I am expecting a further significant cold spell during February, starting around 10th February on current tracks.

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I don't always remember to post my forecasts to my blog as I mainly use Facebook - for those with Facebook you can check my weather page.

Wednesday 16th January 2013

Time to put some details on Friday's snow forecast.

Before we start - today was what is known as an 'Ice Day' as the maximum temperature was -0.8'C.  Well this is assuming that the temperature doesn't go above 0 between now and midnight which is a pretty safe assumption.

Actually it is worth mentioning a very small risk of a very light snowfall during Thursday, but it should just remain dry.

There is less uncertainty in the snow for Friday, thankfully, than the previous events.

The uncertainty is around how far east the band of snow will travel and where the heaviest will be.

At the moment it looks to start around 7am, and will be generally moderate, sometimes heavy and will last well into Saturday.

Saturday it will be lighter and patchy before dying out.

By the time Saturday morning comes, around 10cm should have fallen.  Before you ask about your area - pretty much the whole of England is included in this forecast, away from the coasts.

I can only say 60% confidence in this specific outcome.  There is a 15% chance of a much heavier snowfall, say 30cm by the end of the weekend, if the band of snow gets stuck over us.  There is also a 15% chance of a much smaller snowfall, say a few cm.  And still a 10% chance of a total disappointment.

Either Sunday or Monday there is another spell but this is much more uncertain as to whether it will be rain, sleet or snow - your guess would be as good as mine right now.

Needless to say it will remain cold - around 0'C by day, and at night between -2'C and possibly as low as -10'C after the snowfall - how cold it gets overnight depends on how clear the sky becomes.

Chance of something milder by Wednesday next week with a thaw thanks to a more normal jetstream pattern - but far from guaranteed.  Any thaw has a good chance of being temporary.

Monday 14th January 2013

The last few days have been a reminder at just how marginal it is for snowfall in this area, and how difficult it is to forecast.  It has been somewhat head-ache inducing, I do actually feel a bit sorry for the professionals.

I feel I was a bit harsh on the Met Office on my post on Saturday.

Just about the end of the snow, for now at least, but getting much colder.

This evening and tonight will see further wintry showers, falling as snow towards midnight and some places will see another light covering.  Icy, down to -2'C.

Tuesday will be rather sunny but it is unlikely to get above freezing all day and down to -5'C overnight with a hard frost.  Just a small chance of a snow shower.

Wednesday also looks fairly sunny, 0'C at best during the day, -5'C at night with the potential of perhaps -8'C.

Thursday again fairly sunny, a small chance of some light snow, 0'C by day and -4'C overnight.

Friday and Saturday have the potential for more spells of snow.

It may turn briefly milder by Sunday.

Thursday 10th January 2013

Model watching is never easy. I have bad news...and good news!

Saturday's snow event is massively downgraded. Rain will set in during the morning and it will still very likely turn to snow somewhere between 3 and 6pm. However the amount of precipitation is much reduced, and I would say 3cm is the most likely amount of snow. That said, the M4 is the boundary between rain and snow so it might not even snow that much. There is still a 20% of NO snow. 3'C at most during the day, down to -5'C overnight and icy.

Sunday will see the cold easterly wind dig in and snow showers could get as far inland as Reading - potentially a cm or two, but it there is a better chance it stay dry. No chance of rain - it would be snow. 0'C by day, -6'C overnight.

Monday will start sunny but very cold, a band of cloud will approach from the west with snow for the evening and overnight. You would be advised a close eye on this one as it could cause chaos if it arrives in rush hour. 3-5cm quite possible even in low-lying Reading. -1'C during the day, -3'C by night.

Tuesday and Wednesday remain cold or very cold with further snow showers possible. 0'C by day (or less), -3'C at the most by night...much colder if clear skies.

Then there is a lot of uncertainty for Thursday onwards, but there are realistic chances of possibly the most memorable winter event of my lifetime. Some of the model projections are showing huge amounts of snow for the south.

If what is currently projected comes off in its entirety there would be a huge amount of chaos for several days.

However - I cannot emphasise enough how often models change and how often snowfall events get downgraded during cold snaps (though they also appear out of nowhere!!)

It is more likely to stay cold with the potential for further snow for some time. 7-10 days though 7 weeks would not be impossible.

Tuesday 8th January 2013

Rule number one in weather forecasting - if models are showing easterly winds, always take them with a pinch of salt. If models are predicting a westerly wind 10 days out then it will almost definitely happen - if they are showing an easterly wind just 3 days out, remain sceptical.

However, my long-range winter forecast expected a cold second half of January and this is the back-up for it.

I'm not yet 100% certain of snowmageddon but it could be a very memorable spell of weather.

Read on...

Wednesday I am hopeful of some spells of sunshine but with a band of cloud close to the south it is only 60% likely. 8'C by day, 2'C by night.
Thursday looks wet all day, but even this close it is not certain, around 7'C.
Friday looks cool and mostly dry, perhaps some light rain in the morning, 5'C by day, 2'C by night.
Saturday is very interesting. Low pressure heading from the west with cold air digging in from the east. Currently money would be on rain turning to snow (40%) with 5-10cm possible but it could just rain (25%), it could just snow 10cm or so (25%) - and it might just be dry and cold (10%). Around 1'C by day and -4'C overnight.

Remember - forecasting snow in Reading is marginal and it is quite possible I will not be able to say with certainty even the day before.

Sunday looks very cold, but currently looks dry with the chance of more snow overnight. -2'C by day, -8'C at night.

So be prepared for significant disruption. But remember it isn't definite yet. I'd say I am 80% confident of a cold spell, 60% confident of some snow, 40% confident of disruptive snow.

For Sophie's Mum

(Written 31/12/2012).

Well, that is the last of the rain for a while (as I first suggested two weeks ago that it would be).

There is a small chance of a passing shower tonight, but it should be dry for most, down to 3'C in fresher air by the early hours.

And then high pressure builds from the south-west. If only it would do this in July. Never mind.

2013 will start with sunshine, 7'C for Tuesday, more cloud at nig...ht so only down to 2'C.

Wednesday will see a weak weather front cross during the day, so it will be cloudy, there may be bits of light rain but nothing much and it will introduce milder air - 7'C by day, 9'C by night.

Thursday to Saturday look mostly cloudy affairs, the sun might come out and if it does it could feel surprisingly pleasant, there could also be some light drizzle at times but most likely dry, around 10 to 12'C.

And the week after also looks mostly dry, perhaps a weak weather front Monday/Tuesday passing through, but nothing much.

At the moment the area of high pressure looks set to be situated such that it will give mostly cloudy but mild weather - it wouldn't take too much of a change in positioning to bring more of a clear but colder continental airflow.

In fact, as January progresses I expect, as I have said previously, that colder air is likely to head over the UK and the potential for snow should increase in the second half of January.

Very difficult to give details of if or when it will snow 3 days away let alone 3-4 weeks away but the potential is definitely there. As it is for February.

Happy New Year to all - please spread the word if you appreciate my forecasts.

https://www.facebook.com/#!/readingweather?fref=ts

A June Of Three Thirds?

I expect June to be split into three.  The first part wet, but not always as cold as this, the second part to be fine and dry but not massively warm, and then a heatwave, most likely with downpours, to finish.  The unsettled part will be for around another 10-16 days, the two spells afterwards for between 4-8 days each, still very uncertain.

I will talk about July and August later.

I have to admit that the Jubilee weekend forecast was the worst I have made for a while.  It was a very difficult one to predict - hence why nobody was saying anything about what the weather would be until a few days in advance - I am trying to do it much further in advance and I have to hold my hands up and say I got that one wrong.  Sorry.

It was only on Thursday 31st that I was able to get a true grip on what was going to happen, such was the unpredictability of it.  Why was it so unpredictable?  A combination of things from a very southerly jet-stream wanting to move north towards the UK, the first tropical storm of the season, Beryl which was unusually early to get mixed up in the Atlantic, a hot plume from Africa and high pressure building to our north-west, all made it a total mess and very unpredictable.

I took a punt and lost.

I am more certain about this week being unsettled though and I give you details:

Wednesday may see some sunshine but don't be fooled, showers will develop , some heavy, possibly torrential downpours, at any time.  You may get lucky and miss them all in which case it will be a pleasant day at around 17'C, but expect heavy downpours.

Thursday will see a deep area of low pressure, you will notice it being rather windy, and an area of heavy rain will spread across during the day, we are talking 5-6 hours of heavy rain.  It will clear through in the evening to lead to showers overnight.  Between 14'C and 16'C.

Friday will be showery with the potential for longer outbreaks of heavy rain too, around 14'C, cooler though if it is cloudy and wet all day.

At the moment, Saturday could turn out fine at 18'C but heavy rain is on the way, most likely for the evening and overnight, and a real soaking quite likely.  Again, this far out it is not possible to say whether the timing is spot on, there is a risk of the rain arriving during the day.

Sunday will see more rain, and turning cooler.

At the moment I think it most likely that there will be more rain the week after before finally drying out for a while but that is not certain.

I would suggest at the moment, around 18th is my guess for when it might start to turn settled, but cool to start.

Around 25th is my guess for the heatwave.

But things can change and probably will so keep an eye out on my Facebook page for regular short updates.

July I expect to be quite hot at times, some good sunny spells, but also some thundery rain at times, a good mixture but some good sunshine for sure.

August I expect to be drier, hot to start but cooling down towards the end.

If you like my forecasts, please spread the word.  Ta.

James Winfield's Weather Forecast 3rd May

April was wet.  Very wet. Triple the average in some areas.

I would happily bet that May will be wetter than April.

There is also plentiful cold air coming down from the north, as you may have felt - Thursday in Reading did not get above 9.5'C.

But it isn't all doom and gloom because there is a large pulse of hot air in the upper atmosphere which is coming from the south.

Don't get too excited though, because you should know cold air and warm air don't get along easily from your physics education (no I don't remember much sadly).

A cold week will lead into a very wet week, but how it ends depends upon...magic...or perhaps what happens during the week coming, so I cannot be sure yet but I favour the solution of next weekend being very warm and thundery at 60%.  The other solution is a calm, pleasant, sunny, weekend but cold for the time of year with possible frost overnight and around 13'C - one of those is your reward for the week of rain.

This weekend might end up relatively dry.  Cloudy, damp, bits of rain, nothing to shout about.

Next week is concerning as it could possibly rain heavily on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday without much in the way of relent.  If you are living in an area which is likely to flood, be prepared.

So next weekend, as I said 60% it will be 24'C but thundery, 40% of glorious sunshine and 14'C.

I will keep updates on the Facebook page as I do not have the time to put into regular forecasts at the moment.

Oh, I am still expecting a good summer.  Hot July.  Hot August.  I see no reason why not.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 19th April 2012

You know what?

I kind of miss doing my weather forecasts.

I might just have been having a lover's tiff with forecasting, I do not know.  I think I need to forget about not having much of an audience - how many people read my forecasts shouldn't be my judgement of whether it is worth doing them - it has to be more about me and what I enjoy.

And I do enjoy forecasting, and (normally, I think) getting it right.  So I'm going to do it anyway.

This unsettled spell is going to last.  I do not see this pattern changing much during April and May, except for brief glimpses.

Friday I see as slightly less showery.
Saturday I see back to lots of heavy showers around.
Sunday could be quite fair, still some showers, but lighter showers, and lighter clouds.
Monday - a big ass load of rain to make up for being slightly drier on Sunday.  Big rain.

Followed by more days of heavy showers.

Temperatures will remain cool for the time of year, around 11'C, cooler in the rain, but a touch more on the drier days like Sunday, say 13'C.

So far this year's weather is kind of reminding me of 2003, to an extent, and certainly latter parts of last year did.  Remember 2003?

I think my forecasts are becoming like the rain - intermittent.

Over And Out

You may have noticed the lack of weather forecasts recently - or probably more likely you haven't.

I have decided to hang up my weather forecasting jumpers as I simply do not have the time at the moment and I want to focus on what is most important to me, which is my DJing and web design.

My weather blog is actually one year old this week - I have enjoyed it but as the average readers dropped from 20-25 to about 6, it has become more of a chore and I think it is about time to put it to bed.

Plus the Met Office have actually much improved their website - I recommend a revisit if you have stopped going.

Though they won't be giving you meaningful predictions long in advance that I have been.

I am going to continue to put brief outlines on my Facebook weather page - and perhaps if there is something significant worth talking about, I might still do the blog.  Feel free to spread the word.

I hope you have enjoyed reading.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 2nd April 2012

From summer to winter inside a week - don't you love the English weather?

Tonight will be fairly cloudy but mostly dry, odd spot of rain possible, between 2-5'C depending on how cloudy it ends up.
Tuesday may start bright but low pressure develops over England with outbreaks of rain by the afternoon and into the evening, a mild 12'C by day but a chilly 1'C overnight.
Wednesday will be cloudy with a cold north-easterly wind with more outbreaks of rain or sleet, perhaps some wet snow in the morning or evening, 6'C at best.  Outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow overnight still, around 2'C.
Thursday will again be cloudy, any sleet or snow will turn to rain and it will gradually die out, the cold wind also becoming lighter, no better than 6'C again, and possibly down to -4'C overnight with a sharp frost.

There is significant uncertainty for the Easter weekend at the moment, it certainly doesn't look as cold as it previously did though:

Friday will start sunny, there will be a northerly breeze still and the odd shower.  12'C.  Rain spreading down in the evening and overnight, with colder air once more, 2'C.
Saturday sees a cold wind with showers, possibly wintry, 7'C by day, -3'C by night with a significant frost.

Sunday currently looks the best day, sunny, mostly dry, 12'C.
Monday 50/50 as to whether it will be dry and sunny and 15'C - or showery and 12'C.

As I said, the Easter forecast is an uncertain one at the moment, mainly in terms of temperatures as it could be a bit milder than that.

More weather from the north most likely after that, more showers or rain too - but keep an eye out for 20th April give or take for something nicer.

Snow Update - 30th March 2012

There is now a 40% chance of some snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in Reading.

I rate the chance of snow as high as 50% for Easter weekend, most notably on Easter Sunday or Monday.

As you go further north, the chances are higher.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 29th March 2012

And the fat lady sings tomorrow.

Whilst there will be some more sunny days to come - you will need a jacket, and maybe a coat.
There is rain or showers to come too...and maybe some snow.  Maybe.
And almost certainly some frost.

Goodbye summer - see you in a month.

Tonight sees the subtle change as the breeze swings round to the north, mostly clear and definitely dry, 5'C.
Friday will see more sunshine but I do think there is a 20-30% chance of a couple of showers developing - stay dry and sunny and 16'C is yours, but be unlucky and catch a shower or two then 12'C may be your destiny.
Saturday will be cloudy with some light rain or drizzle at times, 12'C and a frost overnight, down to a chilly -2'C.
Sunday will be sunny, but only around 11'C, again cold with a frost overnight, down to -2'C.
Monday will start sunny and it might even reach a pleasant 15'C with a bit of luck, but rain is coming down from the north overnight, 5'C at night.
Tuesday will see rain for much of the morning, 10'C in the rain but becoming cooler when it clears, most likely during the afternoon.  Quite a frost overnight, down to -3'C.
Wednesday looks sunny, 10'C so still chilly and it could get down to -4'C overnight.
Thursday also looks sunny with more normal temperatures, around 13'C.

Friday might hang onto something reasonable before it all goes downhill with northerly blasts and rain or showers - with possibly something wintry (almost definitely for northern England and Scotland) but here in Reading...you know the score by now, snow doesn't often come off.

Don't blame the weather for a crap Easter forecast - blame the moon cycle - or religion.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 26th March 2012

It reached 19.9'C in Reading on Saturday, the highest of the year here so far...you may be amused to hear that it was a paltry 14'C in Shoreditch when I arrived there on Saturday...but the nightclub was hot!

High pressure to remain in charge but turning much cooler for the weekend and somewhat more unsettled.  Remember - I said there was no chance of April 2012 repeating the glorious April 2011.

Here we go:

Tonight will be clear and chilly, down to 2'C.
Tuesday will be sunny and clear again, up to 18-19'C, chilly overnight, perhaps down to 1'C.
Wednesday will be sunny and clear, maybe 20'C.  A little more cloud overnight, around 5'C.
Thursday sees more in the way of cloud but still should be some good sunny spells, a northerly breeze developing, 17'C by day, 6'C by night.
Friday will be the above average day, there will be sunny spells but the odd light shower will be possible, 30% chance, 16'C by day, 7'C overnight.
Saturday will be cooler, around 13'C with showers developing widely, a frost possible overnight, down to 0'C.
Sunday is currently most likely to be fair and dry, around 12'C.

The week following will likely be a mix of sunshine and showers.

Easter currently looks chilly with the chance of wintry showers.  Oh yeah, you heard it here first.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 22nd March 2012

I know I said my last weather forecast was possibly going to be my last regular forecast however it got 29 readers which is a bit more like it - it makes it worth the amount of time I spend on it, and I do spend time on it - every day, a minimum of twice a day I am studying charts, etc.

Granted 3 of the readers came via www.buygenericsfromindia.com.

We reached 18'C today in Reading - and it should go a little higher in the next couple of days - I am happy to put a bet on 20'C being reached.

Remember - I told you this 10 days ago.  Did anyone else tell you?

I don't claim to get every single detail spot on - the professionals cannot and neither can I.  But I do like to believe that I provide something better for the people of Reading and the surrounding area than other widely available "forecasts".

Rant over, have some weather:

Tonight will be cloudy with a small chance of a shower, 6'C.
Friday may start cloudy but the sun will come out and it should reach 18'C in good sunny spells, a 20% chance of a shower later in the afternoon, 6'C overnight.
Saturday will see good sunny spells, some cloud around.  I am hopeful of 20'C being reached.  6'C overnight.
Sunday will be cloudier but there will still be sunny spells and 17'C is quite possible.  5'C overnight.
Monday will be sunnier but more of an easterly than the southerly of the last few days so a touch cooler at 16'C and possibly down to 3'C overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday will both be sunny days up to 17'C or 18'C.

I've said it before and I will say it again - April 2012 will not be a repeat of the beautiful April 2011.  Which is a good thing in my book as another glorious spring will probably curse summer.

I would currently say there is a 50% chance of a northerly setting in by the end of March, bringing, yes, you guessed it - wintry showers.

Either way I expect roughly the first 15-20 days of April to be much cooler than now, and also more unsettled with some hefty showers.

Keep reading and I might keep doing forecasts :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Sunday 19th March 2012

What is this?  A Sunday weather forecast?

Well I have been struggling with time-management recently.  My weather forecasts are possible one of the things that I might have to cull because with an audience of about 5 readers then I think they are probably a luxury in my life and I might have to put my regular weather forecasts to bed, to concentrate on other priorities in life.

There will be no getting me out of my addiction of trying to forecast the weather, and I will still likely post from time to time, and will try my hardest to make any forecasts that are requested of me, however if I do blog any forecasts in the future, it will be just for my own purposes, to remind myself of what I previously forecasted.

So, maybe for the final time:

Tonight will be chilly and may even see a frost, down to -1'C.
Monday will be a boring and cloudy day, odd bit of brightness, odd light shower is also possible, 11'C, down to 2'C overnight.
Tuesday sees high pressure re-asserting itself, though still mostly cloudy, 13'C in any brightness, around 4'C overnight.
Wednesday will see more in the way of sunshine, maybe a 15'C if you are lucky, around 6'C overnight, still plenty of areas of cloud though.
Thursday a touch cloudier than the day before but with the winds from the south, and in fact all the way from Africa, it will feel quite warm around 15'C and higher if more sun than I currently expect.  Around 6'C overnight.
Friday currently looks cloudy and damp, though confidence is not high, around 14'C.

And that should set us up for a nice weekend and we may even see something around 17-18'C at the weekend if we get enough sunshine and keep our fingers crossed.

Thanks for reading.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 15th March 2012

It was mistier and not as sunny this week as I was expecting - and temperatures suffered a bit too.

Time for a bit of rain:

Tonight will be cloudy with some mist and fog patches again developing, down to around 2'C.
Friday will be mostly cloudy, the odd spot of drizzle around, 10'C - a couple of degrees higher if the sun comes out for an hour in the early afternoon.  5'C overnight.
Saturday sees low pressure developing with an area of rain coming up from the south from morning onwards, it will be fairly heavy and 6-10 hours of continuous rain is quite possible.  The worst of the rain should clear around 6pm, give or take.  The band of rain won't be that wide, say around 100 miles, so go far enough east or west and you will stay dry.  A chilly 8'C in the rain and a touch of frost if the skies clear for long enough overnight, 0'C.
Sunday will be brighter but with a 50% chance of a couple of showers, particularly in the afternoon, 10'C perhaps - down to -2'C overnight with a frost.
Monday will start sunny but may cloud over later, dry, 11'C.  A frost is possible overnight.

Next week will be dry, with some sunshine, but overnight frosts and some patches of fog.

Temperatures should improve during the week and should end up above average for the time of year again at around 15'C by the weekend - far lower than I was originally hoping for next weekend however the high pressure looks to be having more of an easterly or south-easterly wind rather than southerly, and the continent ain't that warm yet.

But next weekend should be pleasant.  Certainly much nicer than this coming weekend.

Don't expect a repeat of April 2011 next month though.  I am expecting a fairly unsettled month, at least for the first half.