You will be pleased to know, that as per my long-range forecast, things are about to warm up for the last third of the month.
I'm going to tell you what it looks like for the rest of the month, but I would not be surprised if it ends up better than current predictions. During the weekend, the near continent should reach 30'C and I would not be surprised to see my current forecast upgraded towards that, briefly. But my forecast is based on what I think is the most likely outcome.
It is certainly going to be an interesting week for me to be studying the models. We have a bit of dross to get out of the way first though.
Tuesday will be rather cloudy, there could be a little bit of light rain at times. The Atlantic is trying to bring in weather fronts, but high pressure is trying to build from the south, neither win, hence cloud and meh - but this is a good thing in the scheme of things, trust me! 16'C.
Wednesday has low pressure to the north, so a band of rain will try to cross but it will in the end just be cloud, and may feel quite humid perhaps, 18'C. If you are lucky and get some sunshine before the band of cloud then 20'C for a while.
Thursday will feel fresher, but be sunnier. Still enough cloud around and there is a potential for an isolated shower, 16'C.
Friday should be a lovely day as the Azores high pressure cell starts to become connected with the European high pressure cell, and therefore plenty of sunshine, some clouds, 20'C I hope - maybe slightly less.
Saturday may be cloudier, but warmer, 21'C.
Sunday, sunny, 25'C maybe, and maybe a thunderstorm later on. Maybe.
Monday, chance of thunderstorms, it should still be warm and also humid, 25'C.
Sunday and Monday are the days where it really could be upgraded significantly with regards to temperatures - but also the chance of rain, and heavy downpours at that.
Then after that it looks like high pressure will build again but with cooler and fresher weather, say 17'C. But warming up again quite quickly...
This is shaping up to be a really good summer, fingers crossed.
Monday, 16 May 2011
Saturday, 14 May 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 12th May 2011
Yes I know it is technically Saturday but I did write most of this on Thursday but the blogger service has been down for a while.
In summary - average temperatures at best, and sometimes showery but hopefully warming up for the last few days of the month (though maybe not dry).
And in detail:
Friday will be fair, with an increasing chance of showers in the afternoon and more likely in the evening, 16'C.
Saturday very similar, fair with showers in the afternoon and evening, cool at 14'C with a north-westerly breeze.
Sunday, same story. Fair with showers possible, breezy and fairly cool,14'C.
Monday should be cloudy with some outbreaks of rain in the afternoon, 15'C.
Tuesday I expect to be fairly cloudy, perhaps a little sun but also some showers, a noticeable westerly wind, maybe 17'C if we are lucky.
Wednesday again quite cloudy with a band of rain, windy, 15'C.
Maybe a couple more showery days, but as I mentioned earlier, something more pleasant to come, and maybe warmer around 27th, give or take but with the chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday, 11 May 2011
Quick Weather Update
It definitely looks like we have seen the best of the weather for a while, with the next 10 days looking increasingly cool, often cloudy with showers most days.
Swings and roundabouts, don't forget, we have been very lucky with the warmth as this temperature anomoly chart of global temperatures during April 2011 shows.
I am still expecting some hot weather during June, it isn't that far away. As soon as I see signs of it developing, I will let you know.
Next detailed forecast will be on Thursday evening.
Swings and roundabouts, don't forget, we have been very lucky with the warmth as this temperature anomoly chart of global temperatures during April 2011 shows.
I am still expecting some hot weather during June, it isn't that far away. As soon as I see signs of it developing, I will let you know.
Next detailed forecast will be on Thursday evening.
Monday, 9 May 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 9th May 2011
I hope you enjoyed the pouring rain at the weekend - I did. I was walking through the centre of Reading around 1/2am and overtook, with my excellent umbrella, a rather attractive young woman who was getting rather soaked - I had to offer for her to share my umbrella until she got to her destination. Sadly she was married - always the way - but at least I had done a good deed for the day.
I feel this will be repeated, the heavy downpour rain after warm weather, a couple of times, but not for a while, maybe the end of May, more likely in June.
For now, we actually have some colder than average weather coming our way, just in time for the weekend. Well, we have been pretty damn lucky the last few weeks so we cannot complain. And I don't see it lasting too long on current forecasts.
Tuesday, the low pressure that has been sat to the west of the UK starts to drift northwards, the weather should be sunny, some clouds, chance of a shower but nothing too significant, 19'C.
Wednesday I expect more in the way of cloud, but still reasonable amounts of sunshine, also more showers around, fairly small showers but they could be quite sharp, a little more average temperatures, 16'C.
Thursday, high pressure is building to the south-west, this low pressure is finally starting to shift its arse in between Iceland and Scotland, going in a north-east direction, which will allow some cool north-westerly winds, with some showers, a typical spring day really, 15'C.
Friday, a touch cooler at 14'C, again with the chance of showers, feeling quite fresh.
Saturday sees high pressure building to the west of the UK, allowing a northerly flow of air, coats required as I don't think it will feel nice at all, chance of some hail showers I suspect too, 13'C at best.
Sunday, same again, perhaps a little cooler at 12'C, more showers, again chance of hail.
I am still expecting it to turn warmer for the latter third of May, as per my long-term forecast, though again that will trigger more thundery rain - I am expecting a generally good summer, I really am hopeful.
If we get some fairly hot weather in June followed by some proper downpours, imported from Spain, then I think we can get some more hot weather in July and August, and maybe some very hot weather.
I remain confident of lots of hot sunny weather, interspersed with thundery breakdowns for the summer months, cooling off in the second half of August.
But it will depend on what happens over the next month. I do say this with some hesitation, but fingers crossed, we are back to good summers.
I feel this will be repeated, the heavy downpour rain after warm weather, a couple of times, but not for a while, maybe the end of May, more likely in June.
For now, we actually have some colder than average weather coming our way, just in time for the weekend. Well, we have been pretty damn lucky the last few weeks so we cannot complain. And I don't see it lasting too long on current forecasts.
Tuesday, the low pressure that has been sat to the west of the UK starts to drift northwards, the weather should be sunny, some clouds, chance of a shower but nothing too significant, 19'C.
Wednesday I expect more in the way of cloud, but still reasonable amounts of sunshine, also more showers around, fairly small showers but they could be quite sharp, a little more average temperatures, 16'C.
Thursday, high pressure is building to the south-west, this low pressure is finally starting to shift its arse in between Iceland and Scotland, going in a north-east direction, which will allow some cool north-westerly winds, with some showers, a typical spring day really, 15'C.
Friday, a touch cooler at 14'C, again with the chance of showers, feeling quite fresh.
Saturday sees high pressure building to the west of the UK, allowing a northerly flow of air, coats required as I don't think it will feel nice at all, chance of some hail showers I suspect too, 13'C at best.
Sunday, same again, perhaps a little cooler at 12'C, more showers, again chance of hail.
I am still expecting it to turn warmer for the latter third of May, as per my long-term forecast, though again that will trigger more thundery rain - I am expecting a generally good summer, I really am hopeful.
If we get some fairly hot weather in June followed by some proper downpours, imported from Spain, then I think we can get some more hot weather in July and August, and maybe some very hot weather.
I remain confident of lots of hot sunny weather, interspersed with thundery breakdowns for the summer months, cooling off in the second half of August.
But it will depend on what happens over the next month. I do say this with some hesitation, but fingers crossed, we are back to good summers.
Thursday, 5 May 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 5th May 2011
Well hello and welcome to another weather forecast.
Remember rain? It is coming back. Don't be afraid - we need it, and if we are to have a good summer, we need to get the rain out of the way now. I remain confident of a good summer.
Whilst there is plenty of rain to expect - there is also going to be sunshine and warmth to enjoy too.
Friday will be quite sunny, but there will definitely be cloud around. It will feel warm and perhaps quite humid, 21'C. Later in the evening there is a good chance of some heavy and thundery showers coming up from France. 60% chance of catching one in Reading is my estimate.
Saturday will have plenty of cloud, but I hope it might turn sunny in the afternoon, there could be some bits of showery rain around too, but again later in the evening it could turn rather wet and perhaps thundery. Warm and humid once more, 21'C, possibly 23'C or more if lucky.
Sunday and this low pressure to the west of Ireland that I have been talking about for a while is starting to make its presence felt, I am expecting a few hours of heavy rain, though Reading and anywhere further south will probably escape the heaviest, but that is not certain. 17'C.
Monday looks sunnier, but the potential for rain is there, especially further west I feel, 19'C but don't be surprised if it is 15'C and wet for a while instead.
From then on I am guessing as to individual days. But I am expecting a pattern of cooler showery days, around 16'C, interspersed with warmer sunnier days, 20'C.
But the overall theme I believe is for it to become more unsettled - but most periods of rain will only last a couple of hours, there will be plenty of drier and some sunshine too.
I do have fears for some torrential downpours in June, perhaps leading to flooding. I could be wrong, but all the synoptics are pointing this way.
But I still believe we are going to have a good summer.
Remember rain? It is coming back. Don't be afraid - we need it, and if we are to have a good summer, we need to get the rain out of the way now. I remain confident of a good summer.
Whilst there is plenty of rain to expect - there is also going to be sunshine and warmth to enjoy too.
Friday will be quite sunny, but there will definitely be cloud around. It will feel warm and perhaps quite humid, 21'C. Later in the evening there is a good chance of some heavy and thundery showers coming up from France. 60% chance of catching one in Reading is my estimate.
Saturday will have plenty of cloud, but I hope it might turn sunny in the afternoon, there could be some bits of showery rain around too, but again later in the evening it could turn rather wet and perhaps thundery. Warm and humid once more, 21'C, possibly 23'C or more if lucky.
Sunday and this low pressure to the west of Ireland that I have been talking about for a while is starting to make its presence felt, I am expecting a few hours of heavy rain, though Reading and anywhere further south will probably escape the heaviest, but that is not certain. 17'C.
Monday looks sunnier, but the potential for rain is there, especially further west I feel, 19'C but don't be surprised if it is 15'C and wet for a while instead.
From then on I am guessing as to individual days. But I am expecting a pattern of cooler showery days, around 16'C, interspersed with warmer sunnier days, 20'C.
But the overall theme I believe is for it to become more unsettled - but most periods of rain will only last a couple of hours, there will be plenty of drier and some sunshine too.
I do have fears for some torrential downpours in June, perhaps leading to flooding. I could be wrong, but all the synoptics are pointing this way.
But I still believe we are going to have a good summer.
Wednesday, 4 May 2011
Hailstorm In Portugal
Footage of the aftermath of a tremendous hailstorm in Portugal from last Friday.
Another Quick Update
Slight change from Monday's forecast in that I think Saturday will not be quite as warm as I originally expected, and will have more chance of showery rain than I expected. Say about 20'C.
Sunday also likely to be cloudier and cooler than I originally expected, now I reckon about 17'C.
Sunday also likely to be cloudier and cooler than I originally expected, now I reckon about 17'C.
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
Quick Update
Still looking good for a warm up towards the end of the week as expected, 22-25'C on Friday and Saturday, followed by showers, perhaps thundery, late on Saturday and the chance of a band of heavy rain, perhaps quite a downpour on Sunday, but details are still uncertain on how that will work out.
Warmest April On Record
The Met Office have released provisional figures suggesting that April was the warmest April on record, and also one of the driest.
I believe that this will be confirmed with offical figures next week.
I think this bodes well for a good summer, even if we (hopefully) get some downpours during May and June.
I believe that this will be confirmed with offical figures next week.
I think this bodes well for a good summer, even if we (hopefully) get some downpours during May and June.
Monday, 2 May 2011
Future Thoughts
I am becoming increasingly convinced that we will see our highest temperature records being broken during the latter part of July, or during August, possibly well above 40'C.
It could of course change, but the patterns right now suggest that at some point we are going to experience an unusual level of heat in the UK.
It could of course change, but the patterns right now suggest that at some point we are going to experience an unusual level of heat in the UK.
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 2nd May 2011
This week looks very interesting. We may go from having a frost to baking hot sunshine in just a few days, all because of how the air masses are circulating. One assumes that at some point these contrasting air masses are going to produce some serious downpours of rain, perhaps some cracking thunderstorms, and maybe even something more spectacular. But whether it happens in the UK, or somewhere else over the near continent, is still up for discussion.
I am truly looking forward to a very enjoyable couple of month's weather, from a meteorologists point of view.
Tuesday will see the cold air becoming entrenched, temporarily, across the UK, so whilst it will be fine and sunny, with some clouds, it is going to feel cold at 14'C. Which is actually only slightly below average for this time of year. And overnight there could be a frost - yes - your car windscreen might need scraping.
Wednesday will have subtle changes, the area of low pressure that I mentioned in my previous forecast is not making as much progress towards the UK as I originally expected, so it will sit out in the Atlantic, and the wind will now start to come from the south - yes, the warmest possible direction. But we have a lot of cold air over us so it will take its time to have an impact. Expect sunshine, and hope for 17'C.
Thursday I think will see more cloud being imported, but after a chilly start, more warmth, despite less sunshine than the day before, 19'C - 21'C if it is sunnier than I currently expect.
Friday should be pretty damn excellent, still some cloud around, but temperatures of 21'C, possibly 23'C in some areas. A very small chance, say 5% of a shower very late on.
Saturday sees the southerly flow of air quite nicely, but also the low pressure to the west finally starting to come in. So my confidence on my forecast is diminishing rapidly now. The most likely outcome is sunshine but plenty of cloud at times, 24'C with a shower later. I would not be surprised to see 27'C instead, and some torrential thunderstorms to finish with. Or 17'C with cloud and rain.
Sunday I expect this warmth to be pushed away, with rain. It could be heavy, some places might get an absolute soaking - others very little. 22'C is the most likely temperature but this could vary quite a bit either way, depending on what has gone before.
That area of low pressure looks set to influence our weather, one way or another, for much of the month. I would not be surprised if it ended up sat over the UK for several days bringing a shitload of rain and some localised flooding. But that is 7-10 days away, maybe more. Perhaps 18th May is a day to note down for potential significant downpours.
Any questions, you know where to find me :-)
I am truly looking forward to a very enjoyable couple of month's weather, from a meteorologists point of view.
Tuesday will see the cold air becoming entrenched, temporarily, across the UK, so whilst it will be fine and sunny, with some clouds, it is going to feel cold at 14'C. Which is actually only slightly below average for this time of year. And overnight there could be a frost - yes - your car windscreen might need scraping.
Wednesday will have subtle changes, the area of low pressure that I mentioned in my previous forecast is not making as much progress towards the UK as I originally expected, so it will sit out in the Atlantic, and the wind will now start to come from the south - yes, the warmest possible direction. But we have a lot of cold air over us so it will take its time to have an impact. Expect sunshine, and hope for 17'C.
Thursday I think will see more cloud being imported, but after a chilly start, more warmth, despite less sunshine than the day before, 19'C - 21'C if it is sunnier than I currently expect.
Friday should be pretty damn excellent, still some cloud around, but temperatures of 21'C, possibly 23'C in some areas. A very small chance, say 5% of a shower very late on.
Saturday sees the southerly flow of air quite nicely, but also the low pressure to the west finally starting to come in. So my confidence on my forecast is diminishing rapidly now. The most likely outcome is sunshine but plenty of cloud at times, 24'C with a shower later. I would not be surprised to see 27'C instead, and some torrential thunderstorms to finish with. Or 17'C with cloud and rain.
Sunday I expect this warmth to be pushed away, with rain. It could be heavy, some places might get an absolute soaking - others very little. 22'C is the most likely temperature but this could vary quite a bit either way, depending on what has gone before.
That area of low pressure looks set to influence our weather, one way or another, for much of the month. I would not be surprised if it ended up sat over the UK for several days bringing a shitload of rain and some localised flooding. But that is 7-10 days away, maybe more. Perhaps 18th May is a day to note down for potential significant downpours.
Any questions, you know where to find me :-)
Late Night Weather Thoughts - Sunday 2nd May 2011
Well, it is Monday really...I am seeing some cold nights with the potential of frost! Quickly followed next weekend by 28'C heat. Just a thought - not a forecast!
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