Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 30th May 2011

I have just suddenly realised that it is Monday, and therefore a weather forecast is required.

I don't expect that many people are that interested in what the weather is going to be right now, after a fairly miserable bank-holiday weather-wise (though a bloody good fun one!), but I am interested, and I think many should be.

Sadly it is one of those forecasts where my confidence diminishes quite repidly towards the exact outcome especially from next weekend onwards, but I have ideas.

What I do expect though is as follows.  I could actually just re-write what I put on my last forecast.  My last one I am very happy with.

Tuesday will see some sunshine as high pressure builds, but some cloud will bubble up and there is the potential for a couple of showers, quite cool, 15'C.
Wednesday may be less sunny, in some ways - I think there could be quite a bit of high cloud making the sun somewhat hazy, but it will be starting to feel quite warm at 19'C, maybe 20'C.
Thursday - as previously promised, sunshine and warmth is back, there may be a bit of cloud around but not too much, a proper lovely day, 22'C, maybe 24'C.
Friday will be similar, sunshine, some cloud potential and temperatures between 22'C and 24'C with a warm feeling breeze.


Saturday is where I begin to lose confidence on the specifics, but it will remain warm, just how warm will depend on how the developing high pressure situates itself around the UK, I would say 60% confident of another very warm and sunny day at around 25'C.  I do however think that there is a potential for cloud and perhaps a thunderstorm instead, around 22'C.
Sunday again I am unsure, at a guess, it will still be quite warm at around 20'C with some cloud and the potential for bits of rain.

My best guess is that it will then briefly become cool, perhaps unsettled, before warming up again.

I think that there may be a significant rainfall event around 15th June, but again, that I am not definite about.

With better weather returning after.

I think that is a forecast worth reading - the promise of sunshine and warmth, and the potential for something interesting later.  I hope you enjoy it as much as I do.

Joplin Tornado

If you want to see something scary and disturbing, then the video of these people surviving one of the most powerful and destructive tornadoes, then this is for you.

It is definitely not recommended if you are looking to watch the beauty of weather.

Slightly less disturbing is the aftermath video.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 26th May 2011

I enjoyed seeing those dark and nasty shower clouds today.  I much prefer active weather to dross.

But we have a dross weekend ahead.  Fast forward a week and I am fully confident that things will be much better.

Friday will see the low pressure which brought all of those showers push away to the east, so it should be fair, some cloud, some sun, chance of a light shower in the early afternoon, but even in the sunshine it will only be 15'C thanks to the cold air that it pulled in.
Saturday we are in this westerly flow of cloud, and perhaps bits and pieces of rain, but I would not be surprised if it stayed dry, 15'C at best, oh and quite breezy.
Sunday will be similarly miserable to Saturday, but we gain a little warmth at 17'C if nothing else.
Monday will see a band of patchy rain cross from the north-west at some point during the day, probably in the afternoon, it may well start bright, 16'C.  However, I do not rule out this band of rain coming in the evening, and there being enough sun beforehand for it to actually be a pleasant day and reach 19'C.  I favour the former outcome, but I have to mention this possibility too.  65/35 chance in my opinion.  Further east of Reading may well be like this.
Tuesday is the day that the big area of high pressure to our south-west finally gets its chance to move towards the UK, so say hello again to sunshine.  However and there are a few of them - there is plenty of cloud potential, there may be a light shower and I doubt it will be any warmer than 15'C even if it is sunny.
Wednesday should be fairly sunny and may even reach 18'C.  I would not be surprised if my next forecast upgrades this.
Thursday, what cloud there is should clear and it should warm up, 22'C is realistic.  24'C is possible.
Friday, sunny and very warm, 24'C.

Saturday and Sunday may even reach into the category of hot - say 26'C-27'C.

I do expect June to be dominated by high pressure, and to be very warm or hot at times.  Not all the time though.

Happy days are around the corner.

Paul Hudson's Blog & Summary of Summer Forecasts

This blog post makes an interesting read, and sums up various summer forecasts.

I still expect a warm June, hopefully hot at times, but also a couple of downpours.  July to be hot and sunny at times, though perhaps less so towards the end.  August to be more unsettled but not a wash-out with some nicer parts.

That Joe Bastardi has also said that he expects a prolonged and cold winter, also makes me less confident that the coming winter will be less cold than recent years.  Sadly if I want to receive his forecasts I would have to pay a monthly subscription nowadays - and he is probably one of my favourite forecastsers to read as I have learnt so much from him over the years.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 23rd May 2011

Weather forecasting is complex in it's difficulty.  Sometimes it is so difficult to know what is going to happen two days ahead, but yet you can be confident of what is 10 days ahead.  Other times it is all predictable for weeks on end.  And then it is so confusing that it changes from day to day.

I think I am in the first category at the moment.  Sadly I don't see significant periods of warm and settled weather until around 4th/5th June.  Not to say that there won't be a couple of warm and sunny days though.

At the moment, the jet-stream is strong and heading straight to the UK - hence the storm over Scotland today.  But it should drift northwards and reduce in intensity at the same time, in a couple of weeks.

Those of us in the south, will get the southern edge of the weather systems, so cloud, and sometimes rain, but also better days in between.

Tuesday will see high pressure building after the storm system to the north clears away, sunshine and clouds, not especially warm, 16'C.
Wednesday sees the next low pressure system heading towards Scotland, but it should be sunny in Reading, and maybe quite warm around 19'C if lucky, there may be some rain overnight.
Thursday doesn't look especially pleasant, with a cool north-westerly wind, perhaps only 13'C, and the potential for some blustery showers.  How autumnal.
Friday and high pressure tries to build, but not really succeeding.  It should be dry, it may be sunny, but not that warm at all, 15'C.


I am not yet confident of an outcome for the bank holiday weekend.

I would expect another area of low pressure to develop, bringing some bits of rain and wind during Saturday or Sunday, on current output.  But I am not convinced, it may well be dry.  I am hopeful that temperatures will at least pick up to around 18'C.

From then on, I expect high pressure to start to build at some point over or around the UK.  Bringing sunshine, and eventually much warmer weather.  I'm looking at around 5th June for that to start.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 20th May 2011

Yes I know I normally do my forecasts on a Thursday evening, but a bottle of wine and a late night were not helping me last night, especially with very confusing models at the moment, which keep flip-flopping every time I look at them.

The first few days I am fairly confident with - after that my confidence dimishes rapidly.  Especially given that my previous forecast for this Sunday and Monday is going to turn out quite wrong!

Friday to be fairly cloudy, some sunny breaks, also the chance of a light shower or two later in the day, 16'C.
Saturday sees low pressure heading towards Scotland, and for us in Reading, there will be a band of rain overnight, but the day should be pretty sunny, some cloud, quite warm at around 19'C.
Sunday will be windy and cool, 15'C, fair with the chance of a light shower or two.
Monday sees a rather nasty low pressure to Scotland again, for this time of year, but down south it should remain mostly dry, if rather cloudy, 17'C.
Tuesday, dry with sunny spells, 16'C.

After that I am not so confident.  At a guess, fairly sunny and 20'C on Wednesday, fairly sunny and 23'C on Thursday - but only 40% confident on this.

I always thought that it would warm up towards the end of the month, and I still believe that is the most likely outcome but I am not yet convinced that it will happen.

I hope come Monday, I can promise temperatures of 25'C for later next week and the weekend - but don't be surprised if I cannot and it ends up being miserable instead.

Still hopeful of high pressure for the beginning of June over the UK, and eventually becoming hot.

Normal Service Not Happening

I would give you a weather forecast normally on a Thursday evening, but the models I study are absolutely all over the place, so take hints from previous suggestions and I will try to give you a decent forecast tomorrow when I get my head around them, as they are so messy and conflicting right now!  I need time to think. Apologies.

Quick Update

OK, it looks like the heat will be pushed much further east of the UK as the Atlantic gets going and the jet-stream powers up and heads towards us.  For those of us in the south, this will mean reasonable temperatures when cloudy, warm when sunny - it should have been better, but for the jet-stream.

It is still May, this kind of weather is a good harbinger of a good summer in my opinion.

So discount my hopes for 25'C on Sunday and Monday - I will be wrong on that part of my forecast - but it should still be quite pleasant.

Am I Wrong?

There is a lot of doom and gloom among model watchers this morning as there is a significant downgrade to the models from what I based my weather forecast on yesterday.

I am still sticking to it though.  But I am less confident of any potential heat and thunderstorms on Sunday/Monday.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 16th May 2011

You will be pleased to know, that as per my long-range forecast, things are about to warm up for the last third of the month.

I'm going to tell you what it looks like for the rest of the month, but I would not be surprised if it ends up better than current predictions.  During the weekend, the near continent should reach 30'C and I would not be surprised to see my current forecast upgraded towards that, briefly.  But my forecast is based on what I think is the most likely outcome.

It is certainly going to be an interesting week for me to be studying the models.  We have a bit of dross to get out of the way first though.

Tuesday will be rather cloudy, there could be a little bit of light rain at times.  The Atlantic is trying to bring in weather fronts, but high pressure is trying to build from the south, neither win, hence cloud and meh - but this is a good thing in the scheme of things, trust me!  16'C.
Wednesday has low pressure to the north, so a band of rain will try to cross but it will in the end just be cloud, and may feel quite humid perhaps, 18'C.  If you are lucky and get some sunshine before the band of cloud then 20'C for a while.
Thursday will feel fresher, but be sunnier.  Still enough cloud around and there is a potential for an isolated shower, 16'C.
Friday should be a lovely day as the Azores high pressure cell starts to become connected with the European high pressure cell, and therefore plenty of sunshine, some clouds, 20'C I hope - maybe slightly less.
Saturday may be cloudier, but warmer, 21'C.
Sunday, sunny, 25'C maybe, and maybe a thunderstorm later on.  Maybe.
Monday, chance of thunderstorms, it should still be warm and also humid, 25'C.

Sunday and Monday are the days where it really could be upgraded significantly with regards to temperatures - but also the chance of rain, and heavy downpours at that.

Then after that it looks like high pressure will build again but with cooler and fresher weather, say 17'C.  But warming up again quite quickly...

This is shaping up to be a really good summer, fingers crossed.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 12th May 2011

Yes I know it is technically Saturday but I did write most of this on Thursday but the blogger service has been down for a while.

In summary - average temperatures at best, and sometimes showery but hopefully warming up for the last few days of the month (though maybe not dry).

And in detail:

Friday will be fair, with an increasing chance of showers in the afternoon and more likely in the evening, 16'C.

Saturday very similar, fair with showers in the afternoon and evening, cool at 14'C with a north-westerly breeze.

Sunday, same story.  Fair with showers possible, breezy and fairly cool,14'C.

Monday should be cloudy with some outbreaks of rain in the afternoon, 15'C.

Tuesday I expect to be fairly cloudy, perhaps a little sun but also some showers, a noticeable westerly wind, maybe 17'C if we are lucky.

Wednesday again quite cloudy with a band of rain, windy, 15'C.

Maybe a couple more showery days, but as I mentioned earlier, something more pleasant to come, and maybe warmer around 27th, give or take but with the chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Quick Weather Update

It definitely looks like we have seen the best of the weather for a while, with the next 10 days looking increasingly cool, often cloudy with showers most days.

Swings and roundabouts, don't forget, we have been very lucky with the warmth as this temperature anomoly chart of global temperatures during April 2011 shows.

I am still expecting some hot weather during June, it isn't that far away.  As soon as I see signs of it developing, I will let you know.

Next detailed forecast will be on Thursday evening.