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Welcome to my weather blog. I produce two weather forecasts per week, normally Monday and Thursday evening, and also put links to any other interesting weather information, and crazy weather videos that I discover. The forecast is based on my expectations for the Reading area, UK. If you want a forecast for your area, please e-mail me or comment below the blog post.

Thursday 10 January 2013

Thursday 10th January 2013

Model watching is never easy. I have bad news...and good news!

Saturday's snow event is massively downgraded. Rain will set in during the morning and it will still very likely turn to snow somewhere between 3 and 6pm. However the amount of precipitation is much reduced, and I would say 3cm is the most likely amount of snow. That said, the M4 is the boundary between rain and snow so it might not even snow that much. There is still a 20% of NO snow. 3'C at most during the day, down to -5'C overnight and icy.

Sunday will see the cold easterly wind dig in and snow showers could get as far inland as Reading - potentially a cm or two, but it there is a better chance it stay dry. No chance of rain - it would be snow. 0'C by day, -6'C overnight.

Monday will start sunny but very cold, a band of cloud will approach from the west with snow for the evening and overnight. You would be advised a close eye on this one as it could cause chaos if it arrives in rush hour. 3-5cm quite possible even in low-lying Reading. -1'C during the day, -3'C by night.

Tuesday and Wednesday remain cold or very cold with further snow showers possible. 0'C by day (or less), -3'C at the most by night...much colder if clear skies.

Then there is a lot of uncertainty for Thursday onwards, but there are realistic chances of possibly the most memorable winter event of my lifetime. Some of the model projections are showing huge amounts of snow for the south.

If what is currently projected comes off in its entirety there would be a huge amount of chaos for several days.

However - I cannot emphasise enough how often models change and how often snowfall events get downgraded during cold snaps (though they also appear out of nowhere!!)

It is more likely to stay cold with the potential for further snow for some time. 7-10 days though 7 weeks would not be impossible.

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