Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 28th July 2011

Well I think I got my last forecast pretty much spot on.  Happy days.

The summer theme is set to continue - or at least the English Summer theme is!

Friday sees high pressure over the UK weakening a little, as low pressures slowly approach from west and east, but it will stay dry, it should start sunny but I am expecting quite a bit of cloud to build during the day, 21'C.
Saturday will be sunnier, but still some cloud around, warm at 23'C.
Sunday sees low pressure to the north-west of the UK but the sunshine should hang on, though perhaps hazy later on.  Dependant on cloud amounts, it could reach a very warm 25'C, but maybe only 22'C.
Monday sees the low pressure stop moving towards us, the exact details for the day are uncertain but I would rather something fairly cloudy but warm, 22'C, with a very small outside chance of a shower.  It really would only take a slight change in atmospheric conditions for it to be sunny and 25'C.
Tuesday sees a new low pressure approaching from the south-west but nowhere near the UK yet, and a slight southerly breeze may see temperatures reach 25'C, but a 20% chance of a shower in the evening.  Actual - warmer at 26.9'C with showers in the evening - 90% happy with accurary.

Wednesday you can toss a coin for, either the low pressure is over the UK with heavy, thundery rain at times but still warm, at least 22'C.  Or it is hotter and sunnier, at 28'C.  50/50.
Thursday very similar.  It may be thundery and warm, or sunny and hot, possibly up to 30'C.  If hot then I think that will be the last day and to finish with rain and thunder.

Next weekend is too uncertain, considering I am not even sure about Monday!  But I would currently favour showers and 20'C, but it depends on how next week plays out.

I will have more to say on Monday.

Enjoy the sunshine and warmth (do I need to remind you that I promised it a long time ago?!)

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 26th July 2011

I have to say that I am incredibly happy with my recent weather forecasts - I am on top of my game - my predictions of good summer weather are coming true, and the Met Office warnings of a month of rain are total bullshit.  Happy days.  I am truly amazing.

Anyway, enough of the ego, I will give you my new brilliant weather forecast and you should like it.  It isn't going to be perfect, some cloudy days and a chance of thundery showers later in the period, but plenty of dry and at times, sunny and warm weather.

Tuesday will start cloudy but the sun should come through later in the afternoon.  Very small chance of a light shower this morning.  Somewhere between 20'C and 22'C depending on sunshine amounts.
Wednesday again under the influence of high pressure to the west in the Atlantic, it might start sunny but there is an area of cloud expected to spread from the east across a fair amount of England, 18'C if cloudy, but 21'C if the cloud misses you.  Dry.
Thursday sees the opposite with cloud spreading from the west but I am hopeful of much of the day being sunny, and it may even reach 24'C.  Perhaps a light shower in the evening with the expected area of cloud but most likely to stay dry.
Friday will see some sunshine but also some cloud, 21'C, a very small chance of a shower later in the day, 10%.
Saturday should be a good, sunny and dry day, hopefully up to 21'C.  Still some clouds around.
Sunday, sunny, dry and warm, very little cloud, possibly up to 25'C.
Monday should again be sunny, very warm, if not hot, a little cloud, 27'C perhaps.
Tuesday should hopefully be similar, 26'C but the chance of a thundery shower later in the day.

Perhaps some thundery showers or rain midweek next week - but far from certain at the moment.

Hopefully the dry and sunny weather will return.

I do expect a couple of periods of unsettled weather during August, but plenty of dry and at times, sunny weather, sometimes cool but more often average or above average temperatures.

I like this weather forecast, and I hope you do too.

Quick Weather Thoughts Update

I still think that there is a chance of a heat-wave occurring in the UK at the beginning of August, probably only for a few days, temperatures of 35'C widely.

I rate the chance at 35% - previously I stated 60%.

So the chance has diminished as the time approaches but the atmospheric conditions are there for it to happen, and I will inform if it is likely to.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 21st July 2011

I hope you read the Met Office's press releases earlier this week about the next 30 days bringing rain, rain and more rain.

And I hope that you remember my much more positive weather forecasts, whilst recognising the changeable nature, I still think we will be able to class this summer as a decent summer.

I am delighted that the Met Office are so in disagreement with me.

Let battle commence.

If you read my previous forecast (a whole 7 of you did...I am not impressed), then you will know that last weekend's big summer low pressure that has gone to Scandinavia, is expected to head back west towards the UK which is exceptionally unusual, though in it's way is the Azores high pressure to our south-west, ridging towards us.

Friday will have more cloud than sun, but more sun than Thursday, with a 50% chance of a shower. The showers will be very slow moving and will therefore last an hour at minimum for any location.   Hail and thunder possible, but not especially likely.  Maybe 20'C.
Saturday sees the instability dissipate, but the low pressure to the east moves closer, I don't expect anything more than cloud and perhaps some spots of rain, also some brightness is quite possible, around 19'C.
Sunday will be the best day of the weekend, a reasonably good amount of sunshine, some cloud around, 21'C is quite possible which is only marginally below the average for this time of year.
Monday will see warmer air, but also a higher chance of cloud and a shower, 18'C if cloudy but 22'C if luckily sunny.
Tuesday will be cooler at around 18'C but more sunshine, and only a tiny chance of a light shower.
Wednesday should be a good sunny day, 21'C, with a few clouds.  It may be warmer than that.
Thursday looks sunny again as high pressure exerts more influence, 24'C perhaps.

Friday and the next weekend should remain mainly dry, chance of a shower perhaps on Sunday, 24 to 26'C.

I would say that there is a 30% chance of it getting close to 30'C that weekend but if it does then the chance of a late afternoon thundery downpour developing will be quite possible.

I would not at all be surprised if it actually turns out warmer and sunnier than I have predicted, hot rather than warm.

The chance of more unsettled weather looks likely to increase from roughly 4th August to 12th August but it should improve once again after that.

Please, if I am right and the Met Office is wrong, spread the word about my weather forecast.

Enjoy.  And remember - this is the best UK summer since 2006 if nothing else!!

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 18th July 2011

I was delighted today, to come across the following news story in The Sun (don't worry folks, it was the online version, I didn't buy the paper, I am more of an Economist man, or The Daily Star), but anyway, I quote The Sun:

RAIN will lash Britain for the next THIRTY DAYS, forecasters predicted yesterday.

Millions face a holiday washout with storms expected to whip in until at least August 16.

Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3700222/Brolly-upit-will-rain-for-a-month.html#ixzz1STjlQxmw

This is backed up with:

A Met Office spokesman said: "We're only able to forecast for 30 days at a time, and we expect it to remain unsettled for all this period."

It just makes me even more confident that we are going to have a generally decent summer overall.  Whether this 'Met Office spokesman' is a meteorologist or a receptionist, or more likely, a press officer, I do not know.  Changeable would be a better word to use than unsettled, I feel, unless referring to the north of Scotland, or perhaps the East coast of England, for the next 30 days.

I do recognise that it is pretty rubbish right now, and I am not surprised.  I didn't promise a record-breaking summer, just a better one than the past four, and I am still confident of good weather to come.

Tuesday will be an improvement, something in the way of sunshine, though a slightly cool breeze, and a couple of showers around, but it might actually reach 20'C.

Wednesday will be fairly similar, plenty of cloud but some sunshine at times, some showers developing, and perhaps a 20'C.

Thursday again remains showery, and perhaps cooler at around 18'C - but a ridge of high pressure is starting to build from the west.

Friday is a slightly funny one as the low pressure that we had the previous weekend will re-intensify over Scandinavia and start to head back towards the UK, a very unusual pattern, I do not ever recall seeing this, it shouldn't make too much progress and it should be mainly dry, fairly cloudy, 19'C but there is a chance of something damp.

Saturday, because of this unusual feature is a little uncertain, I expect more in the way of cloud than sun, but there could be a period of rain for the eastern side of the UK, quite whether it will reach Reading, I do not know.  So temperatures somewhere between 17'C and 20'C depending on rain/fair.

Sunday should see high pressure start to build and it should be sunny, with clouds, and still the chance of a shower, it may reach 22'C.

From then on, I expect us to become influenced by the extending Azores high which sits to our south-west all year long - if we get lucky, a cell of high pressure may develop over us and if it does it will be stubborn to move throughout August, however, at the moment, it looks more likely that it will bring drier (not totally dry), sunnier and warmer weather.

But with low pressure expected to our east over Europe for much of the next few weeks, it will undoubtedly have a wet influence from time to time.  But I am hopeful of a 70/30 split in favour of good summer days to less good ones.

 

So a showery but reasonable first half of August, and a fair, perhaps warm, second half of August.

I think that counts as a generally decent English summer.  Perfectly imperfect.

Oh and in case any of my friends, or perhaps their mother's, have any concerns over my reference to 'ladyboy ex-lovers' last Monday, I was being a tad facetious in my attempted humour.  I can confirm that I am yet to visit Thailand.

Only 4 months until snow.  Sorry.

Solvenia Supercells

Maybe I need to go to Slovenia if I want to chase storms...these photos look quite impressive.  A bit cheaper to get to than Texas!

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 14th July 2011

The topsy-turvy summer continues.

I still think that if you take the summer as a whole, since April, and take it through until the end of September, whilst it will not be remembered as a classic like 2003, it will be remembered as good.

It is certainly an improvement from the previous 4 dreadful summers.

I hope you agree.

Anyway, the details, apart from Friday, it doesn't make pretty reading.  If it is any consolation, there are severe weather warnings out for 18 European countries (the UK isn't one of them) right now.

Friday will be sunny for most of the day, clouding over late in the afternoon with some patchy rain later in the evening, hopefully nothing too heavy, 22'C.
Saturday sees low pressure back in charge, mainly cloudy with some outbreaks of heavy rain - there is a minimal, say 10% chance of getting lucky and only getting a little light rain, perhaps squeeze at 18'C and should finish dry and maybe bright.
Sunday will be quite windy, with showers, but also some sunshine at times, it may even reach 18'C if lucky.  Nature of showers as I regularly point out, mean you could get lucky and stay dry, but also get 10 showers.  There will be plenty around.  Possibly heavy and thundery.
Monday sees a secondary area of low pressure developing as part of the low pressure system, heading for approximately the south of England, or the English channel.  These secondary lows are always hard to predict the exact path of but the most likely outcome is a spell of heavy rain for Reading, and especially anywhere further south.  A chance of missing it, but equally a chance of some very heavy rain.  Maybe only 14'C.  This one won't be certain until Sunday.
Tuesday depends on if Monday happened, if so then sunshine and showers.  Maybe an 18'C.
Wednesday, because of the uncertainty over Monday, I cannot be sure, but I am favouring a cloudy day with some more wind and rain, 18'C.

I am still hopeful of high pressure for next weekend.

Apologies for the uncertainty for Monday onwards but it will be unsettled for a few days, just the horridness of Monday is questionable.

There was a show on BBC1 last night, available on the BBC iplayer, called The Great British Weather.  I think that there are going to be about 4 or 5 episodes, all on a Wednesday night.

The danger of doing a programme on the BBC about a scientific topic about the weather is having to dumb it down enough to the general public without being too condescening, and despite the dumbness of the 3 presenters, they had enough knowledgable folk contributing, and enough scientific explanation to make it well worth a watch, especially if you want to know more about our unique weather pattern in the UK.

I did feel a little like it was the BBC and the Met Office trying to defend their less than glamorous recent forecasting records, but I don't hold them against doing so as they are more accurate than general public opinion would have you believe.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 11th July 2011

Considering that I spend about 3 hours researching and writing each weather forecast, and I am averaging 10 readers per forecast this month, each of my readers can consider themselves to have had about 18 minutes invested in their weather forecasting requirements by me.  I would normally charge £20 an hour, so that is £6 each of value that you are getting from me each time.  I doubt that you can say that about that damn irritating Scottish woman on the BBC.

But the chances are I at least like you, and quite possibly love you.  I do it for the love, not for money.  I don't think I want the pressure of having to provide a paid service.  As long as one person tells me how much they appreciate my weather forecast every month, then I will carry on doing it.

Did you believe me a little while back when I said summer was around the corner?  I decided about 3 hours afterwards that I had clearly done a lot of hallucinogenic drugs that morning and was deluded.

But don't fear.  I later realised that I hadn't (by the way for the purposes of any members of HR/family/employers reading this, that isn't really my cup of tea, I am just being facetious...I was drunk, blame the Absinthe).  I am going to be right.  Honestly, I am.  Trust me - I am a weather forecaster.

I don't see it as going down as a classic summer unless we get lucky, but a generally good one, and we deserve it after the last 4 summers and the recession, damn you Gordon Brown (though I suspect you don't have Sven Vath-like qualities of controlling the weather, causing the recession was enough...yes I know all the individuals that took part and encouraged reckless lending are also to blame).

I'm going off on tangents again.  I have been absolutely terrible for this today.  I shouldn't be writing blogs today, I have partied too much to make any coherent sense.  But it is my duty.

Oh shit, I sounded like Gordon Brown then.  For the last sentence of the last paragraph, I don't think he knew how to party.  Though he did speak a lot of bullshit.  Just like me today.  I intended to write a blog post about the demise of the News Of The World earlier, I only had two short sentences in mind, but I ended up on a long rambling blog about Jimmy Bullard.  It kind of makes sense in my head as to how I got onto the subject matter.

Sorry.  I will try my hardest only to mention weather stuff for the rest of the post.  I make no promises to achieve this though.

So, the rest of the summer will not be perfect, there will very likely be more rainy days, some cooler days and some windy days.  But also plenty of days like today.

Onto the details for my friends, enemies, dancing partners and ladyboy ex-lovers:

Tuesday will be fairly cloudy, it might start bright, but there is a chance of some rain in the south of England in the afternoon, debatable as to whether it will get as far north as Reading, 50%.  Reasonably warm at 19'C, maybe a 21'C if we avoid the rain and get a little bit of sunshine.
Wednesday looks a reasonable day, probably cloudy to start with but it should brighten up, somewhere between 18'C and 20'C depending on sunshine amounts.
Thursday looks a better day, similar to Monday, with a fair amount of sunshine, some cloud, temperatures hopefully reaching 22'C.
Friday should start sunny but low pressure is approaching from the west with some outbreaks of rain for later in the day, exact timing is not guaranteed, nor the amount of rain, but I would expect by the evening.  Depending on how long it stays reasonable for, it might reach 23'C but don't be too surprised if instead the rain arrives by afternoon and therefore only 19'C.

And the weekend for my friends who declined my invite this weekend to see Sven in Leeds and are going to Lovebox in London instead on Saturday?

With the amount of evil techno Sven played, and the fact that he cleared the heavy rainclouds away from the festival site and kept it glorious all day, he might be getting a little revenge.  Sorry.

I don't envisage it being too bad though.

A north-westerly wind with low pressure very close to the UK, bringing cool winds and showers.  You may get lucky and stay dry - after all the forecast for my festival was for showers but it ended lovely and sunny all day with just the one light shower when queuing to get in...but Sven does seemingly control the weather, as I said so you might get 5 showers.  Not likely to be higher than 17'C.  I will update you on my Thursday forecast.  I will do my best to control the weather...maybe it was actually me rather than Sven who sorted it out on Saturday?  Surely not?

However the Met Office are not as optimistic as me, and I quote 'Very unsettled, with strong winds and spells of rain spreading from the west by the weekend'.  But you know I am better, ha ha ;-)

I really need some sleep so I shall try to finish it off.

Sunday still this cool wind with more showers.  You are not guaranteed a shower but you may get 5.  It might not get above 15'C if there isn't much sunshine.

Next week looks quite changeable with some sunny warm days, and some cooler showery days, maybe some longer spells of rain and wind.  But still pretty reasonable and I have high hopes for the last weekend of July being sunny and warm.  Maybe very warm.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 7th July 2011

I'm going to refrain from making any outlandish statements - the potential for more hot weather later in the month is still there - but it was there last summer and look what happened.  Actually, last summer, the jet-stream (in very similar pattern to now) pushed all the heat we and much of Europe should have had in late summer to Russia where they had weeks of 30'C or more heatwave, forest fires, incredibly high pollution in Moscow and some other cities.  I'll stick with what we get, thanks.  Though a bit more dry weather and sunshine wouldn't go amiss.  We should get some.

Friday will continue unsettled with heavy showers and perhaps some longer outbreaks of rain.  17'C but not really that important.
Saturday, this low pressure finally pulls away to the north-east, which is a good thing in the short term, perhaps not so much later on, but basically, Saturday should be decent weather, sunshine and reasonable amount of cloud - enjoy it!  There is a chance of a shower, but it is only just worth mentioning, 20'C.
Sunday should be quite sunny, there will be cloud,. but it will feel good outside, and maybe up to 22'C with enough sun, a 15% chance of a late afternoon shower.
Monday will be dry and fairly sunny, but our airflow is from the far north, so 22'C at best.
Tuesday will again be pleasant, some cloud, but plenty of sun, a cool airflow still, so no warmer than 22'C.
Wednesday looks pretty spot on for sunshine, a few clouds, again not especially warm for the time of year, 21'C.

Thursday I am not so sure about, it really does depend on the next low pressure and how it behaves.

I've run out of words - forgive me I have a festival to attend shortly.

I still insist that summer so far has been ok, compared to previous years.  But there is currently no sign of persistant hotness.

Enjoy the sunshine behind the clouds...and be ready for winter when it comes.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 5th July 2011

Remember the forecast I confidently issued of summer, summer and yet more summer on Friday?

Well, sod's law that the next models I looked at a few hours later showed two weeks worth of well-below average temperatures, rain nearly every day, often heavy and very little sunshine.  And the next ones, and the next ones...and then I gave up in dispair.

I'm not overly worried, these things happen, and I think on Friday perhaps I was guilty of rushing my forecast and not taking enough data into account - I just used my favoured model that had been produced that morning (there are about 50-60 sets of data produced each day for Europe that I am aware of), and didn't look at enough variety.

So today, I have looked at many more - and I remain hopeful.  The main difference from Friday's forecast is more unsettled this week with more showers and heavier showers than I originally expected and longer until it improves.  Not actually a million miles away from my last forecast - nowhere near as awful as it looked 3 hours after my last forecast!!

Details...

Did you bring an umbrella today?

Today starting nice and maybe reaching 23'C but cloud increasing during the afternoon with some showery rain, which could be quite heavy at times, clearing during the evening.
Wednesday will see low pressure push into the west of the UK, with showers developing, but also some sunshine, much fresher at 17'C.  I'd say 80% chance of a shower.  Maybe some rain overnight.
Thursday has plenty more showers, more than Wednesday so very unlikely to stay dry, and heavier and possibly thundery, 17'C at best.
Friday will be a repeat of Thursday, 90% chance of a shower or three, heavy and possibly thundery, maybe 18'C in any sunshine.
Saturday should see the low pressure start to pull away, less showers though still a couple around, 50% chance of a couple, some sunshine and maybe up to 20'C if quite sunny.
Sunday should be pretty sunny, still some cloud and a small, 30% chance of a shower, warmer at 21'C.

From then on I am hopeful of a few more days of settled and warmer weather, perhaps up to 24'C, but I remain wary of some more unsettled weather for the middle of the month.

Still hopeful of more good weather during July - it is certainly looking much better than the previous 4 July's - just not quite as good as it could be.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 1st July 2011

I hope that you are enjoying your English summer.  Plenty more of it to come.  I always said it would come good in July, with a few brief interruptions, and I am sticking with it.  I am getting more confident.  Autumn I am not yet sure of, so I guess it will be much of a muchness, except of the cold plunge in November into December which I fully expect.

I am quite confident of heatwave conditions returning later in July, with temperatures going over 35'C - I would say that there is a 60% chance.  Pooh-pooh me if you like by me not saying yes or no as to whether it will happen, but it hasn't happened since 2006 I think, so I think I am being quite bold in this suggestion, it does require certain dynamics to be in place which are quite fragile, as you saw the weekend just gone.

So, onto a jolly good forecast (and I think my recent ones have been pretty on the ball - feel free to disagree - I can only improve).

Saturday will be another of those days like we have had with glorious sunshine to start, but the sun heats up some clouds and stops it from being a perfect day, but it will be nice, and should be a shade less cloud than the day before, 20'C or 22'C depending on sunshine amounts.  5% chance of a light shower later in the afternoon.
Sunday, we are still in this nothingness, no high pressure, no low pressure, slightly more sunshine potential again but plenty of cloud too, warmer, 22'C or 24'C depending on sunshine amounts.
Monday is marginally more interesting as low pressure approaches from the west and helps to suck up the warmth, 23'C or 25'C, again depending on the cloud/sun ratio in your exact location.  10% chance of a late sharp shower developing.
Tuesday sees the low pressure trying to move in but not getting too far and maybe even pushed back, more cloud I suspect and slightly cooler, perhaps a sharp shower, 21'C.  Not 100% confident on this.  It will be a reasonable day, whatever happens.
Wednesday should see a band of rain come across if all is coming to plan, as the low pressure gives up and goes northish of the UK, as high pressure seeks an entry from the south-west.  Cooler, 19'C maybe less.
Thursday should be fine, fairly sunny, still not warm, 18'C.
Friday, high pressure extends itself more, sunshine, few clouds 20'C.

And from then on, high pressure takes control, lots of days of 25'C sunshine and maybe getting to 30'C.

And maybe the heatwave?

You heard it here first...I hope.  I bloody well hope I am right on this...