Ex-hurricane Katia is on its way to the UK.
Normally, any hurricanes or tropical storms which go up the eastern side of the US and end up in the Atlantic, either tend to merge into mushy Atlantic storm systems or go up to Iceland.
However the jetstream is focused straight from Canada to the UK, as it has often been this last few months, and is set to take Katia with her, as her own storm system.
Again, hurricanes need very warm waters to fuel themselves, which the Atlantic does not have, so it should decline on its own accord, and be at worst an autumn storm.
But you may have noticed a warming of the air since Hurricane Irene, and also there is currently a depression in the Atlantic spiralling hot air up through Spain and France, some of which will reach the UK - although we ain't going to get much sunshine. Well, I am, as I am going to Ibiza.
Friday sees this warmth pushed up to the UK, and in any sunny breaks it could reach a pleasant 24'C.
Saturday looks like there will be a weak band of rain pushing across, and in the sunshine before or after, depending on the timing of the rain, it should reach 22'C as the rain won't last that long, but it will spoil some of the day.
Sunday, is a little tricky to forecast partly because of Katia, but I expect an area of heavy rain over much of southern England for much of the best part of the day, 17'C at best.
Sunday night and into Monday is where it will get interesting. At best, expect gales with a band of rain, and showers following. Somewhere in the UK will get Katia's severe gales or possibly storm-force winds. Most likely the Scotland area or the north or England - but it could go south. It could. Maybe. 25% chance. I know that doesn't especially help.
Following that, expect a lot of wind and rain and come Wednesday, a northerly plunge of air which may take it down to 15'C.
High pressure may build towards the weekend - but what course will the next hurricane take?! I think she is called Maria.
If, and it is a big if, Katia is going to be a cause for concern to anyone living in England, you won't get much notice, as the track is unpredictable, and until maybe yesterday I was pretty sure all England would get is gales, and the worst would be in Scotland, but now there is a bit more uncertainty.
These are the hurricane tracks that similar storms take and you can see that they do not reach the UK hardly ever - these are storms with a similar track to Katia since 1851.
It should degrade, but I think it is worth watching, just in case. Just be prepared.
It can happen - remember Hurricane Charley?
I do not know when my next update will be due to my travels, if I have time for one on Saturday then I will, if not then you may have to wait until I get back from Ibiza as I do not believe that they have the internet there. The hippies banned it, so I am told.
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