Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 28th November 2011

The first cold spell of the winter is just a week away.  Ooh how exciting!

But there is wind and rain to get through first - the weekend storms gave an impressive wind gust of 114mph in some Scottish island.  It won't be like that in Reading but there will be something noticeable.

Tonight will see increasing wind, increasing cloud but also increasing temperatures up to 12'C - milder than the day.  And some patchy light rain at times.
Tuesday will be windy with gales and a band of heavy rain in the afternoon and into the evening.  Mild though at 13'C, chilly overnight at around 4'C.
Wednesday will be fairly cloudy with some light showery rain possible, more rain likely overnight which could be heavy, 11'C by day, 9'C by night.  Remaining quite windy.
Thursday is a tricky one, there will be heavy rain to the south but probably not quite reaching as far north as Reading, but assuming we miss the rain then showers are still likely.  A mild 13'C by day but a chilly 1'C overnight once the cloud and showers clear.
Friday will be sunny with a brief ridge of high pressure but only 7'C.  Cloud and rain overnight and windy, gales possible later, maybe up to 9'C in the rain and wind though.
Saturday will start quite mild but with rain - once this clears it will brighten up with the odd light shower possible but remain windy and it could be quite chilly in the wind which is originating in the Arctic though the cold air is way far away at this stage.  11'C by say, 5'C by night.
Sunday will be quite cloudy at times and there will possibly be a couple of bands of showers coming down from the north-west, or maybe even the north.  7'C at best but cooler in the showers, 1'C overnight but feeling much colder in the wind.  Don't be surprised if there is something a little wintry in any showers but I am talking sleet/hail - don't get too excited snow-lovers.
Monday will be proper cold, compared to what we are used to anyway, possibly no higher than 3'C.  Cold enough for snow - but in reality any snow will be reserved for Scotland and northern coasts of England - for Reading it is unlikely.  Not impossible, but unlikely.  A proper frost overnight - down to anywhere like -5'C.
Tuesday will again be cold.  Anything could happen in the way of weather - most likely it will be dry and sunny.  But it ain't guaranteed.

Later next week I expect more wind and rain.

During the middle part of December I expect it to become dry again but cool with frosts and fog possible too.

And rain for Christmas.

I'll let you know later in the week if the chance of something wintry for early next week has upgraded - these things often do at very short notice...you never know ;-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 24th November 2011

Bored of this dry, mild autumn?

Get ready for more rain, more wind, colder temperatures...eventually.

By they way, this could end up being the warmest autumn on record in the UK, it will certainly be in the top 10.

Tonight sees that storm that I previously mentioned was possible, pass north of Scotland - and it did develop into quite a storm so count yourself lucky (unless you are like me and love extreme weather of course!).  But it is bringing the change, cloudy tonight, but mild at no lower than 11'C.  Some bits of light rain later too.
Friday will see a band of rain clearing first thing, which could have a few heavy bursts, then a ridge of high pressure so plenty of sunshine after that, say 10am onwards.  Rather breezy, 10'C by day and 4'C by night.
Saturday will be quite windy, fairly cloudy with some brighter spells, maybe a passing light shower, 12'C by day, 8'C by night.  Chance of some light rain overnight.
Sunday sees another ridge of high pressure so it will be sunny once any morning bits of rain clears away, 12'C by day but a chilly 2'C overnight.
Monday sees the wind pick up again, it will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, 12'C by day and 11'C by night though it should be drier overnight.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, the odd bright spell possible in the morning but a band of heavy rain will cross the country later in the afternoon or into the evening, a good few hours of heavy rain likely.  13'C by day, 5'C by night once the rain clears.

Confidence of exact outcomes from now are reduced, but should be roughly as follows:

Wednesday will likely see outbreaks of rain develop from the south, less mild at 9'C and 7'C overnight.
Thursday looks particularly wet and miserable, quite cold at only 6'C too.  Currently expecting some very heavy rain.

As I said, confidence is low on details.

I am still thinking that there will be some kind of northerly incursion, roughly between 3rd December and 8th December.

But I would be shocked if there was any more than a passing moment of wintryness.

Come the 9th December, it will be back to wind and rain.  And plenty more.

White Christmas?  You are having a laugh.

White New Year?  Quite possible.

White Birthday for James?  Hell yeah.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 21st November 2011

The storm that I previously suggested was approaching the UK, is heading for Scotland, but it will herald a change in the weather pattern for the whole of the UK, including Reading, and eventually bring a chance of a brief cold snap - though still only a chance - something to keep an eye on.

Tonight will be cloudy, misty with a good chance of fog forming later, no lower than 10'C though.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, and probably start foggy too, with a band of showery rain during the middle of the day, 13'C by day but a chilly 3'C overnight as the cloud clears.
Wednesday will see a ridge of high pressure in the south, so dry with sunny spells, 11'C by day, 7'C by night.
Thursday will be cloudy with increasing south-westerly winds, though the storm I previously mentioned will track across Scotland, it will remain dry in England, 12'C by day and night.
Friday will see a band of probably quite heavy rain crossing during the day, more likely in morning or early afternoon, followed by brighter weather and clear skies overnight, 13'C by day, a chilly 1'C overnight, with a chance of fog forming.
Saturday is going to be cool at only 7'C, it may take a while for any fog to clear but then it will become sunny - clouding over later in the day as another deep area of low pressure approaches Scotland, with increasing winds again, temperatures should increase overnight to 9'C with rain overnight at some point.
Sunday will remain windy, with gales possible in blustery showers, once any early rain clears.  Not a pleasant day at all.  9'C by day, 5'C by night but will feel cooler.
Monday is very likely to remain unsettled with showers or longer outbreaks of rain which could be heavy, 10'C by day, 6'C by night, and remaining windy with gales possible again.

Later next week, the jet-stream is likely to move south of the UK, which could allow a blast of cold, wintry air from the Arctic either late next week or into the weekend.  Chances are only 30-40% for England, a bit higher for Scotland.  The set-up of low pressure systems is still too complex for any such guarantees and it will need an expansion of high pressure in the Atlantic.

It is possible, and I will have more certainty come the next forecast.

Even if it does come off, I don't expect it to last long as milder and more unsettled weather will very likely be the main theme for the first half of December.

As I previously said, the highest chance of wintry weather I believe to be in January, this winter.

Incoming Storm Next Thursday?

One worth keeping an eye on.

There is an area of low-pressure which I am following which will likely track across the UK next Thursday, into Friday, and will likely because quite intense.

Lots of rain and lots of wind is quite possible.

Probability is still only 50% but it is looking more certain every day - just the intensity and exact track is fluctuating.

There will of course be more on my next forecast, it is too early to know exactly what it will do and how strong it will be - but finally a little more excitement in the weather!

Updated Weather Forecast - Wednesday 16th November 2011

We are going to have a gradual change in the weather over the next 3-5 days as the influence of the high pressure to the east wanes, allowing something more unsettled to approach from the west, though the likely spell of unsettled weather may not last too long.

I shall go straight into the details as I have food in the oven.

Tonight will remain mainly dry, the odd spot of drizzle is possible but unlikely, 8'C.
Thursday will see a breeze picking up from the south-west, so milder at 12'C, and sunny for most of the day, clouding over later in the evening but again the rain should stay well west of Reading, 9'C overnight.
Friday sees the breeze turn southerly, so even milder at 14'C.  The cloud will gradually clear during the day and it should finish sunny, 7'C overnight.
Saturday sees high pressure building again from the east, it will be mainly sunny and remain clear overnight, 13'C by day, 5'C by night.
Sunday will again be mainly sunny, but cloud will build overnight and some patchy light rain will be possible, 12'C by day and 8'C by night.
Monday will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, I do not expect too much rain but it will likely be on and off all day, 12'C, clearing overnight and a chilly 3'C is possible, and maybe foggy later.
Tuesday will have the potential for a foggy start, and the potential for an area of rain but it is far from certain yet.

The most likely scenario is for there to be some patchy rain at times for the next couple of days, and there is the potential for a heavy band of rain next Thursday/Friday.

Once this clears, if it is as far south as Reading (it may miss), I expect high pressure to build again.

Still no sign of cold.

In fact this autumn will likely go down as one of the warmest in the UK ever.

Remember, I said January would be the most likely month for snow, and December to be surprisingly mild - certainly compared to last year.

Though I don't rule out a brief cold blast at the very beginning of December but I am far from even 50% confident yet.

And finally - a sunset from Martin.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 10th November 2011

My favourite part of the day - weather forecast time.  How exciting!  Except it isn't going to be even vaguely exciting.  High pressure in control still and quite possibly for the rest of the month.

Perhaps more exciting is that I decided to break Martin's photo monopoly with one of my own!

And that is going to be very representative of the weather for some time, though it will become cooler.

I shall put some details on it anyway.

Tonight - low pressure still to the west, high pressure to the east, dry and fairly clear, 8'C.
Friday should start sunny but will cloud over in the afternoon with some patchy rain in the evening, 14'C by day, 9'C by night.
Saturday, sunny first thing but clouding over, staying dry though, 15'C in mild southerly winds, 10'C by night.
Sunday has more potential for sunshine but still plenty of cloud around, 15'C by day and 7'C by night.
Monday will be very similar, perhaps more sunshine but still cloud around, 13'C by day and a chilly 5'C by night with only a light breeze now.
Tuesday sees high pressure building to our west now as well as to our east so it will be mainly sunny, still dry, 11'C by day and a rather cool 2'C overnight - don't be surprised if it is a bit lower and hence a frost.
Wednesday has yet more sunshine, a little more cloud potential than the day before, cooler at 9'C with a frost overnight at -1'C.
Thursday sees more sunshine, a little cloud, 8'C by day and -2'C by night, perhaps lower.

Next weekend has a reasonable chance of some rain, but after that there will be plenty more sunshine, but long gone are our double-figure temperature, and frosty nights will become ever more common.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 7th November 2011

My weather forecasts seem to be getting more sporadic.  That might be my lack of regular employment?!

The general story for this week is high pressure to the east, low pressure to the west, which will continue our mild winds at times.  The main question for this week is will low pressure win out or will it stay dry all week?  I shall attempt to answer.

Increasingly the jet-stream is going to split to go well to the north, and well to the south of the UK, meaning it will get increasingly dry but cooling down, though not until next week.  How much it will cool down is very uncertain.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd light spot of rain is possible but mostly dry, 8'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and dull with some bits of light rain or drizzle at times, 12'C at best, 8'C overnight with more patchy drizzle possible at times.
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some bits of light rain possible in the morning but not for definite.  There is the chance of some bits of sunshine in the afternoon, and a mild 14'C.  9'C overnight.
Thursday sees high pressure more influential, and therefore much more in the way of sunshine though still plenty of cloud about.  There is a 20% chance of some heavy rain in the morning but it should stay well to the west of Reading. A pleasant 15'C, 8'C overnight.
Friday should be fairly sunny in the morning but clouding over later, dry, 14'C, 9'C overnight.
Saturday again should remain pretty sunny, there will be rain to the west but it should remain well to the west - it may however encroach, but the chance is currently low.  15'C in the sunshine, a chilly 6'C overnight.
Sunday will likely again remain mostly sunny, dry, but a little cooler at around 11'C and chilly overnight at 3'C maybe lower.
Monday again sunny and dry but with a more south-easterly wind likely it may only be 8'C, and a frost overnight is likely at 0'C or slightly less.

If only we had set-ups like this during the summer, it would have been hot, hot, hot!  I still think we are only a year or two away from several hot, sunny, dry summers in a row.

From there I expect it to remain dry but get increasingly colder, but nothing too cold - yet.  Temperatures should remain around 4'C to 6'C during the day, and 0'C on average overnight, sometimes slightly less cold, but quite a few frosts too down to -3'C.

That should take up to around 25th November, give or take.

On the last forecast I mentioned a 20% chance of a little snow in England in around 8-10 days time, the chance is now reduced to 10% in my opinion and not for 12-13 days, so in two weekend's time.

One final thing to note is projections of some severe cold building over Greenland.  This happened late last November, and a significant shift south in the jet-stream brought us that freezing December.  Just saying...I still think December will often be mild. For a repeat of 2010, it will need that unusual jet-stream pattern.

Thursday 3rd November 2011

Rain, rain and lots of rain.

That is all I have to say.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 1st November 2011

Do not panic, your local weather forecaster is here once more.

I might just have a surprise for you later in the forecast too?

Tonight, fine, 8'C.
Wednesday sees a big area of low pressure approaching from the west, the same one that brought the record early snowfall to New York area.  No snow for us, far from it with the continued mild southerly winds.  It should start fine but clouding over with outbreaks of rain in the evening and overnight, 15'C by day and a mild 13'C overnight.
Thursday remains with the mild southerly wind, cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, especially likely in the evening and overnight, when it is likely to be heavy.  A very mild 17'C despite the cloud and 11'C overnight.
Friday will see it brightening up and less in the way of rain but some showers cannot be ruled out.  15'C by day, 9'C overnight.
Saturday sees low pressure over northern France, pushing rain over the south of England sporadically, it could stay dry though it is more likely to rain at times, I will confirm later in the week. 14'C by day, 10'C by night.
Sunday a repeat performance, outbreaks of rain at times over the south of England, high pressure building to the north, 11'C.

Next week remains uncertain at the moment, but something I am increasingly certain of is high pressure building from the east from around 12th November.

Depending on the exact location, this will most likely mean the first significant frosts of the season.

However, and I remain very cautious for now, there is a 20% chance in my view, of it being positioned just right to allow a significant area of cold, wintry weather, ie snow, to push across from the east.  Around 15th-17th, give or take.

I repeat that it is a 20% chance at best...but worth mentioning!  Needless to say I will be keeping a very close eye - it is my belief that the wintry weather will come from the east this winter, as opposed to the north last winter.