My weather forecasts seem to be getting more sporadic. That might be my lack of regular employment?!
The general story for this week is high pressure to the east, low pressure to the west, which will continue our mild winds at times. The main question for this week is will low pressure win out or will it stay dry all week? I shall attempt to answer.
Increasingly the jet-stream is going to split to go well to the north, and well to the south of the UK, meaning it will get increasingly dry but cooling down, though not until next week. How much it will cool down is very uncertain.
Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd light spot of rain is possible but mostly dry, 8'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and dull with some bits of light rain or drizzle at times, 12'C at best, 8'C overnight with more patchy drizzle possible at times.
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some bits of light rain possible in the morning but not for definite. There is the chance of some bits of sunshine in the afternoon, and a mild 14'C. 9'C overnight.
Thursday sees high pressure more influential, and therefore much more in the way of sunshine though still plenty of cloud about. There is a 20% chance of some heavy rain in the morning but it should stay well to the west of Reading. A pleasant 15'C, 8'C overnight.
Friday should be fairly sunny in the morning but clouding over later, dry, 14'C, 9'C overnight.
Saturday again should remain pretty sunny, there will be rain to the west but it should remain well to the west - it may however encroach, but the chance is currently low. 15'C in the sunshine, a chilly 6'C overnight.
Sunday will likely again remain mostly sunny, dry, but a little cooler at around 11'C and chilly overnight at 3'C maybe lower.
Monday again sunny and dry but with a more south-easterly wind likely it may only be 8'C, and a frost overnight is likely at 0'C or slightly less.
If only we had set-ups like this during the summer, it would have been hot, hot, hot! I still think we are only a year or two away from several hot, sunny, dry summers in a row.
From there I expect it to remain dry but get increasingly colder, but nothing too cold - yet. Temperatures should remain around 4'C to 6'C during the day, and 0'C on average overnight, sometimes slightly less cold, but quite a few frosts too down to -3'C.
That should take up to around 25th November, give or take.
On the last forecast I mentioned a 20% chance of a little snow in England in around 8-10 days time, the chance is now reduced to 10% in my opinion and not for 12-13 days, so in two weekend's time.
One final thing to note is projections of some severe cold building over Greenland. This happened late last November, and a significant shift south in the jet-stream brought us that freezing December. Just saying...I still think December will often be mild. For a repeat of 2010, it will need that unusual jet-stream pattern.
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