Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 29th December 2011

The mild winter is set to continue.  Which I don't mind in some ways as it saves me money on heating bills, however it causing me concern for my expectation of cold, snowy weather from mid-January onwards - I don't see how this forecast can come true.  But I ain't changing it yet.

I had to steal this picture from the BBC's website, of these most wonderful Lenticular clouds - not a formation I have ever seen myself.  I met Paul Hudson when I was a teenager (who wrote wrote the page) so I reckon he won't mind me doing so especially if I point you to his web page, he is a rare specimen - a BBC forecaster that I respect...though not for the whole climate change bullshit.

There are some more photos here, and number 6 in the slide show is even better than this one.

I cannot believe I am promoting people to look at a weather related subject on the BBC...whatever next?

Some weather.

Tonight will see any showers clear away, the chilly breeze will continue but temperatures should fall no lower than 4'C.
Friday may start bright but wind and rain is on the way for the afternoon and into the evening - several hours of rain, with showers following overnight.  6'C by day, but a mild 11'C overnight.
New Year's Eve will remain windy, and cloudy, with some light showers.  More rain overnight but it should stay away until after midnight.  Up to 14'C by day, 11'C by night - very mild.
New Year's Day will also be windy, mostly cloudy, some light showers quite likely.  11'C by day, down to 2'C overnight.
Monday will again be windy, but reasonably sunny, cooler at 6'C by day.  Quite a deep area of low pressure is heading for Scotland in the evening, and even here in sunny Reading there will likely be gales, and some bits of rain overnight.
Tuesday will see rain in the morning, still windy, brighter in the afternoon with some sunshine, 10'C by day, 3'C by night.
Wednesday still breezy but dry in a ridge of high pressure, a fair amount of cloud, 7'C by day, 5'C by night.

There after, it looks like the jetstream might judge go north of the UK, allowing a period of more settled weather, and decreasing further the chance of any snow.

Enjoy your new year's celebrations and I look forward to more inspiring weather forecasts in 2012.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 27th December 2011

It being Christmas, it is unlikely many will read so I will keep the forecast brief.

Tonight will remain mild, no lower than 8'C.
Wednesday will see early bits and pieces of rain clearing during the morning, with brighter skies following, 9'C by day, 3'C by night.
Thursday will be fairly cloudy, some light showers possibly in a cooler breeze, 7'C by day, 3'C by night.
Friday will be bright to start but clouding over later with rain during the evening and overnight, which could be quite heavy at times, 6'C by day, but warming to 10'C in the rain overnight.
New Year's Eve will be cloudy, with bits of showery rain at times, breezy and mild, at around 13'C, and that is the same for the night too.
New Year's Day may start bright but wind and rain will arrive during the day, and this low pressure could be quite a feature, it may develop into something reasonably notable.

And yes, more wind and rain to follow, there is no end in sight.

The cold part of winter will keep us waiting longer.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 23rd December 2011

Apologies that I didn't do my updated weather forecast yesterday as usual, I was still researching when my pint of gravy was ready and I feel asleep straight after.

The reason for so much research was trying to find signs of high pressure building either to the north of the UK or over Scandinavia, which is what the second half of my winter forecast depends on, and is still eluding me.

Not to worry though.  There is increasing signs of high pressure over the UK at times, and I still expect this to transpose itself over Scandinavia at some point, splitting the jet stream to the north and south of the UK (it still looks too strong at the moment), or just to the south of the UK, bringing a fetch of cold air from Europe with snow from time to time.

I never expected this to happen in December, and due to La Nina, albeit a weak affair, I do not now expect it until the middle of January, maybe not even until after my birthday on 22nd January.  It never snows on my birthday.

So until then, more mildness at times, with the odd brief cold interval - and I did say December would be unusually mild, though it has been only slightly milder than average so far.

Friday will see heavy rain this afternoon, clearing during the evening with a slight frost possible by dawn, 11'C during the day, 1'C overnight in clear skies.
Christmas Eve will start bright but there will be patchy cloud in the afternoon, with the odd spot of light rain in the breeze later possible, 6'C both day and night.
Christmas Day will be mostly cloudy, some bits of brightness, mild at 10'C by day, 6'C overnight.
Boxing Day will be somewhat sunnier, and still mild around 10'C, down to 4'C overnight.
Tuesday should again be fairly sunny, though with low pressure to the north, do not be surprised if it is cloudy instead, but it will remain dry, 10'C by day and 4'C by night.
Wednesday looks a damp, cloudy affair, 10'C by day, down to 0'C overnight in cooler air.
Thursday will be sunny, but chilly at 5'C, with a frost overnight, down to -1'C.

Then we return back to milder but more unsettled weather and currently it does look like heavy rain for New Year's Eve night - too far away to give a definite, but I will be surprised if there is not rain at some point New Year Eve or Day.

Merry Christmas.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 19th December 2011

Mild mild mild mild mild.

I did say December would be mild (ok I know it has been a bit cold this weekend just gone but overall it looks mild).  And I did say no white Christmas.

Though I did say January would be particularly wintry - no sign that I am likely to be right yet - it looks mild or very mild until well into January right now.

One thing that did tickle me about the UK weather last week was the shower of apples, near Coventry.

Anyway, to normal weather:

Tonight will be dry and mostly cloudy, 3'C.
Tuesday will start bright but clouding over in the afternoon with rain later in the evening and overnight, 7'C by day, possibly up to 10'C overnight.
Wednesday will see high pressure building from the south, with sunny spells and mild temperatures up to 13'C - it really will be rather pleasant.  No lower than 7'C overnight.
Thursday again sees sunny spells and 12'C.  Cloudy overnight with rain eventually arriving towards dawn, 11'C.
Friday will see any early rain clearing away during the morning, followed by plenty of sunshine as high pressure builds again.  11'C in the rain but cooler at around 8'C once the sun comes out (yes I know, slightly bizarre logic but it is winter), and chilly overnight with a frost possible, around 1'C.
Christmas Eve will be mostly sunny, 8'C - no lower than 4'C overnight.
Christmas Day will be mostly sunny once again, 10'C quite possible, around 4'C overnight.
Boxing Day will cloud over with some patchy rain, 10'C.

New Years Eve currently looks to be relatively mild but a good chance of rain at some point - it will be a week before I can add any clarity to this though.

And that is your forecast.  Goodbye.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 15th December 2011

Sadly only 4 people read my last forecast so you might not know that there is snow on the way for tomorrow morning - however one of those 4 told me how much she likes reading my forecasts - and my day was made and hence I am back on forecasting.  This time I might actually put the link up on Facebook correctly.

I did say that there was a 70% chance of snow - I now say a 90% chance of snow but still only a 70% chance of it actually settling - the ground is very wet and the snow will be fairly wet in nature - it will need to be heavy and consistent and also cold enough to settle.  Equally, there could be 4-5cm here in Reading.  And if you travel anywhere vaguely hilly in the area, there will be snow on the ground.  Reading might just be a touch not cold enough.

Tonight, outbreaks of rain, eventually down to a chilly 1'C.
Friday, around 6am it will start to turn to snow, as above it should settle a bit.  No guarantee.  1'C at best in a distinctly cold northerly wind, -2'C overnight.  A 30% potential for a snow shower in the early evening too.
Saturday will be proper cold but quite sunny, perhaps 2'C at best.  Again, a small, say 20% chance of a snow shower in the evening or maybe even a light dusting overnight, but Reading is not best suited for snow from a northerly blast so don't expect it...just maybe.  Down to -4'C overnight with a sharp frost.
Sunday, again a small chance of a little early snow, 20%, still cold at 2'C but the wind will turn to the west so not feeling as cold, -1'C overnight.
Monday will slowly turn less cold, maybe up to 6'C, with a band of rain for the afternoon.
Tuesday sees high pressure building but it will be a cloudy affair, slowly getting milder, 8'C by day and a lovely 10'C for the night - but with some outbreaks of rain likely later in the evening and overnight (I say likely as Reading might be a shade too far south for this particular area of rain).
Wednesday will be fairly cloudy but there should be some bright sunny spells from time to time, and a positively tropical, 12'C - 8'C overnight.
Thursday quite sunny but cloud building later with rain overnight, 11'C.

I did say categorically no snow for Christmas Day but there is maybe another northerly blast shaping up for around 26th/27th - it wouldn't take a miracle for my Christmas Day forecast to be wrong.  But for now - Christmas will be dry with average temperatures, maybe a frost.  Which yes is different to what I said on Monday (cloudy, mild with some rain) but hardly anyone saw that so I will get away with it ;-)

Updated Weather Forecast - 12th December 2011

I do love a good exciting forecast!

Not quite as exciting as what Scotland had last week, with a maximum wind gust of 165mph in the mountains which is quite crazy.  Down at normal levels, gusts of 80-90mph were widespread.

My favourite picture is definitely one of this wind turbine - please send it to everyone you know who works for Greenpeace/Friends Of The Earth.

I stole it from this guy's Flickr photos, some excellent images on there, worth a gander.

Apologies, Martin, this is a few better photo than your beautiful sunset photo...I hope you appreciate :-)  Next time...

Anyway, in case you hadn't guessed, the weather in Reading this week (and most of northern Europe) is going to be minging - lots of rain, lots of very strong winds (or breeze's as they call them in Scotland), and maybe, just maybe, something wintry.

Tonight will rain pretty much all night from 6pm until well into the early hours, heavy rain too, very heavy at times.  Milder than today though at up to 11'C but very windy, gales likely, peaking around 9pm.  Stay in and read my blogs.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, some showery bits of rain are likely, 7'C by day, 1'C by night, and remaining windy.
Wednesday again fairly cloudy, a little brightness at times, with a 70% chance of a couple of showers though they will be hit and miss, they may even have a touch of sleet in them, no higher than 5'C and down to 0'C overnight, with a more organised area of rain around midnight.
Thursday is when the storm I was expecting for the end of the week is now going to arrive, it's track keeps changing, one minute it is going to Scotland, the next northern England, then the English Channel, and on it keeps changing - now it is forecast to send the worst of the winds to France...ha ha stick that in your Euro, Mr Sarkozy.  Anyway, so although this means that we will avoid the worst of the severe gales, it will start bright but cloud over into the afternoon with heavy, perhaps torrential rain for several hours.  4'C but temporarily getting to 8'C overnight before falling to 0'C quickly as the wind sets around to the north...which will mean...
Friday may see an area of snow for the morning.  Confidence is low to moderate, it depends exactly on what Thursday's storm does and the track keeps changing.  But this is currently the most likely option, 40% likely.  It will definitely be a cold day, in a strong northerly wind, no higher than 3'C and 0'C overnight with a frost.

Saturday and Sunday will be cold with a northerly wind, mostly sunny but a 20% chance of a snow shower on either day.  No better than 3'C by day and down to -3'C overnight which will be a very penetrating frost.  Similar story on Monday.

It should become milder during Tuesday and this will last towards Christmas, maybe even reaching 13'C before Christmas - almost t-shirt weather!

And for Christmas Day itself?  A day I have long being saying there is a 0% chance of a White Christmas?

My current expectation is for a cloudy but mild day, breezy, 12'C with some drizzle or light rain.  Absolutely zero chance of snow.

******

Given the uncertainty with regards to the track of Thursday's storm which keeps changing every few hours, I will update on Wednesday evening if it looks to have changed, because this could easily upgrade back into a damaging storm once again and track across the south of England.

Enjoy the more exciting weather!

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 8th December 2011

Sometimes I feel the need to remind you that I am quite good at this forecasting lark - two weeks ago I said the following:


I am still thinking that there will be some kind of northerly incursion, roughly between 3rd December and 8th December.

But I would be shocked if there was any more than a passing moment of wintryness.

Come the 9th December, it will be back to wind and rain.  And plenty more.


Well, we had the northerly incursion, at the beginning of the week and now we are back to wind and rain - and it is rather stormy in Scotland.  Ok it is the 8th as opposed to the 9th but I am pretty chuffed.


I wouldn't be surprised if this time next week there was something fairly stormy for England.  The chances are quite high.


So, more wind and rain for the next week or so before high pressure eventually settles it down for frost and fog in time for Christmas (I am sure the airports will love a bit of fog just before Christmas!).


A quick photo of the A4 in Reading first:

Tonight will see the approaching rain band clear quite quickly, followed by clearer skies and much colder temperatures than today, potentially down to 0'C, in a cold wind.
Friday will see a ridge of high pressure, mostly sunny, some clouds with a 30% chance of a passing light shower, cool at 7'C and cold overnight, down to -2'C with a frost.  Coldest night of the season so far.
Saturday again will be sunny, but cold at only 5'C.  A frost initially overnight at 0'C but increasing cloud will mean that it will likely clear before sunrise.
Sunday will be cloudy with a band of rain during the middle part of the day for a few hours, 7'C by day, 0'C overnight as the cloud clears, so yet another slight frost.
Monday sees the next deep area of low pressure approach Scotland, bringing gales potentially even to Reading, and a band of heavy rain for later in the afternoon and all through the evening, it could in fact be very heavy rain.  7'C by day and night...maybe a little milder overnight.
Tuesday will remain windy with an 80% chance of showers or longer outbreaks of rain, nowhere near as much as Monday though.  8'C by day, 2'C by night.
Wednesday again windy, rain or showers crossing for all areas, 7'C by day, 2'C by night.


Thursday into Friday has the potential for a nasty area of low pressure over the south of England - it is too far away to be certain, I will be able to confirm on Monday.  This is the thing I am very much keeping an eye on.


High pressure building around 20th December.


Have fun.

Australian Rain

Don't believe the Aussie lies - it does rain in Australia.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 5th December 2011

In my last forecast, I suggested something a little wintry may be on it's way.  Sadly for Reading snow lovers, the chances of snow further south of Birmingham are much reduced, almost to zero.  But cold snaps can upgrade at very short notice...

Also of note, it was the second warmest Autumn on record in England.  Though you may have guessed that already.

Tonight will remain dry, possibly down to 0'C so there could be a slight frost, certainly more likely away from the town centre.

Tuesday should start sunny, but cloud will increase with some patchy outbreaks of mostly light rain in the afternoon/evening, and increasing winds overnight.  8'C by day, 5'C by night.

Wednesday will tend to become quite sunny, still breezy and no more than 8'C by day, chilly overnight at around 1'C.

Thursday will be windy, gale-force gusts possible, and two bands of rain, one for around lunch-time or early afternoon, and one swinging down from a more northerly direction during the evening, roughly around 9pm.  Mild day day at 11'C, much cooler overnight, down to 1'C and feeling cold in the wind.

Friday will be quite cold, at around 5'C but a ridge of high pressure will build keeping it dry and sunny.  A small chance of say around 10% of a little area of sleet and snow but it looks likely to stay well to the north and east of Reading if it does actually even develop.  Cold overnight, maybe down to 0'C again.

Saturday will be much milder, around 11'C but cloudy with outbreaks of rain, still fairly mild overnight at 9'C.

Sunday will see high pressure building so more in the way of sunshine, 8'C by day and 0'C overnight.

It does look like the jet-stream will be stronger the week after so more in the way of wind and rain heading our way, and little in the way of cold.

I was expecting high pressure to build around 15th December but this could well be delayed a bit.

I will be very surprised if there is anything in the way of significant cold or snow before January and maybe not until the middle of January either.  Nothing wrong with cheaper fuel bills :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 1st December 2011

We definitely have an interesting week's weather coming up this week, though not a patch on last year when it was struggling to reach 0'C during the day - we struggle to get anywhere close to that at night at the moment!

But it is definitely going to have a feel of winter during the next week or so, at times.

Snow is not out of the question.

Tonight will see rain clearing and with clear skies later it could end up quite chilly, 1'C.
Friday will be the first cold winter day of the season, probably no higher than 5'C but it will at least be sunny, during the day.  The evening will see increasing winds and a band of rain later in the evening and overnight, but it will be milder, 9'C.
Saturday will start cloudy but should brighten up, it should stay dry although breezy, 11'C by day, 4'C by night.
Sunday looks a mostly cloudy day and there is an interesting little feature developing which could bring a period of heavy rain in the evening and overnight - but it is not yet certain how far north it will go - Reading is on the borderline, just as it was today (Thursday 1st December).  8'C by day - similar overnight if raining, otherwise down to 2'C.
Monday will be a cold but sunny day, with winds from the north-west, it will be sunny and most probably be dry, 5'C by day and 1'C by night but feeling much colder in the wind.  There will likely be some snow further north and towards the coasts, but Reading is way too far inland for it, unless something unexpected happens.  Which it sometimes does, but I really do not think it will.
Tuesday will again be quite windy, it will start cold but gradually become less so, around 8'C and there will be outbreaks of rain towards the evening.
Wednesday looks set fair, still breezy, some sunshine, 8'C and 4'C overnight.

I am going to give you my forecast for Thursday, but I am only 50% confident of something like this.

Thursday by day will be wet and windy, 9'C.  Colder air will quickly dig in behind and there may be a band of snow to follow as temperatures plunge quickly to -2'C.

It won't last.  I am still expecting more wind and rain, with more generally mild weather, to be followed by high pressure and some frosty nights as we approach Christmas.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some very pleasant days with temperatures up to 14'C a week before Christmas.  I did also suggest that January would be more wintry and I stick to that.  And maybe February too.

Another warmer than average spring though once it gets going.

Earthquake Video

If you want to know what it is like to experience an earthquake without having to move from your desk (assuming you are not living in an earthquake zone), then this little video is for you.

Shows how quickly everything can change in an earthquake.