Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 9th January 2012

I have been banging on for ages about the worst of this winter being in January, and for the last month or so how I thought that the weather would change around the middle of January - and finally the weather models are showing weather eye candy.  Free days off from work kind of eye candy.

But don't get too excited yet.

I am only 50% confident - though last Thursday I was only 30% confident.

After months of almost non-stop westerly or south-westerly winds, for it to suddenly change to easterly would be quite some atmospheric doing, we either need the jetstream to go south of the UK, or to split and go north and south.  It looks like doing one of them.

Even if an easterly wind becomes 100% guaranteed - there is no guarantee of snow.  Many times before the last few wintry winters we had dry easterlies with just a few snow grains to get excited about, albeit with freezing cold temperatures.  However, the biggest historic snowfalls have come from easterlies.

For now, we have our last mild week, a dry week too for a change, and something almost springlike in the sunshine:

Tonight sees high pressure in charge, no lower than 8'C.
Tuesday will see periods of cloud, and periods of sunshine, 11'C by day, down to 5'C overnight in clear skies.
Wednesday will again see some sunny periods, but also cloud at times, 10'C by day, 6'C overnight.
Thursday a touch milder at up to 12'C, there will be sunshine at times, but also cloud, down to 4'C overnight.
Friday will see high pressure getting squeezed from both the west and the east by low pressure systems, but still dry with some sunny periods, 9'C by day, maybe down to 0'C overnight with a possible frost.

My confidence is not so high from now:

Saturday looks like a band of rain will approach from the west but it may not reach Reading, most likely it will start sunny and cold but cloud over.  7'C.
Sunday currently looks like this band of rain should finally reach Reading but will probably get no further before moving south, allowing colder air to start filtering in from the east, 4'C by day, -3'C by night.  However, as this cold air starts to move in, the rain could turn to snow.  20% chance currently.

If current projections come true then for next Monday onwards, cold and getting colder, anywhere down to 0'C by day and -8'C by night.

Even if they don't and the mild westerlies win back for a few more days, I fully believe that winter will make another attempt in time for the weekend after.

Remember folks, this is current projections, it will take a lot of atmospheric changes for the cold and snow to come off.

Next forecast is Thursday - I will update my weather page on Facebook before then with regards to the likelihood of cold and snow, most likely every day.