The story has not changed from the last few forecasts.
The weather models continue to tease - offering cold and snow but not quite yet in a reliable time-frame, but every time I do a forecast it does seem to be promised just that one day closer.
But this isn't the whole story.
In my previous forecast, the models were saying that it wasn't going to happen (though I didn't change my forecast of expecting cold and snow). Then over the weekend the models almost all pointed to snow - disruptive snow for a couple of weeks. Then this morning, they took almost all suggestion away, back to mild and wet.
And tonight - the snow is back on with a vengeance. Eventually. Perhaps.
If I have learnt one thing from about 8 years of model-watching, it is that not to count on any weather offerings by the models more than 5 days away unless they are from the west, north-west or south-west - which is where the majority of our weather comes from. And snow hardly ever comes from that direction.
The Met Office have suggested snow tomorrow for up north - it will not happen in Reading. I doubt that it will even happen up north except over the highest of hills, I do not know where they have got that one from.
Tonight sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK, clearing skies with a slight frost by dawn, 0'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and mild with rain during the day, heavy at times, 11'C by day and 8'C by night. the worst of the rain will clear around mid-afternoon with some light patchy bits following.
Wednesday will be windy, cloudy with light patchy rain at times, more general rain overnight. A mild 11'C by day, down to 5'C when the rain clears overnight.
Thursday will be cooler and breezy, 50% chance of a shower or two, but sunny spells too, 7'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Friday sees high pressure building, mostly dry with a 20% chance of a light shower. Sunny. 7'C by day and down to 0'C overnight with a slight frost.
Saturday and Sunday will most likely be a mixture of sunshine and cloud with some showers.
Sunday or Monday may see the cold weather start to dig in. If the cold weather arrives, don't expect it to get above -3'C even during the day.
And from then on? A month of cold and snow. Maybe.
I am sorry that I cannot be 100% confident. I really wish I could. I have always believed that a mild winter would turn to snow during January and still remain confident in my belief but the weather models, which I do have to take notice of instead of "my gut feelings" say 50/50.
So my forecast remains 50/50 that the cold weather will dig in during the weekend and into next week.
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