Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 12th January 2012

Those of you that clicked like on the Facebook box will have seen this week just how up and down the models are as I posted regular updates - and what I have to cope with to try to come up with a sane sounding weather forecast - because if I wrote up the model output every day you would be as confused as hell, especially when the weather is going through a process of change like it is now.

We are still going to have a cold snap, but just cold temperatures and frost - no chance of snow.  Lots of wintry sunshine though.  But next weekend...oh I shouldn't tell you, it might not come true.

But if you really want to see snow, then how about these pictures of snow in Alaska - 1963 was the last time we had that kind of amount in England, so I believe!

I'll show you a picture of the sunset in Reading tonight.  I am not blessed with photography skills but I managed somehow in my blurry ways to get lots of pretty lights in it:

Tonight there is still a bit of cloud around.  We are under an area of high pressure, no wind, and dropping temperatures - it shouldn't go lower than 1'C.
Friday will be sunny, a bit of cloud but dry, chilly at 6'C and a frost overnight, down to -2'C.  A 20% chance of fog developing.
Saturday will be a crisp, sunny, wintry day, 5'C by day, -2'C by night.
Sunday may see a bit more cloud, still a chilly 5'C by day and down to -3'C by night.
Monday sees little change, sunnier than the day before, 5'C by day, down to -4'C at night.
Tuesday looks a touch milder after a cold start at 6'C, cloud should develop which will keep the frost away at night, 1'C (I am not 100% confident on no frost yet, it is quite 50/50).

I have to admit that I am not sure about Wednesday or Thursday - they could be dry and cold, but could be milder with wind and rain.  50/50.  I'll know by Monday's forecast.

OK, seeing as it is my birthday weekend next weekend, I shall tell you what is forecast.

Low pressure coming down from the north on Friday, dragging easterly winds from the continent (which is having the very cold spell that I mentioned on previous forecasts which isn't getting here as I thought it might), the low pressure to stick around all weekend and Friday's outbreaks of rain, turning to snow either on Saturday or Sunday.

But it never snows on my birthday.

I will kind of believe it when I see it, but if it is forecast the same when I do my Monday forecast then you can get your sledges out (though I would wait until my Thursday forecast to dust them off).

As it stands it is 50% likely to snow next weekend.  But not before.

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