Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 29th September 2011

The cold is coming, I hope you can remember where your winter coat and gloves are...I am about to dust off my collection of 15 scarves.

Today's photo is from Martin S again.

But for now enjoy the sunshine and possibly record-breaking temperatures - Saturday might be the hottest October day ever in the UK.  It would need to be higher than 29.4'C.  Unconfirmed reports that the highest ever 29th September temperature was recorded today at 29'C - the previous date record was 27.8'C.

Reading is probably just a little too far west but we reached 26.7'C today and I wouldn't be surprised to see 28'C on Friday or Saturday.

Friday sees high pressure to our east continue to pump hot air and beautiful clear skies, 27'C quite likely.  Hotter than Ibiza?
Saturday continues hot and sunny, with just a little cloud developing possibly but nothing ruinous, 27'C again should be reached.
Sunday sees the hot and sunny weather just cling on, 26'C, a little high cloud possible.
Monday sees the hot air displaced and a westerly wind develop, it should start sunny but cloud will build, 22'C so still warm.  But not for long.
Tuesday will be much fresher, still fairly bright but at 15'C you won't want to be sitting in it!
Wednesday is fairly likely to see an area of rain develop during the day, followed by a north-westerly or perhaps even a northerly wind later in the day, 13'C.
Thursday is likely to have a northerly wind coming all the way from the Arctic, but with high pressure to the west it should remain sunny, small chance of a shower.  But at something like 11'C, I don't care if it is sunny!  Cold overnight too with a chance of a frost, around 2'C - the coldest so far.

From then on, high pressure should situate over the UK, which means a slight recovery in temperatures, maybe to 16'C but increasing chances of frost overnight and/or fog to start.

High pressure likely to remain dominant until the middle of the month, perhaps longer and whilst it does, it wouldn't take a huge shift for it to pump warm air back from the south once more...but it ain't going to happen until after next weekend.

Enjoy the rest of the lovely hot sunny weather and if you are a hot girl, get your legs out please :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 26th September 2011

Oh I do like to be beside the seaside.

It seems my promise of bringing the Ibiza warmth back has worked out, I hope you appreciate it.  I did think it was a bit selfish of me to go to Ibiza and enjoy the heatwave and leave everyone in the cold and wet weather.

The questions are - how hot will it get, and how long will it last?

No photos today, I am too disorganised, sorry.

So, as per my previous forecast, Tuesday will see high pressure over Germany, giving us a warm south-easterly flow, temperatures up to 24'C, perhaps some early morning mist to clear first.  Lots of sunshine.
Wednesday sees that flow of air become a bit more southerly, 25'C should be reached in glorious autumnal sunshine.
Thursday just that little bit better, maybe up to 27'C, lots and lots of sunshine.  (If this were July, we would be looking at 37'C).
Friday and the patterns stays the same, hot and gloriously sunny, 27'C.
Saturday, the heat should just about hold on, perhaps with a little more cloud, 26'C.
Sunday probably still sunny but warm rather than hot, 23'C.

The most likely outcome is that the high pressure will then drift west towards Ireland, and the temperatures will fall back the following week, so somewhere between Wednesday and Sunday on that week, a northerly flow will likely develop, from the Arctic, bringing frost and an early wintry feel which will be quite a shock to the system, daytime temperatures as low as 10'C possibly - no snow down south but it will feel raw.

So get the scarves ready.

I doubt it will last long as I would then expect the Atlantic to roar back into action with wind and rain, and milder weather for a time.

Until perhaps a cold snowy November?


With regards to winter, I am starting to favour a surprisingly relatively mild December, but followed by a very snowy and very cold January and February.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 22nd September 2011

I did promise to bring back the Ibiza sunshine.  I think someone may have listened.

I cannot actually believe the weather forecast that I am making right now, it is looking ridiculously good for next week.  Stupidly good.  I am so excited to tell you about it.

Friday will see the high pressure building to our south-east, it should be reasonably sunny, though more cloud likely later, 19'C is possible after a slightly chilly start of around 6'C.
Saturday should warm up quite nicely to around 20'C but there is a band of rain coming from the west but it is weakening quickly, it will likely make it cloudy later in the day with some spots of rain in the evening and overnight which is not a bad thing as it will keep night-time temperatures at a mild 14'C.
Sunday will see the cloud and bits of rain clearing to be replaced by some sunshine, but there is also a small area of low pressure developing which will head across Scotland overnight, which may increase the amount of cloud in Reading.  18'C will be reached, but if there is a good amount of sunshine then 21'C is possible.
Monday, that low pressure will move out of the way and the high pressure will assert itself a little bit more, temperatures will depend on cloud levels, it could be a disappointing 15'C but also a pleasant 19'C.
Tuesday, say hello again to summer, as the high pressure will be to our east, and we start to pump up the air from the south, all the way from Ibiza!  24'C very likely, a little less if stuck under some cloud still.  And still mild overnight.
Wednesday sees even warmer air being pumped up so 26'C is likely in lovely sunny skies.  And again, very mild overnight.
Thursday could be ever hotter, I wouldn't rule out 28'C somewhere.  Beautiful sunshine.

And next weekend I expect to be something also quite similar, very warm, or hot, mostly sunny.

I still expect the first part of October to be warmer than average and dry, but as it goes on, increasing chance of fog and frost as it cools down, and then followed by some autumn storms and some early wintry weather during November.

This really will be summer's last stand.  I did say it would be a pretty good summer.  Granted June, July and August were mostly disappointing but I don't think we can complain compared to previous summers.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 20th September 2011

You may have noticed that I have been to Ibiza and I tried my hardest to bring the weather back with me.  They are having an exceptionally hot September - and I think we may catch some of it.

I have this rather lovely looking photo of what I believe is a sunset from my good friend Martin - the clouds say sunset to me anyway.

I do recall suggesting that September might end up being warmer than August...

Tuesday will be cloudy and humid, quite warm too up to 19'C, there is a band of rain very slowly approaching which should arrive in Reading later in the evening and overnight, and it could be heavy at times.
Wednesday, fresher and breezy, some sunshine too, 17'C, chance of a light shower.
Thursday will see the high pressure to the south try to push up a bit, but there will be plenty of cloud, with some sunny breaks it could reach 18'C, quite pleasant.
Friday should be a bit sunnier, there will still be cloud around but 20'C is possible in sunshine.
Saturday may start bright and quite warm, up to 20'C again, but a band of rain will cross later in the day, perhaps not until the evening though.
Sunday sees high pressure settling to our south-east, so it will be dry with some sunshine and possibly 21'C.
Monday will have a very warm southerly wind, and if the cloud clears it could reach 22'C.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar but maybe even warmer, 24'C - possibly even 25'C.

And it should continue in this kind of theme until and during the weekend.

And then a warm, dry start to October perhaps?  Before the autumn storms kick back in...

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 12th September 2011 Maybe?

Hot, sunny and 33'C in Ibiza.

I have no idea of the weather in England but I think it will rain.  Sorry but I am too busy partying.

Maybe I will bring the sunshine back for a day or two.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 9th September 2011

Hello Katia.

Ex-hurricane Katia is on its way to the UK.

Normally, any hurricanes or tropical storms which go up the eastern side of the US and end up in the Atlantic, either tend to merge into mushy Atlantic storm systems or go up to Iceland.

However the jetstream is focused straight from Canada to the UK, as it has often been this last few months, and is set to take Katia with her, as her own storm system.

Again, hurricanes need very warm waters to fuel themselves, which the Atlantic does not have, so it should decline on its own accord, and be at worst an autumn storm.

But you may have noticed a warming of the air since Hurricane Irene, and also there is currently a depression in the Atlantic spiralling hot air up through Spain and France, some of which will reach the UK - although we ain't going to get much sunshine.  Well, I am, as I am going to Ibiza.

Friday sees this warmth pushed up to the UK, and in any sunny breaks it could reach a pleasant 24'C.
Saturday looks like there will be a weak band of rain pushing across, and in the sunshine before or after, depending on the timing of the rain, it should reach 22'C as the rain won't last that long, but it will spoil some of the day.
Sunday, is a little tricky to forecast partly because of Katia, but I expect an area of heavy rain over much of southern England for much of the best part of the day, 17'C at best.

Sunday night and into Monday is where it will get interesting.  At best, expect gales with a band of rain, and showers following.  Somewhere in the UK will get Katia's severe gales or possibly storm-force winds.  Most likely the Scotland area or the north or England - but it could go south.  It could.  Maybe.  25% chance.  I know that doesn't especially help.

Following that, expect a lot of wind and rain and come Wednesday, a northerly plunge of air which may take it down to 15'C.

High pressure may build towards the weekend - but what course will the next hurricane take?!  I think she is called Maria.

If, and it is a big if, Katia is going to be a cause for concern to anyone living in England, you won't get much notice, as the track is unpredictable, and until maybe yesterday I was pretty sure all England would get is gales, and the worst would be in Scotland, but now there is a bit more uncertainty.

These are the hurricane tracks that similar storms take and you can see that they do not reach the UK hardly ever - these are storms with a similar track to Katia since 1851.

It should degrade, but I think it is worth watching, just in case.  Just be prepared.

It can happen - remember Hurricane Charley?

I do not know when my next update will be due to my travels, if I have time for one on Saturday then I will, if not then you may have to wait until I get back from Ibiza as I do not believe that they have the internet there.  The hippies banned it, so I am told.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 5th September 2011

I think you can tell it is autumn, but autumn does have more than one weather style.

Those milky skies - yes that is the sign of the first real autumn storm approaching.

Tonight you will notice the increasing wind, but it will remain mild, 14'C.
Tuesday the rain will arrive in the early hours of the morning and will not leave until very late in the day, it will be heavy at times, equally there will be lighter patches, and it will be windy, possibly gale force in the morning.  18'C.  Not that temperature will be important.
Wednesday will be breezy with a westerly wind and plenty of showers, they won't too long, there will be the odd bit of sunshine but distinctly autumnal, 16'C.
Thursday will be noticeably warmer at around 20'C but no sunshine, instead more wind and cloudy skies, with some rain likely on and off during the day.  Very mild overnight - 17'C.
Friday will continue mostly cloudy with some showers in the breeze, if it stays cloudy then 22'C but with a bit of sun anything up to 25'C is possible.  23'C being the most likely.

Remember - I did say Hurricane Irene would affect our weather!

And I have just had three pints so this next part might not be so accurate - or it might be exceptionally so?

Saturday looks most likely to see low pressure coming from the south-west with an area of rain, still warm around 20'C.  Not exactly sure where the location it will hit, but if you are in the south, expect a period of rain.
Sunday looks like the next area of low pressure will be over Scotland, with high pressure building over France, so expect some showers but a bit of brightness at last, fresher, 18'C.
Monday might end up warm, dry and sunny at 24'C.  Though 30% chance that it might rain instead.

More rain quite possible on Tuesday but I am hopeful of some more warm and sunny weather after.

I do expect quite a bit of dry weather towards the latter half of September (with perhaps a surprise early frost), and especially more dry weather likely as we head into October, with some much warmer air than normal quite possible for a week around the beginning or into the middle.

The latter half of October and into November I expect more autumnal storm systems, and probably some quite potent ones with severe gales at times and plenty of persistent rain.  It may initially bring in a brief cold snap at the end of October before it really gets going.

Then winter begins...cold and dry at first, at least in the south, some areas getting some very heavy snowfall but Reading should miss out on the worst of it this time.

Which Sex Do Lightning Strikes Kill The Most?

Men.

Between 1995 and 2008, in the US, 82% of those killed were men.

One assumes because women are sensible enough to go indoors so they don't get their hair wet, whilst men continue playing golf, etc.

News report.

Snow, Snow & More Snow

Reading international weather news recently, I have found stories of unusual snowfall events.

Including, snow as far north in New Zealand as it has been in decades, 31 inches of snow in a desert in Chile where average rainfall is just 4mm a year (about the average amount of rain every day in England...I guess), and up to 60cm of snow in South Africa, another unusual event.

I have also heard reports of early snowfalls in the northern hemisphere despite it only just turning to autumn, in the Swiss mountains, mountains in Canada and even the top of the Scottish highlands.

One is expecting another cold winter - I will be very surprised if we do not at least match the volume of snow of 2010 (bear in mind most of it was in November and December here in the UK), and the cold temperatures.  I might get around to a full autumn/winter forecast this week.