Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 21st June 2011

Summer may well be about to make a re-appearance, which I am please about as I did expect good weather for a good proportion of late June and July, after a relatively poor June though I didn't expect quite this much rain.

Reason being, is firstly a pulse of warm, perhaps hot air from the south this weekend, albeit short-lived.  But happy with the timing.

Secondly, it looks like high pressure over Greenland will fade fairly soon, and the jetstream should move north of the UK.  Not set in stone yet but the first time it has looked possible for weeks.

Details...

Tuesday will be mainly cloudy as low pressure approaches from the west.  There may be some brightness at times, but equally there is a good chance, say 75%, of showers.  18'C in any sunshine, 16'C if it stays cloudy.  Breezy.
Wednesday cloudy with showers or perhaps longer spells of rain developing for a couple of hours, more likely in the afternoon, 17'C.  Breezy.
Thursday will see a cool northerly developing as the low pressure pulls away, but on the bright side the sun should come out.  Still a good chance of showers developing, especially in the afternoon, 16'C.
Friday sees high pressure building from the south-west, still plenty of cloud around I think, and a 50% chance of a shower but mainly light, 18'C if quite sunny, 16'C if mainly cloudy.
Saturday sees high pressure building somewhere near the UK, probably to the south or south-east, allowing much warmer air to come in, but it may be cloudy in the morning with a chance of rain.  I remain confident of a sunny afternoon though, and 22'C.  I will not be surprised though in my next forecast if I upgrade this to 25'C.

Confidence does start to diminish on exact details now, but I am 80% confident of the below outcomes.

Sunday sees high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, perfect for sucking up hot air from the south, 25'C should be reached across most of England, perhaps up to 28'C in the south, if lucky.  Oh and plenty of sunshine.
Monday will likely see low pressure edging closer, but the sunshine might hang on.  If it does get cloudy, then it should still be very warm at 24'C, if sunny then anywhere up to 28'C.  A 20-30% chance of thunderstorms developing.
Tuesday and Wednesday next week see low pressure likely to be influencing the weather, back down to around 19'C with the chance of showers.

I am 60% hopeful of high pressure building towards the weekend to give a warm and sunny start to July.

I hope you like this forecast more :-)