Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 21st July 2011

I hope you read the Met Office's press releases earlier this week about the next 30 days bringing rain, rain and more rain.

And I hope that you remember my much more positive weather forecasts, whilst recognising the changeable nature, I still think we will be able to class this summer as a decent summer.

I am delighted that the Met Office are so in disagreement with me.

Let battle commence.

If you read my previous forecast (a whole 7 of you did...I am not impressed), then you will know that last weekend's big summer low pressure that has gone to Scandinavia, is expected to head back west towards the UK which is exceptionally unusual, though in it's way is the Azores high pressure to our south-west, ridging towards us.

Friday will have more cloud than sun, but more sun than Thursday, with a 50% chance of a shower. The showers will be very slow moving and will therefore last an hour at minimum for any location.   Hail and thunder possible, but not especially likely.  Maybe 20'C.
Saturday sees the instability dissipate, but the low pressure to the east moves closer, I don't expect anything more than cloud and perhaps some spots of rain, also some brightness is quite possible, around 19'C.
Sunday will be the best day of the weekend, a reasonably good amount of sunshine, some cloud around, 21'C is quite possible which is only marginally below the average for this time of year.
Monday will see warmer air, but also a higher chance of cloud and a shower, 18'C if cloudy but 22'C if luckily sunny.
Tuesday will be cooler at around 18'C but more sunshine, and only a tiny chance of a light shower.
Wednesday should be a good sunny day, 21'C, with a few clouds.  It may be warmer than that.
Thursday looks sunny again as high pressure exerts more influence, 24'C perhaps.

Friday and the next weekend should remain mainly dry, chance of a shower perhaps on Sunday, 24 to 26'C.

I would say that there is a 30% chance of it getting close to 30'C that weekend but if it does then the chance of a late afternoon thundery downpour developing will be quite possible.

I would not at all be surprised if it actually turns out warmer and sunnier than I have predicted, hot rather than warm.

The chance of more unsettled weather looks likely to increase from roughly 4th August to 12th August but it should improve once again after that.

Please, if I am right and the Met Office is wrong, spread the word about my weather forecast.

Enjoy.  And remember - this is the best UK summer since 2006 if nothing else!!