Well, sod's law that the next models I looked at a few hours later showed two weeks worth of well-below average temperatures, rain nearly every day, often heavy and very little sunshine. And the next ones, and the next ones...and then I gave up in dispair.
I'm not overly worried, these things happen, and I think on Friday perhaps I was guilty of rushing my forecast and not taking enough data into account - I just used my favoured model that had been produced that morning (there are about 50-60 sets of data produced each day for Europe that I am aware of), and didn't look at enough variety.
So today, I have looked at many more - and I remain hopeful. The main difference from Friday's forecast is more unsettled this week with more showers and heavier showers than I originally expected and longer until it improves. Not actually a million miles away from my last forecast - nowhere near as awful as it looked 3 hours after my last forecast!!
Details...
Did you bring an umbrella today?
Today starting nice and maybe reaching 23'C but cloud increasing during the afternoon with some showery rain, which could be quite heavy at times, clearing during the evening.
Wednesday will see low pressure push into the west of the UK, with showers developing, but also some sunshine, much fresher at 17'C. I'd say 80% chance of a shower. Maybe some rain overnight.
Thursday has plenty more showers, more than Wednesday so very unlikely to stay dry, and heavier and possibly thundery, 17'C at best.
Friday will be a repeat of Thursday, 90% chance of a shower or three, heavy and possibly thundery, maybe 18'C in any sunshine.
Saturday should see the low pressure start to pull away, less showers though still a couple around, 50% chance of a couple, some sunshine and maybe up to 20'C if quite sunny.
Sunday should be pretty sunny, still some cloud and a small, 30% chance of a shower, warmer at 21'C.
From then on I am hopeful of a few more days of settled and warmer weather, perhaps up to 24'C, but I remain wary of some more unsettled weather for the middle of the month.
Still hopeful of more good weather during July - it is certainly looking much better than the previous 4 July's - just not quite as good as it could be.
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