Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 1st July 2011

I hope that you are enjoying your English summer.  Plenty more of it to come.  I always said it would come good in July, with a few brief interruptions, and I am sticking with it.  I am getting more confident.  Autumn I am not yet sure of, so I guess it will be much of a muchness, except of the cold plunge in November into December which I fully expect.

I am quite confident of heatwave conditions returning later in July, with temperatures going over 35'C - I would say that there is a 60% chance.  Pooh-pooh me if you like by me not saying yes or no as to whether it will happen, but it hasn't happened since 2006 I think, so I think I am being quite bold in this suggestion, it does require certain dynamics to be in place which are quite fragile, as you saw the weekend just gone.

So, onto a jolly good forecast (and I think my recent ones have been pretty on the ball - feel free to disagree - I can only improve).

Saturday will be another of those days like we have had with glorious sunshine to start, but the sun heats up some clouds and stops it from being a perfect day, but it will be nice, and should be a shade less cloud than the day before, 20'C or 22'C depending on sunshine amounts.  5% chance of a light shower later in the afternoon.
Sunday, we are still in this nothingness, no high pressure, no low pressure, slightly more sunshine potential again but plenty of cloud too, warmer, 22'C or 24'C depending on sunshine amounts.
Monday is marginally more interesting as low pressure approaches from the west and helps to suck up the warmth, 23'C or 25'C, again depending on the cloud/sun ratio in your exact location.  10% chance of a late sharp shower developing.
Tuesday sees the low pressure trying to move in but not getting too far and maybe even pushed back, more cloud I suspect and slightly cooler, perhaps a sharp shower, 21'C.  Not 100% confident on this.  It will be a reasonable day, whatever happens.
Wednesday should see a band of rain come across if all is coming to plan, as the low pressure gives up and goes northish of the UK, as high pressure seeks an entry from the south-west.  Cooler, 19'C maybe less.
Thursday should be fine, fairly sunny, still not warm, 18'C.
Friday, high pressure extends itself more, sunshine, few clouds 20'C.

And from then on, high pressure takes control, lots of days of 25'C sunshine and maybe getting to 30'C.

And maybe the heatwave?

You heard it here first...I hope.  I bloody well hope I am right on this...