Finally the cold weather I promised for January long ago has arrived, and it is set to get quite a bit colder too - we might even have a couple of ice days (where the temperature does not rise about 0'C all day).
It should become less cold later next weekend or into the new week.
Not quite as cold as Bulgaria which has -36'C forcasted for this week - ouch.
Sadly for snow lovers there is very little on offer...at the moment. Except if you live on the East Coast.
Tonight will be cold, clear and dry, down to -4'C so rather frosty.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny and dry though there is a 30% chance of a light snow shower making it this far inland during the afternoon - the breeze will from the east - a very cold direction in winter. No higher than 3'C during the day and down to -5'C overnight with another hard frost.
Wednesday will be sunny and dry, a touch colder at probably no more than 1'C and down to a colder -6'C overnight, possibly even lower than that.
Thursday again sunny and dry, but colder still at 0'C during the day and maybe -8'C overnight. Just a very small chance of a very light snow flurry during the day.
Friday looks interesting with a little feature developing over the North Sea and heading inland, at this point I rate the chance of snow in Reading at 30% but this might upgrade. 1'C during the day if lucky, -6'C overnight.
Saturday again has the chance of a snow shower or two, again around 30% chance but most showers will not have the strength to make it anywhere near as far inland as Reading.
Sunday into Monday looks like milder weather will start to come in from the west with rain - but I fully expect this to turn to snow and there could be a reasonable dumping. This is not yet set in stone and requires a little weakening of the high pressure over Russia and Scandinavia - the cold weather may well hang on for longer.
I will have more certainty on this and any possible snow showers for Friday, on my next forecast on Thursday evening.
I currently expect any mild incursion to be brief and a return to cold weather to follow during February.
Enjoy.
Monday, 30 January 2012
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 26th January 2012
I promised a change to cold, and finally the colder air is slowly starting to migrate from the east towards the UK.
However, the Atlantic warmth and rain is not willing to give up, so it looks like there will be a battle over the UK in the coming days between the milder, wet weather from the west, and the much colder, drier air from the east.
It will make for very interesting weather in some areas, some places will see snow but it will be hard to work out until probably the day before. And sometimes it will be too marginal to call - but it will be interesting.
If I become aware of the likelihood of snow, I will update my Facebook Weather Page.
For now:
Tonight will see any showers clearing and a fairly chilly night, down to 0'C with a slight frost possible.
Friday will start sunny but showers will develop, I would say there is a 70% chance of catching one or two, possibly a little sleety, chilly at 7'C, a frost overnight, down to -2'C.
Saturday will start sunny but frosty, high pressure is building, it will be chilly at around 5'C. A frost likely overnight again, down to -2'C, though there may be cloud starting to build from the west.
Sunday will see a band of rain coming from the west, however there is a chance that it might turn to snow - certainly on the hills it will, it is not likely to in Reading but there is a 30% chance and I might upgrade the chance if you ask me tomorrow. Don't be surprised to see a couple of hours of wet snow or sleet before it turns back to rain. Cold at 3'C, similar overnight.
Monday is a very interesting looking day. Cloudy with areas of precipitation around. The wind direction looks to turn to the east. Some areas will see snow. Again, Reading is not a favoured area but perhaps in the evening as it turns cold, it may snow a bit. 50% chance. On wet ground though, it isn't going to settle. 4'C at best during the day and down to -3'C overnight.
Tuesday is yet another interesting day with a 40% chance of some snow, but also some rain too. No higher than 3'C. Cold.
If I had to put a bet, I would say that the mild air will win out by Wednesday, but only temporarily, and then only to say 8'C, not especially mild.
And then a return to cold.
There is going to be so much very cold air over Europe that it would be silly if we did not get some proper wintry weather during the first half of February. Even the Met Office think there is a 66% chance of cold and snow during February!
As soon as I can firm up with details with regards to potential snow, I will do. Enjoy :-)
However, the Atlantic warmth and rain is not willing to give up, so it looks like there will be a battle over the UK in the coming days between the milder, wet weather from the west, and the much colder, drier air from the east.
It will make for very interesting weather in some areas, some places will see snow but it will be hard to work out until probably the day before. And sometimes it will be too marginal to call - but it will be interesting.
If I become aware of the likelihood of snow, I will update my Facebook Weather Page.
For now:
Tonight will see any showers clearing and a fairly chilly night, down to 0'C with a slight frost possible.
Friday will start sunny but showers will develop, I would say there is a 70% chance of catching one or two, possibly a little sleety, chilly at 7'C, a frost overnight, down to -2'C.
Saturday will start sunny but frosty, high pressure is building, it will be chilly at around 5'C. A frost likely overnight again, down to -2'C, though there may be cloud starting to build from the west.
Sunday will see a band of rain coming from the west, however there is a chance that it might turn to snow - certainly on the hills it will, it is not likely to in Reading but there is a 30% chance and I might upgrade the chance if you ask me tomorrow. Don't be surprised to see a couple of hours of wet snow or sleet before it turns back to rain. Cold at 3'C, similar overnight.
Monday is a very interesting looking day. Cloudy with areas of precipitation around. The wind direction looks to turn to the east. Some areas will see snow. Again, Reading is not a favoured area but perhaps in the evening as it turns cold, it may snow a bit. 50% chance. On wet ground though, it isn't going to settle. 4'C at best during the day and down to -3'C overnight.
Tuesday is yet another interesting day with a 40% chance of some snow, but also some rain too. No higher than 3'C. Cold.
If I had to put a bet, I would say that the mild air will win out by Wednesday, but only temporarily, and then only to say 8'C, not especially mild.
And then a return to cold.
There is going to be so much very cold air over Europe that it would be silly if we did not get some proper wintry weather during the first half of February. Even the Met Office think there is a 66% chance of cold and snow during February!
As soon as I can firm up with details with regards to potential snow, I will do. Enjoy :-)
Monday, 23 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 23rd January 2012
The story has not changed from the last few forecasts.
The weather models continue to tease - offering cold and snow but not quite yet in a reliable time-frame, but every time I do a forecast it does seem to be promised just that one day closer.
But this isn't the whole story.
In my previous forecast, the models were saying that it wasn't going to happen (though I didn't change my forecast of expecting cold and snow). Then over the weekend the models almost all pointed to snow - disruptive snow for a couple of weeks. Then this morning, they took almost all suggestion away, back to mild and wet.
And tonight - the snow is back on with a vengeance. Eventually. Perhaps.
If I have learnt one thing from about 8 years of model-watching, it is that not to count on any weather offerings by the models more than 5 days away unless they are from the west, north-west or south-west - which is where the majority of our weather comes from. And snow hardly ever comes from that direction.
The Met Office have suggested snow tomorrow for up north - it will not happen in Reading. I doubt that it will even happen up north except over the highest of hills, I do not know where they have got that one from.
Tonight sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK, clearing skies with a slight frost by dawn, 0'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and mild with rain during the day, heavy at times, 11'C by day and 8'C by night. the worst of the rain will clear around mid-afternoon with some light patchy bits following.
Wednesday will be windy, cloudy with light patchy rain at times, more general rain overnight. A mild 11'C by day, down to 5'C when the rain clears overnight.
Thursday will be cooler and breezy, 50% chance of a shower or two, but sunny spells too, 7'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Friday sees high pressure building, mostly dry with a 20% chance of a light shower. Sunny. 7'C by day and down to 0'C overnight with a slight frost.
Saturday and Sunday will most likely be a mixture of sunshine and cloud with some showers.
Sunday or Monday may see the cold weather start to dig in. If the cold weather arrives, don't expect it to get above -3'C even during the day.
And from then on? A month of cold and snow. Maybe.
I am sorry that I cannot be 100% confident. I really wish I could. I have always believed that a mild winter would turn to snow during January and still remain confident in my belief but the weather models, which I do have to take notice of instead of "my gut feelings" say 50/50.
So my forecast remains 50/50 that the cold weather will dig in during the weekend and into next week.
***
Previous forecast
The weather models continue to tease - offering cold and snow but not quite yet in a reliable time-frame, but every time I do a forecast it does seem to be promised just that one day closer.
But this isn't the whole story.
In my previous forecast, the models were saying that it wasn't going to happen (though I didn't change my forecast of expecting cold and snow). Then over the weekend the models almost all pointed to snow - disruptive snow for a couple of weeks. Then this morning, they took almost all suggestion away, back to mild and wet.
And tonight - the snow is back on with a vengeance. Eventually. Perhaps.
If I have learnt one thing from about 8 years of model-watching, it is that not to count on any weather offerings by the models more than 5 days away unless they are from the west, north-west or south-west - which is where the majority of our weather comes from. And snow hardly ever comes from that direction.
The Met Office have suggested snow tomorrow for up north - it will not happen in Reading. I doubt that it will even happen up north except over the highest of hills, I do not know where they have got that one from.
Tonight sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK, clearing skies with a slight frost by dawn, 0'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and mild with rain during the day, heavy at times, 11'C by day and 8'C by night. the worst of the rain will clear around mid-afternoon with some light patchy bits following.
Wednesday will be windy, cloudy with light patchy rain at times, more general rain overnight. A mild 11'C by day, down to 5'C when the rain clears overnight.
Thursday will be cooler and breezy, 50% chance of a shower or two, but sunny spells too, 7'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Friday sees high pressure building, mostly dry with a 20% chance of a light shower. Sunny. 7'C by day and down to 0'C overnight with a slight frost.
Saturday and Sunday will most likely be a mixture of sunshine and cloud with some showers.
Sunday or Monday may see the cold weather start to dig in. If the cold weather arrives, don't expect it to get above -3'C even during the day.
And from then on? A month of cold and snow. Maybe.
I am sorry that I cannot be 100% confident. I really wish I could. I have always believed that a mild winter would turn to snow during January and still remain confident in my belief but the weather models, which I do have to take notice of instead of "my gut feelings" say 50/50.
So my forecast remains 50/50 that the cold weather will dig in during the weekend and into next week.
***
Previous forecast
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 19th January 2012
Winter is still teasing us. It remains a case of close, but no snowy cigar. I still feel that the pattern is changing to cold, and I still expect winter to bite us, just not quite just yet...it is really taking its time, though the old pattern was so set in after month upon month that it is not a surprise.
Tonight will be breezy, there is a chance of a shower too, no lower than 3'C.
Friday will see a band of rain coming down from the north-west, it looks to be moving quite slowly once it arrives so some places will get rain all day, others will escape with some patchy rain, 8'C by day and up to 10'C overnight, oh and it will be windy all day.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with showers, they will be hit and miss, you might get 5 showers or none, still remaining windy, 11'C by day, drier overnight and down to 3'C.
Sunday should be sunny, but there will again be a chance of showers in the breeze, 9'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Monday develops a chilly northerly, mostly sunny, odd shower around, 6'C by day and -1'C overnight with a frost.
The battle between wet and windy weather from the Atlantic and the increasing cold over Russia, both heading our way will continue next week, with the Atlantic winning. For now.
Spring and summer thoughts?
At the moment I think both will be drier than average, especially spring. Spring I don't yet see being as warm as 2011 but this could change, but certainly lots of sunshine at times. Summer I do see as warmer than average this year. Doesn't mean it will be dry and sunny though! I know I am not exactly sticking my neck out here, but I am formulating ideas right now and it is way too early for me to be confident. Especially seeing as my forecasting wasn't always up to my usual standards during July and August.
Tonight will be breezy, there is a chance of a shower too, no lower than 3'C.
Friday will see a band of rain coming down from the north-west, it looks to be moving quite slowly once it arrives so some places will get rain all day, others will escape with some patchy rain, 8'C by day and up to 10'C overnight, oh and it will be windy all day.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with showers, they will be hit and miss, you might get 5 showers or none, still remaining windy, 11'C by day, drier overnight and down to 3'C.
Sunday should be sunny, but there will again be a chance of showers in the breeze, 9'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Monday develops a chilly northerly, mostly sunny, odd shower around, 6'C by day and -1'C overnight with a frost.
The battle between wet and windy weather from the Atlantic and the increasing cold over Russia, both heading our way will continue next week, with the Atlantic winning. For now.
Spring and summer thoughts?
At the moment I think both will be drier than average, especially spring. Spring I don't yet see being as warm as 2011 but this could change, but certainly lots of sunshine at times. Summer I do see as warmer than average this year. Doesn't mean it will be dry and sunny though! I know I am not exactly sticking my neck out here, but I am formulating ideas right now and it is way too early for me to be confident. Especially seeing as my forecasting wasn't always up to my usual standards during July and August.
Monday, 16 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 16th January 2012
Fear not, my last forecast wasn't real - I wouldn't let you down would I?
Finally we have had some cold weather, with it getting down to -4.6'C on Saturday morning in Reading.
Currently it is already below freezing, and I expect it to get down to something like -4'C again tonight in clear skies.
Tuesday will start cold and sunny but it will cloud over during the day, 6'C by day, and down to around 1'C overnight so we should just escape a frost, with a few spots of rain by dawn.
Wednesday will be cloudy with outbreaks of mainly light to moderate rain, drier overnight, reaching a mild 11'C by day and 6'C overnight. Breezy too.
Thursday will be cooler in a chilly wind from the north-west, quite sunny with a good chance of a shower or two, and some more general outbreaks of rain overnight, 7'C by day, 3'C at night.
Friday will be fairly cloudy, a little sunshine, more showers and some showery rain overnight, any rain will be light to moderate, around 7'C.
And what about the wintry weather for the weekend that I said was 50% likely?
Well, not so likely, surprise, surprise (I said it never snows on my birthday).
Saturday will have a cold northerly wind, down to 6'C by day, 1'C at night, chance of a shower or two...of rain.
Sunday might even see a north-easterly wind but the proper cold won't quite get across the north sea, maybe there might be a wintry flurry but I wouldn't put a bet on it. 4'C by day, -3'C overnight.
Monday looks likely to see rain coming in from the west, turning to snow in some areas however Reading is not one of the places that is likely to see snow, a 10% chance. 3'C.
I'm not fully confident on this outcome for the weekend, I would not be surprised if it were actually a little milder and wetter.
The remainder of the month and into February will remain changeable and almost certainly less mild than December and January so far, with more cold weather at times and much less rain.
Over and out and asleep.
Finally we have had some cold weather, with it getting down to -4.6'C on Saturday morning in Reading.
Currently it is already below freezing, and I expect it to get down to something like -4'C again tonight in clear skies.
Tuesday will start cold and sunny but it will cloud over during the day, 6'C by day, and down to around 1'C overnight so we should just escape a frost, with a few spots of rain by dawn.
Wednesday will be cloudy with outbreaks of mainly light to moderate rain, drier overnight, reaching a mild 11'C by day and 6'C overnight. Breezy too.
Thursday will be cooler in a chilly wind from the north-west, quite sunny with a good chance of a shower or two, and some more general outbreaks of rain overnight, 7'C by day, 3'C at night.
Friday will be fairly cloudy, a little sunshine, more showers and some showery rain overnight, any rain will be light to moderate, around 7'C.
And what about the wintry weather for the weekend that I said was 50% likely?
Well, not so likely, surprise, surprise (I said it never snows on my birthday).
Saturday will have a cold northerly wind, down to 6'C by day, 1'C at night, chance of a shower or two...of rain.
Sunday might even see a north-easterly wind but the proper cold won't quite get across the north sea, maybe there might be a wintry flurry but I wouldn't put a bet on it. 4'C by day, -3'C overnight.
Monday looks likely to see rain coming in from the west, turning to snow in some areas however Reading is not one of the places that is likely to see snow, a 10% chance. 3'C.
I'm not fully confident on this outcome for the weekend, I would not be surprised if it were actually a little milder and wetter.
The remainder of the month and into February will remain changeable and almost certainly less mild than December and January so far, with more cold weather at times and much less rain.
Over and out and asleep.
A Weather Forecast
Some dry weather, cold or mild, some sunshine or some cloud with a chance of rain one day soon.
Dark overnight.
I hope that helps, I'm going to bed.
Dark overnight.
I hope that helps, I'm going to bed.
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 12th January 2012
Those of you that clicked like on the Facebook box will have seen this week just how up and down the models are as I posted regular updates - and what I have to cope with to try to come up with a sane sounding weather forecast - because if I wrote up the model output every day you would be as confused as hell, especially when the weather is going through a process of change like it is now.
We are still going to have a cold snap, but just cold temperatures and frost - no chance of snow. Lots of wintry sunshine though. But next weekend...oh I shouldn't tell you, it might not come true.
But if you really want to see snow, then how about these pictures of snow in Alaska - 1963 was the last time we had that kind of amount in England, so I believe!
I'll show you a picture of the sunset in Reading tonight. I am not blessed with photography skills but I managed somehow in my blurry ways to get lots of pretty lights in it:
Tonight there is still a bit of cloud around. We are under an area of high pressure, no wind, and dropping temperatures - it shouldn't go lower than 1'C.
Friday will be sunny, a bit of cloud but dry, chilly at 6'C and a frost overnight, down to -2'C. A 20% chance of fog developing.
Saturday will be a crisp, sunny, wintry day, 5'C by day, -2'C by night.
Sunday may see a bit more cloud, still a chilly 5'C by day and down to -3'C by night.
Monday sees little change, sunnier than the day before, 5'C by day, down to -4'C at night.
Tuesday looks a touch milder after a cold start at 6'C, cloud should develop which will keep the frost away at night, 1'C (I am not 100% confident on no frost yet, it is quite 50/50).
I have to admit that I am not sure about Wednesday or Thursday - they could be dry and cold, but could be milder with wind and rain. 50/50. I'll know by Monday's forecast.
OK, seeing as it is my birthday weekend next weekend, I shall tell you what is forecast.
Low pressure coming down from the north on Friday, dragging easterly winds from the continent (which is having the very cold spell that I mentioned on previous forecasts which isn't getting here as I thought it might), the low pressure to stick around all weekend and Friday's outbreaks of rain, turning to snow either on Saturday or Sunday.
But it never snows on my birthday.
I will kind of believe it when I see it, but if it is forecast the same when I do my Monday forecast then you can get your sledges out (though I would wait until my Thursday forecast to dust them off).
As it stands it is 50% likely to snow next weekend. But not before.
***
Previous forecast
We are still going to have a cold snap, but just cold temperatures and frost - no chance of snow. Lots of wintry sunshine though. But next weekend...oh I shouldn't tell you, it might not come true.
But if you really want to see snow, then how about these pictures of snow in Alaska - 1963 was the last time we had that kind of amount in England, so I believe!
I'll show you a picture of the sunset in Reading tonight. I am not blessed with photography skills but I managed somehow in my blurry ways to get lots of pretty lights in it:
Tonight there is still a bit of cloud around. We are under an area of high pressure, no wind, and dropping temperatures - it shouldn't go lower than 1'C.
Friday will be sunny, a bit of cloud but dry, chilly at 6'C and a frost overnight, down to -2'C. A 20% chance of fog developing.
Saturday will be a crisp, sunny, wintry day, 5'C by day, -2'C by night.
Sunday may see a bit more cloud, still a chilly 5'C by day and down to -3'C by night.
Monday sees little change, sunnier than the day before, 5'C by day, down to -4'C at night.
Tuesday looks a touch milder after a cold start at 6'C, cloud should develop which will keep the frost away at night, 1'C (I am not 100% confident on no frost yet, it is quite 50/50).
I have to admit that I am not sure about Wednesday or Thursday - they could be dry and cold, but could be milder with wind and rain. 50/50. I'll know by Monday's forecast.
OK, seeing as it is my birthday weekend next weekend, I shall tell you what is forecast.
Low pressure coming down from the north on Friday, dragging easterly winds from the continent (which is having the very cold spell that I mentioned on previous forecasts which isn't getting here as I thought it might), the low pressure to stick around all weekend and Friday's outbreaks of rain, turning to snow either on Saturday or Sunday.
But it never snows on my birthday.
I will kind of believe it when I see it, but if it is forecast the same when I do my Monday forecast then you can get your sledges out (though I would wait until my Thursday forecast to dust them off).
As it stands it is 50% likely to snow next weekend. But not before.
***
Previous forecast
Monday, 9 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 9th January 2012
I have been banging on for ages about the worst of this winter being in January, and for the last month or so how I thought that the weather would change around the middle of January - and finally the weather models are showing weather eye candy. Free days off from work kind of eye candy.
But don't get too excited yet.
I am only 50% confident - though last Thursday I was only 30% confident.
After months of almost non-stop westerly or south-westerly winds, for it to suddenly change to easterly would be quite some atmospheric doing, we either need the jetstream to go south of the UK, or to split and go north and south. It looks like doing one of them.
Even if an easterly wind becomes 100% guaranteed - there is no guarantee of snow. Many times before the last few wintry winters we had dry easterlies with just a few snow grains to get excited about, albeit with freezing cold temperatures. However, the biggest historic snowfalls have come from easterlies.
For now, we have our last mild week, a dry week too for a change, and something almost springlike in the sunshine:
Tonight sees high pressure in charge, no lower than 8'C.
Tuesday will see periods of cloud, and periods of sunshine, 11'C by day, down to 5'C overnight in clear skies.
Wednesday will again see some sunny periods, but also cloud at times, 10'C by day, 6'C overnight.
Thursday a touch milder at up to 12'C, there will be sunshine at times, but also cloud, down to 4'C overnight.
Friday will see high pressure getting squeezed from both the west and the east by low pressure systems, but still dry with some sunny periods, 9'C by day, maybe down to 0'C overnight with a possible frost.
My confidence is not so high from now:
Saturday looks like a band of rain will approach from the west but it may not reach Reading, most likely it will start sunny and cold but cloud over. 7'C.
Sunday currently looks like this band of rain should finally reach Reading but will probably get no further before moving south, allowing colder air to start filtering in from the east, 4'C by day, -3'C by night. However, as this cold air starts to move in, the rain could turn to snow. 20% chance currently.
If current projections come true then for next Monday onwards, cold and getting colder, anywhere down to 0'C by day and -8'C by night.
Even if they don't and the mild westerlies win back for a few more days, I fully believe that winter will make another attempt in time for the weekend after.
Remember folks, this is current projections, it will take a lot of atmospheric changes for the cold and snow to come off.
Next forecast is Thursday - I will update my weather page on Facebook before then with regards to the likelihood of cold and snow, most likely every day.
But don't get too excited yet.
I am only 50% confident - though last Thursday I was only 30% confident.
After months of almost non-stop westerly or south-westerly winds, for it to suddenly change to easterly would be quite some atmospheric doing, we either need the jetstream to go south of the UK, or to split and go north and south. It looks like doing one of them.
Even if an easterly wind becomes 100% guaranteed - there is no guarantee of snow. Many times before the last few wintry winters we had dry easterlies with just a few snow grains to get excited about, albeit with freezing cold temperatures. However, the biggest historic snowfalls have come from easterlies.
For now, we have our last mild week, a dry week too for a change, and something almost springlike in the sunshine:
Tonight sees high pressure in charge, no lower than 8'C.
Tuesday will see periods of cloud, and periods of sunshine, 11'C by day, down to 5'C overnight in clear skies.
Wednesday will again see some sunny periods, but also cloud at times, 10'C by day, 6'C overnight.
Thursday a touch milder at up to 12'C, there will be sunshine at times, but also cloud, down to 4'C overnight.
Friday will see high pressure getting squeezed from both the west and the east by low pressure systems, but still dry with some sunny periods, 9'C by day, maybe down to 0'C overnight with a possible frost.
My confidence is not so high from now:
Saturday looks like a band of rain will approach from the west but it may not reach Reading, most likely it will start sunny and cold but cloud over. 7'C.
Sunday currently looks like this band of rain should finally reach Reading but will probably get no further before moving south, allowing colder air to start filtering in from the east, 4'C by day, -3'C by night. However, as this cold air starts to move in, the rain could turn to snow. 20% chance currently.
If current projections come true then for next Monday onwards, cold and getting colder, anywhere down to 0'C by day and -8'C by night.
Even if they don't and the mild westerlies win back for a few more days, I fully believe that winter will make another attempt in time for the weekend after.
Remember folks, this is current projections, it will take a lot of atmospheric changes for the cold and snow to come off.
Next forecast is Thursday - I will update my weather page on Facebook before then with regards to the likelihood of cold and snow, most likely every day.
Thursday, 5 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 5th January 2012
The wind was quite the story this week - always good to get a good blow.
I was going to take a picture of a few large twigs on the pavement near my house, but I have a photo of some blown over fences from Twyford. Thanks to Carley for the photo, I hope your landlord puts them back up and not you!
I am getting increasingly confident that my prediction of a cold, snow-filled second half of January might actually come true despite the last 3-4 months of mild weather and absolutely no sign of winter to date.
This time next week I should be able to say yes or no for definite. The time-scale is somewhere from the 15th onwards, with my birthday weekend being prime target. It never snows on my birthday.
On my previous forecast, I was living in hope, 10% confident. I am now 30% confident of this. A big improvement but quite a way from getting excited. Not that I am particularly excited about freezing my tits off...I just like being right.
For now, we are entering a more benign period of weather (boring) which after all the wind and rain of the last week may appeal, as high pressure builds from the south at last.
Tonight, dry with a chilly breeze dying out, 2'C.
Friday will start bright, more cloud later with a couple of showers in the evening and overnight, 7'C by day, 9'C by night - still breezy.
Saturday will be bright with some sunshine, some clouds, and dry, 8'C by day, 3'C by night.
Sunday will be cloudy with some patchy rain during the day but not amounting to much, mild 11'C by day, 7'C by night.
Monday may start cloudy with a spot of drizzle but I expect it to become sunny and will be rather pleasant at up to 12'C, cool overnight, down to 1'C, maybe a touch lower with a slight frost.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny, some cloud developing perhaps. It should reach 10'C - overnight anywhere between 0'C and 7'C depending on cloud levels - sorry but your guess is as good as mine on that one right now.
Wednesday again I am hopeful for some sunshine and if so it could reach a balmy 13'C, lower if it stays cloudy. Again, night-time temperature depends on cloud levels - anywhere from 0'C to 8'C.
Thursday and Friday also dry but I cannot say whether cloudy or sunny yet, but it will most likely remain mild. There is a chance of fog forming but at the moment I rate it as a small chance, I will confirm on the next forecast.
Next weekend looks unsettled.
Then the will-it, won't-it fun begins.
I hope to be the first to tell you.
I've been lacking in weather photos recently so please do send one if you can.
I was going to take a picture of a few large twigs on the pavement near my house, but I have a photo of some blown over fences from Twyford. Thanks to Carley for the photo, I hope your landlord puts them back up and not you!
I am getting increasingly confident that my prediction of a cold, snow-filled second half of January might actually come true despite the last 3-4 months of mild weather and absolutely no sign of winter to date.
This time next week I should be able to say yes or no for definite. The time-scale is somewhere from the 15th onwards, with my birthday weekend being prime target. It never snows on my birthday.
On my previous forecast, I was living in hope, 10% confident. I am now 30% confident of this. A big improvement but quite a way from getting excited. Not that I am particularly excited about freezing my tits off...I just like being right.
For now, we are entering a more benign period of weather (boring) which after all the wind and rain of the last week may appeal, as high pressure builds from the south at last.
Tonight, dry with a chilly breeze dying out, 2'C.
Friday will start bright, more cloud later with a couple of showers in the evening and overnight, 7'C by day, 9'C by night - still breezy.
Saturday will be bright with some sunshine, some clouds, and dry, 8'C by day, 3'C by night.
Sunday will be cloudy with some patchy rain during the day but not amounting to much, mild 11'C by day, 7'C by night.
Monday may start cloudy with a spot of drizzle but I expect it to become sunny and will be rather pleasant at up to 12'C, cool overnight, down to 1'C, maybe a touch lower with a slight frost.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny, some cloud developing perhaps. It should reach 10'C - overnight anywhere between 0'C and 7'C depending on cloud levels - sorry but your guess is as good as mine on that one right now.
Wednesday again I am hopeful for some sunshine and if so it could reach a balmy 13'C, lower if it stays cloudy. Again, night-time temperature depends on cloud levels - anywhere from 0'C to 8'C.
Thursday and Friday also dry but I cannot say whether cloudy or sunny yet, but it will most likely remain mild. There is a chance of fog forming but at the moment I rate it as a small chance, I will confirm on the next forecast.
Next weekend looks unsettled.
Then the will-it, won't-it fun begins.
I hope to be the first to tell you.
I've been lacking in weather photos recently so please do send one if you can.
Monday, 2 January 2012
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 2nd January 2012
Happy new year, and welcome to a slightly new look weather blog - with a new background, a Facebook box to the right, and also I have reduced the amount of posts showing on the home page so it should load up quicker.
But no happy new year wishes from the Atlantic Ocean as Tuesday morning will see severe gales and heavy rain - enough to possibly cause damage and disruption.
More in a minute as I want to point you to this foam sea storm near Blackpool the other day - again during a bout of severe gales. Quite unusual!
And did you know that 2011 was the second warmest year in the UK - and that is despite the coolest summer for 20 years. Yes, April, May, September, October and November were all well above average months.
Tonight will become windy, eventually with gales and heavy rain after midnight, 5'C.
Tuesday will start with heavy rain, which will last until well into the afternoon, and noticeably strong winds, possibly gusting up to 70mph in the Reading area which is enough for some small-scale damage and disruption, ie the odd blocked road from branches, etc. The worst weather will be for morning rush-hour, and the winds will again be strong in the evening and over-night. A mild 11'C by day but a cold 3'C overnight in a cold wind.
Wednesday will be windy with a couple of light showers, some sunshine too. Gales again in the evening and overnight, with more rain, this time from a northerly direction overnight, 7'C by day, 9'C in the rain overnight.
Thursday will have a chilly north-westerly to northerly wind but still 8'C in the cloud and showery rain, nothing too heavy, clearing later in the day to bright skies and chilly overnight, down to 2'C.
Friday will be fairly cloudy, with some showers, but a little brightness too, 9'C by day and night, oh and breezy still.
Saturday again sees the return of a chilly north-westerly to northerly wind, but again still around 7'C. It should be sunny, with just a small chance of a passing shower. 2'C overnight.
Sunday onwards should see the growth of high pressure, so drier and eventually cooler with some frosts possible.
I am still hopeful that my long-term winter prediction of cold and snowy weather in January, particularly from the half-way point will come true and there are indications of a pattern change to colder weather around 14th January.
It may only be frost and fog cold to start with - La Nina may well extend through to February and thereby delay the onset of any cold weather.
The advantage of cold weather arriving any time from mid-February is that the sun is just about strong enough to allow for home-grown snow showers as opposed to them having to be imported in the wind (when they will often die out before reaching Reading) - though on the downside the sun being stronger means that any snow melts much quicker!
Anyway, the signs of a change to colder weather in 10-14 days are only tentative so do not start buying sledges just yet.
But no happy new year wishes from the Atlantic Ocean as Tuesday morning will see severe gales and heavy rain - enough to possibly cause damage and disruption.
More in a minute as I want to point you to this foam sea storm near Blackpool the other day - again during a bout of severe gales. Quite unusual!
And did you know that 2011 was the second warmest year in the UK - and that is despite the coolest summer for 20 years. Yes, April, May, September, October and November were all well above average months.
Tonight will become windy, eventually with gales and heavy rain after midnight, 5'C.
Tuesday will start with heavy rain, which will last until well into the afternoon, and noticeably strong winds, possibly gusting up to 70mph in the Reading area which is enough for some small-scale damage and disruption, ie the odd blocked road from branches, etc. The worst weather will be for morning rush-hour, and the winds will again be strong in the evening and over-night. A mild 11'C by day but a cold 3'C overnight in a cold wind.
Wednesday will be windy with a couple of light showers, some sunshine too. Gales again in the evening and overnight, with more rain, this time from a northerly direction overnight, 7'C by day, 9'C in the rain overnight.
Thursday will have a chilly north-westerly to northerly wind but still 8'C in the cloud and showery rain, nothing too heavy, clearing later in the day to bright skies and chilly overnight, down to 2'C.
Friday will be fairly cloudy, with some showers, but a little brightness too, 9'C by day and night, oh and breezy still.
Saturday again sees the return of a chilly north-westerly to northerly wind, but again still around 7'C. It should be sunny, with just a small chance of a passing shower. 2'C overnight.
Sunday onwards should see the growth of high pressure, so drier and eventually cooler with some frosts possible.
I am still hopeful that my long-term winter prediction of cold and snowy weather in January, particularly from the half-way point will come true and there are indications of a pattern change to colder weather around 14th January.
It may only be frost and fog cold to start with - La Nina may well extend through to February and thereby delay the onset of any cold weather.
The advantage of cold weather arriving any time from mid-February is that the sun is just about strong enough to allow for home-grown snow showers as opposed to them having to be imported in the wind (when they will often die out before reaching Reading) - though on the downside the sun being stronger means that any snow melts much quicker!
Anyway, the signs of a change to colder weather in 10-14 days are only tentative so do not start buying sledges just yet.
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