Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 27th February 2012

Summer followed by autumn...followed by winter?

I have long been saying more cold weather in March with the potential for snow and finally the model output is starting to come round to my ideas...I always like it when this happens!  One of the models showed a very large fall of snow for next Monday across the south of England, even Reading.

But it was just one of many model outputs - most are not yet showing any snow.

And all are showing plenty more good weather this week:

Tonight will be cloudy, a few spots of light rain in the evening, no lower than 8'C.

Tuesday will be fairly cloudy but I am hopeful of the sun breaking through and if it does for a while then it could reach a very pleasant 17'C.  Some places like Hull may reach 19'C.  No lower than 9'C overnight.

Wednesday will be sunnier, with some good sunny spells and possibly up to 15'C.  There will be cloudy spells too especially in the morning.  4'C overnight.

Thursday will also see a good amount of sunshine, some cloud too though hopefully the sunniest day of the week so far and up to 15'C again.  4'C overnight.

Friday is also looking sunny and up to 15'C, and around 5'C overnight.

Saturday is a little uncertain but it currently looks like starting sunny but rain for the evening.  15'C is possible again.

The temperatures will then drop back for at least a week.

There is potential for significant rain on Sunday but at the moment the track of the low pressure is very uncertain.

And then it is a question of how cold it will get, and whether it will snow.  As I said last time, the time-frame is around 5th to 10th March for the change to cold.

Enjoy the reasonably nice weather this week :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 23rd February 2012

I might have been expecting a pleasant and relatively warm day but I wasn't expecting that much sunshine.

Good wasn't it?

It reached 16.2'C here in Reading - the highest temperature I can find for today was 19.0'C in Great Yarmouth (more sheltered from the south-westerly breeze than us) which is just short of the February record of 19.2'C.

Plenty more good weather to come - though of course the weekend will be less warm before warming up again on Monday!

Tonight will be dry and mild at 11'C.
Friday will see plenty of cloud around but also some sunny breaks especially earlier in the day.  The cloud may be thick enough for some spots of rain by the evening, and there will be patchy outbreaks of rain overnight, 14'C by day (warmer if you get lucky with the sunshine), 8'C overnight.
Saturday will likely start cloudy with the odd spot of rain early on but I am confident of some sunny spells developing as the day goes on, 13'C during the day but a chilly 2'C overnight.
Sunday will start sunny though it will tend to cloud over later in the day.  14'C if we are lucky, some patchy rain later in the night, 8'C.
Monday will be cloudy with a mild breeze and some patches of mostly light rain.  15'C is quite possible.  6'C overnight as the skies clear.
Tuesday I am hopeful of a good sunny day and possibly up to 16'C, maybe 17'C.  9'C overnight.

I would expect the rest of next week to be mostly dry, more cloud than sun, some light rain at times.

Pretty benign weather really.

I still repeat that I am expecting more cold with the potential for snow in March.  Currently I have somewhere between the 5th and the 10th March pencilled in.

I have no reason to be confident about this as virtually none of the models have shown it as a possibility over the last week or so.  I'm sticking to my guns, I don't mind falling on my meteorological sword - I cannot get it right every time.

I need a supercomputer like the Met Office.

Or maybe not.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 20th February 2012

Finally a touch of warmth this week - I say finally, it hasn't exactly been that long since reasonable temperatures and just a couple of years ago it didn't reach 15'C for the first time until well into April.

So this is quite unusual.  But not too unusual to be above 15'C in February with the wind from the right direction and some sunshine.  Don't even try suggesting any of that global warming crap - many of the daily record temperatures were set in the 19th century.

Thanks to the lovely Natalie for letting me steal this lovely sun-rise photo.

Tonight will be dry, down to 2'C assuming the cloud breaks a bit.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, a few spots of light rain, the odd sunny break too, 10'C by day and 5'C by night, breezy.
Wednesday will be cloudy, quite windy with outbreaks of moderate rain in the afternoon, clearing during the evening.  Mild at 12'C by day and no lower than 9'C at night.
Thursday will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with more emphasis on cloud.  Those areas that stay cloudy all day will be around 13'C but those with some sunshine could reach 16'C, maybe even 17'C.  Keep your fingers crossed.  9'C overnight.
Friday will see more sunshine than cloud, and with luck temperatures should rise to 15'C.  Cooler weather spreading down in the evening, down to 2'C overnight, perhaps a little lower with a frost.
Saturday looks mostly sunny, 11'C, chilly overnight again.

For the end of February and beginning of March I still see a cool-down with some possible wintriness, though perhaps more in the way of frost.

I have long thought March will see more cold weather and snow, and I still stick to that.

However I am now thinking there will also be significant rain and wind for part of it too.  Not enough to beat the drought but a helping hand for farmers, at least.  I don't expect any better than average temperatures in March - that isn't too say that there won't be one or two sunny and fairly warm days, but on average - no better than average.

I'm not decided for April yet though I am tending towards above-average rainfall.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 16th February 2012

Time for a little weather roller-coaster.  I think I have nearly everything in here from sunshine to snow, rain, wind, frost and...t-shirt weather?

Time for my weather picture:

Yeah I know it is a bit blurry.  Stop moaning and send me one of your own.

Please.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, perhaps thick enough for a spot of drizzle by dawn, no lower than 6'C.
Friday will be cloudy with some patchy drizzle at times.  Rather mild at 12'C to 13'C.
Saturday will be cloudy with rain coming down from the north for around midday to 6pm, give or take.  It will likely be heavy at times with a chance of a rumble of thunder.  There will be a cold breeze - 9'C to start the day but quickly falling down to -2'C after the rain.  Oh incidentally, the rain could turn wintry on the back edge for a very short period.
Sunday is uncertain but it will be cold at no higher than 4'C and there is a 30% chance of a couple of snow showers.  Nothing too heavy so don't get excited.
Monday sees the wind turn to the west and then the south-west - coming not too far away from the equator so a very warm source.  Still only 7'C but it should be sunny to start - some cloud later with some light rain.  2'C overnight.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, some bright spells are possible though.  Rain overnight.  10'C by day and 6'C overnight, breezy.
Wednesday currently looks like a little rain feature developing which could be heavy.  If it does rain then 8'C - if it doesn't develop then up to 12'C.  70% likely for the rain at the moment.
Thursday could be the highlight of the year so far as the mild breeze continues and it will likely reach 15'C across parts of England (as I suggested on my last forecast) - it will need a little sunshine so if it stays cloudy in your location then 12'C is most likely.

I see it remaining changeable for the rest of the month and I am still expecting March to see more cold and snow.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 13th February 2012

Well that is the coldest part of the winter done with.  It reached a minimum of -10.2'C early on Saturday morning.  Damn cold.

I don't rule out a return to more cold weather with snow, in fact I think it quite likely, say 60%.  If you want to see some real snow, there are a couple of videos here with rather a fair amount of snow.  It is in a foreign language but the pictures are picturey.

I remembered to take a couple of pretty pictures too:

Ahh.

Tonight will have the odd spot of rain at first, then clearing with a slight frost possible, 0'c to 1'C.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, a few sunny breaks, breezy, dry and 7'C.  3'C overnight.
Wednesday will be a bit sunnier but still plenty of cloud around, a small chance of a light shower but it should be dry, a fairly mild 9'C by day, 3'C by night.
Thursday sees the wind swing round to the west, it will be mostly cloudy, mild at 10'C.  A little light rain in the evening and overnight, 5'C.
Friday will be cloudy with some outbreaks of rain, mostly likely in the afternoon or evening, mild at 11'C.  4'C overnight.
Saturday will see rain coming down from the north, mild at first at around 10'C but cooling down once the rain passes to below freezing overnight.  The rain during the day could be heavy for a while.  Windy too.  Any light showers overnight could fall as sleet or snow.

Sunday is not yet set in stone, but most likely to still be cold with a chance of more sleet or perhaps snow.  I will know more come Thursday's forecast.

The most likely option for the week after is for wind and rain but mild.  The question I have now is - can we reach 15'C before the end of the month?  I wouldn't rule it out.

Until of course the cold probably comes back.

One more lovely photo of snow just to remind you...

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 9th February 2012

As ever during a UK cold snap, it remains predictably unpredictable.

Though I am pleased to say that I did suggest more significant snow on last Thursday's forecast for today.

Tonight will see light and patchy snow at first but in Reading we should get 2-3 hours of moderate to fairly heavy snow from 9pm.  Enough to give 3-5cm I should think - some areas will get more than others, it will be quite localised.  After midnight it will become light and patchy again.  -1'C.
Friday will see any light and patchy snow clearing early.  I am hopeful for some sunshine during the afternoon.  Cold at 1'C with a severe frost overnight, down to -7'C quite possibly.
Saturday will be cold and sunny, possibly not above 0'C.  It will quickly become cold overnight, down to -4'C but will become less cold as the night goes on and cloud increases, with a little light sleet or snow by dawn.
Sunday will be mostly cloudy and slightly milder, up to 4'C.  There will be precipitation around, most likely to be light rain.  It will be patchy - nothing significant.  0'C overnight.
Monday will see a cold northerly wind developing, but paradoxically it will be milder at 7'C.  There should be a few sunny breaks - any showers will be of rain.  1'C overnight.
Tuesday will continue with this cold northerly wind, 4'C at best but feeling much colder.  Fair with some showers which could be wintry.

Wednesday has the potential for another snow event, currently 30% likely.

The second half of February looks much more unsettled.

This will most likely mean an end to the cold weather later next week for a few days, maybe a week, but in its place more rain and some wind too.  I would say a 70% chance of this change occurring.

However I am still confident of more cold weather to follow by the end of February and during March.

Feel free to send me a snowy photo for my next blog.

Snow Update - 8th February 2011

The chance of snow for Thursday evening is now around 80% lasting roughly from 6pm until well into Friday morning.

I think the heaviest will be 50 miles or so to the west/north-west of Reading, but we should still get 3-5cm - enough to cause problems getting to work on Friday morning.

Next Wednesday still has the potential for snow - I am only 50% confident on that one though.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 7th February 2012

Apologies for the lack of my usual Monday forecast last night, I was busy celebrating, one thing led to another, led to another and by 5am I couldn't see the screen.

Winter is definitely set to continue...no snow of significance for now but I might have something to say about that come the end of my forecast.  Maybe.  But potentially the coldest night of the winter so far tonight (the coldest last week in Reading was -8.8'C).

Did you enjoy the snow?  I didn't bother with a snowman in the end.

This is my neighbour's attempt:

I'm waiting for it to snow, PROPERLY.

My sister had a much better attempt and I am suitably jealous:

Tonight will be mostly clear and frosty, down to -8'C, possibly lower.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny though some areas of cloud at times, probably not getting above 0'C and down to -7'C overnight, maybe slightly less cold if cloudier than currently expecting.
Thursday might reach a balmy 2'C but it will be a much cloudier day.  Outbreaks of light rain will head down from the north-west during the day, reaching Reading later in the evening and potentially falling as snow.  I would say 60% chance of snow but it won't be more than 1cm.  I will of course update nearer the time if this changes.  -2'C overnight with the light and patchy wintry mix continuing.
Friday will start cloudy, any bits of light rain, sleet and snow clearing and the sun should come out, it might even reach 3'C.  Cold and frosty overnight and down to -6'C.
Saturday will be cold, sunny and dry, frosty overnight, 2'C by day and -5'C overnight.  Interestingly high pressure is building over the Atlantic and Greenland - an excellent way to stop the Atlantic conveyor belt of wind, rain and mild weather getting to the UK.  This happened late November 2010 - remember what followed?!
Sunday will be noticeably less cold, maybe 5'C, still mostly sunny, a bit of cloud and only -1'C overnight.
Monday maybe a little light rain and a shocking 7'C!

For the middle of next week I favour low pressure coming down from the north with a cold, Arctic blast, maybe rain at first but as the wind potentially swings to the north-east it could turn to snow.  And it could be significant.

Wednesday is the key day.

It is way too early to be sure yet, this is not a pattern that happens very often.  But it is what I think is most likely as things stand.  I certainly expect more wintry weather before this is out and I would not be surprised if the cold sticks around until March.

In summary, cold and frosty, slowly getting less cold but then a potential new winter blast.

Snow Update - 3rd February 2011

I thought I would do you a quick update on the snow situation.

Around 4-5pm on Saturday afternoon it should start to snow - it may be a bit wet or sleety initially but it will come down and give a fair covering - perhaps not quite the 10cm I suggested in my previous forecast, but not far off.

I think the chance of the back end of the system being more rain or sleet rather than snow is now around 40%, an increase from yesterday which is the main reason I feel that the total amount of snow on the ground come Sunday morning will be lower, and also I feel that the front will clear the UK quicker than I previously expected and it should have stopped snowing/raining by 3am on Sunday morning.

Monday is still indecisive as there may be some rain showers to melt the snow - but equally it could be more wintry.

Then a reload of the cold with more snow potential during next week, as I suggested on yesterday's forecast.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 2nd February 2012

Well, I promised you that snow was on it's way and I have never seen anything like what is currently possible for Reading.

The cold block to the east is looking not so willing to give way but the Atlantic fronts with their associated rain are coming - and will turn to snow.

Where exactly gets the most snow and for how long for is still questionable so I will give it my best shot.  Don't even bother looking at the BBC website as they have nothing forecast for Reading - shocking.  And the Met Office typically underplay it.

You have been warned - this could end up with more snow than you have ever seen in England before next week is out (unless you are over 40 years old) - and it is certain to at least bring enough this weekend to cause much disruption.

Tonight will be clear, very cold with a severe frost, it is already below zero at 5pm and will possibly reach -8'C.
Friday will be cold and sunny, it might reach 1'C.  Again very cold with a severe frost overnight and down to around -8'C again.
Saturday will become increasingly cloudy during the day and snow will begin to fall around 6pm, give or take a couple of hours.  I am 90% confident of a heavy spell of snow, around 10cm in Reading.  Some areas may get more, some less.  There is a 10% chance that it may be sleet or wet snow at some point which would reduce the amount of snow on the ground.  2'C by day, -2'C by night.
Sunday will see the area of snow start to fizzle out, perhaps moving further east of Reading, but again perhaps staying over Reading to add another 5cm.  And a 10-20% chance of it turning to sleet/rain.  It is a little on a knife-edge.  1'C by day and down to around -3'C at night.
Monday is most likely to remain cloudy with some light bits of snow possible at times, 1'C by day and -2'C at night.

Tuesday brings the potential for another significant spell of snow but it is too far out to be certain.
Wednesday again has the potential for some light snow.
Thursday also has the potential for another significant spell of snow.

If these come off, and it is a big if, there could be amounts of up to 30-40cm.

Oh and afterwards it is most likely to remain cold and frosty for a week or so.

Confidence levels in my forecast are as follows:

Tonight, Friday and Saturday day - 100%
Saturday night - 90%
Sunday - 70%
Monday - 70%
Tuesday to Thursday - 40%

I will update if and when it changes because snow event forecasts for the UK are always marginal events.

But you will get a good dumping on Saturday night.

Have fun - I look forward to building snowmen!