Apologies for the lack of a forecast on Monday - this whole not working thing seems to mean that I am confusing my days. That and an inability to wake up before 2pm. I like the night-time anyway, exciting things happen. I won't be doing one tomorrow.
I did hint a couple of weeks ago that there may be a pleasant surprise in September. This is quite possibly due to Hurricane Irene and the tropical air that it sent up to the upper reaches, well middle reaches, of the Atlantic. It does seem as though a very welcome pattern change is upon us - I wonder if the average September temperature may be higher than August's?
The jetstream looks is projected to go north of the UK for a reasonable amount of time - this is good news if you like summer weather.
Thursday sees warmer air push up from France - there will still be a lot of cloud around so it won't be as warm as it could be, 21'C. But there will be some sunny interludes. And it will be dry.
Friday will be nicer, still far from wall to wall sunshine but there will be enough. And it might reach 25'C with a bit of luck.
Saturday sees a band of rain approaching from the west, but it is likely to stay dry with variable amounts of sunshine - 27'C is possible. It is also worth mentioning that we may import a thunderstorm from France later in the day or overnight, low chance say around 30% but the chance is there.
Sunday sees any rain clearing away to be followed by sunshine and some mostly light showers, much fresher at 21'C.
Monday will see a few hours of rain during the middle of the day, followed by showers, much cooler possibly only 16'C.
Tuesday should be much better, still a 60% chance of showers but more in the way of sunshine and a little warmer at 18'C.
Wednesday looks most likely to see some early rain, clearing away during the day and brightening up - and getting warmer at 21'C.
From then on, I am hopeful of more warmer weather with sunshine and it might even be dry for a while. Not totally confident yet but this looks the most likely option.
Enjoy the two hot days :-)
Wednesday, 31 August 2011
Friday, 26 August 2011
Hurricane Irene
This is how quick the hurricane can take effect, this video is in Puerto Rico, I admire her calmness.
Not only is this going to hit Florida and the Carolina's, it might also hit Washington and New York.
And affect the weather in the UK.
You will hear a lot about this hurricane.
Another video
Not only is this going to hit Florida and the Carolina's, it might also hit Washington and New York.
And affect the weather in the UK.
You will hear a lot about this hurricane.
Another video
Thursday, 25 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 25th August 2011
Forecasting the weather over the next couple of weeks is going to be even harder than usual - thanks to Hurricane Irene.
You will hear a lot about her, in the coming days and she will influence our weather. Or so I believe. Depending upon her track, we could either get lots of tropical air making it warm and humid, or we could end up with lots of wind and rain. With the jetstream forecast to be strong and in the direction of the UK, sadly the latter is most likely.
Anything could happen over the next 10 days, which is why the UK weather is so interesting.
First we have our own area of low pressure to deal with, which is actually more like 3 low pressures, one over Ireland, one over Scotland, and one over the north of France heading north.
So, tonight and tomorrow, at some point, will see torrential rain in some areas. I think Reading is likely to get hit tonight, maybe with some thunder, though the potential for more downpours is still there on Friday, especially in the morning. Some areas of the UK will have flooding.
Friday may end up drier towards the end, at around 18'C.
Saturday sees high pressure trying to build, but still plenty of potential for showers, which could be heavy - showers more likely in the early part of the day, 18'C at best.
Sunday sees a weak area of high pressure, plenty of cloud, some light showers around, 19'C.
Monday should be dry, with some sunshine, 20'C perhaps.
With all the uncertainty prior to this, I really cannot be sure of the following days, but my guess is as follows:
Tuesday, dry but cloudy, 18'C.
Wednesday, dry, some sunshine, 20'C.
Thursday is when we may start to see what affect Hurricane Irene is having upon our weather. It could turn out good, but equally, it might continue to be poor.
Keep a close eye on weather forecasts if you are depending on the weather as the expected torrential rainfall will arrive with just a few hours notice and nobody knows exactly where it will be.
Happy bank holiday!
You will hear a lot about her, in the coming days and she will influence our weather. Or so I believe. Depending upon her track, we could either get lots of tropical air making it warm and humid, or we could end up with lots of wind and rain. With the jetstream forecast to be strong and in the direction of the UK, sadly the latter is most likely.
Anything could happen over the next 10 days, which is why the UK weather is so interesting.
First we have our own area of low pressure to deal with, which is actually more like 3 low pressures, one over Ireland, one over Scotland, and one over the north of France heading north.
So, tonight and tomorrow, at some point, will see torrential rain in some areas. I think Reading is likely to get hit tonight, maybe with some thunder, though the potential for more downpours is still there on Friday, especially in the morning. Some areas of the UK will have flooding.
Friday may end up drier towards the end, at around 18'C.
Saturday sees high pressure trying to build, but still plenty of potential for showers, which could be heavy - showers more likely in the early part of the day, 18'C at best.
Sunday sees a weak area of high pressure, plenty of cloud, some light showers around, 19'C.
Monday should be dry, with some sunshine, 20'C perhaps.
With all the uncertainty prior to this, I really cannot be sure of the following days, but my guess is as follows:
Tuesday, dry but cloudy, 18'C.
Wednesday, dry, some sunshine, 20'C.
Thursday is when we may start to see what affect Hurricane Irene is having upon our weather. It could turn out good, but equally, it might continue to be poor.
Keep a close eye on weather forecasts if you are depending on the weather as the expected torrential rainfall will arrive with just a few hours notice and nobody knows exactly where it will be.
Happy bank holiday!
Wednesday, 24 August 2011
Extra Update Forecast - Wednesday 24th August 2011
As I mentioned on my Monday forecast, there is a band of showers for the end of today, and the amount of rain likely has been upgraded to a substantial amount, similar to last Thursday, so don't be surprised if there is some localised flooding in the morning.
The worst of the rain will clear fairly quickly.
Interestingly, I have just found out that the rainstorm of last Thursday had remnants of tropical storm Franklin in the weather system.
I have always believed that hurricanes have an effect on the UK weather, not always that directly, and I am tracking the projections of Hurricane Irene, which I think will bring a marked improvement to our weather in the beginning of September...but I am not sure on its lasting effects...damn you jetstream.
I will explain all in my Thursday forecast.
One other thing to mention is that if you are camping at a festival, take warm clothing, the nights have been chilly and may get down to something like 4'C during the latter part of the bank holiday weekend which really is quite cold.
If you need any more detail then my forecast issued on Monday should cover it.
The worst of the rain will clear fairly quickly.
Interestingly, I have just found out that the rainstorm of last Thursday had remnants of tropical storm Franklin in the weather system.
I have always believed that hurricanes have an effect on the UK weather, not always that directly, and I am tracking the projections of Hurricane Irene, which I think will bring a marked improvement to our weather in the beginning of September...but I am not sure on its lasting effects...damn you jetstream.
I will explain all in my Thursday forecast.
One other thing to mention is that if you are camping at a festival, take warm clothing, the nights have been chilly and may get down to something like 4'C during the latter part of the bank holiday weekend which really is quite cold.
If you need any more detail then my forecast issued on Monday should cover it.
Monday, 22 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 22nd August 2011
Were you one of the two readers of my weather forecast last week? If so, thank you.
The topsy-turvy summer continues. Two good days in Sunday and Monday but some less good days to follow now. I still remain hopeful for the bank holiday, but don't expect anything warmer than average. Maybe some sun, and maybe a dry day or two. Imperfect but it could be far worse.
Tonight will see heavy rain, possibly torrential with a rumble of thunder possible, any time from midnight through much of tomorrow. It will be showery in nature, with pulses coming from the south - get stuck under one and three hours of heavy, torrential rain is possible, but equally some places will mainly miss out and just get some light rain.
Tuesday, as I said will see this rain at times, getting less heavy during the day, the worst will be in the morning. The cloudiest areas with the heaviest of rain may not see anything higher than 13'C. Get some sunshine at any point then 18'C is possible.
Wednesday sees low pressure approaching from the west, but it should be sunny for most of the day in Reading and may reach 21'C. There will be a band of showers coming from the west, most likely in the evening, some could be heavy.
Thursday sees low pressure somewhere close to Ireland, so lots of showers in bands. The driest sunniest places may reach 20'C, those with regular showers 17'C. You will be lucky to stay dry all day.
Friday sees the low pressure slap bang over the UK, just in time for the weekend! Lots of heavy showers, possibly torrential, thunder possible, and some longer periods of rain also. One or two places may be lucky and stay dry.
Saturday sees the low pressure pulling away, there will be showers still but a few less. Some places may stay dry but still 80% chance of a shower or two. 19'C in any sunshine.
Sunday sees high pressure building, at last! Expect some sunshine, some clouds, 20% chance of a shower which should be fairly light now, 21'C is possible.
Monday, sunny, some clouds, 10% chance of a light shower, 21'C again possible. Rather pleasant, Ibiza preparation weather I feel.
From then on I think high pressure will be close to the UK bringing higher chances of sunny dry weather. Cooler than average perhaps at first but maybe warming up. Sadly all the hot weather has gone east to Russia, like last year, and the sun is not so strong now so if it is going to warm up, it will take a while. Sunny and average will do me though.
The jetstream looks like taking a path up north for a while, with much lower air pressure over Greenland, this might continue. Fingers need to be crossed.
The topsy-turvy summer continues. Two good days in Sunday and Monday but some less good days to follow now. I still remain hopeful for the bank holiday, but don't expect anything warmer than average. Maybe some sun, and maybe a dry day or two. Imperfect but it could be far worse.
Tonight will see heavy rain, possibly torrential with a rumble of thunder possible, any time from midnight through much of tomorrow. It will be showery in nature, with pulses coming from the south - get stuck under one and three hours of heavy, torrential rain is possible, but equally some places will mainly miss out and just get some light rain.
Tuesday, as I said will see this rain at times, getting less heavy during the day, the worst will be in the morning. The cloudiest areas with the heaviest of rain may not see anything higher than 13'C. Get some sunshine at any point then 18'C is possible.
Wednesday sees low pressure approaching from the west, but it should be sunny for most of the day in Reading and may reach 21'C. There will be a band of showers coming from the west, most likely in the evening, some could be heavy.
Thursday sees low pressure somewhere close to Ireland, so lots of showers in bands. The driest sunniest places may reach 20'C, those with regular showers 17'C. You will be lucky to stay dry all day.
Friday sees the low pressure slap bang over the UK, just in time for the weekend! Lots of heavy showers, possibly torrential, thunder possible, and some longer periods of rain also. One or two places may be lucky and stay dry.
Saturday sees the low pressure pulling away, there will be showers still but a few less. Some places may stay dry but still 80% chance of a shower or two. 19'C in any sunshine.
Sunday sees high pressure building, at last! Expect some sunshine, some clouds, 20% chance of a shower which should be fairly light now, 21'C is possible.
Monday, sunny, some clouds, 10% chance of a light shower, 21'C again possible. Rather pleasant, Ibiza preparation weather I feel.
From then on I think high pressure will be close to the UK bringing higher chances of sunny dry weather. Cooler than average perhaps at first but maybe warming up. Sadly all the hot weather has gone east to Russia, like last year, and the sun is not so strong now so if it is going to warm up, it will take a while. Sunny and average will do me though.
The jetstream looks like taking a path up north for a while, with much lower air pressure over Greenland, this might continue. Fingers need to be crossed.
Thursday, 18 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 18th August 2011
We are clearly going into a new period of uncertainty.
The Atlantic is brewing storms once more, the jet-stream looking to be active and intense at times, and in the direction of the UK, before splitting partly to the south, and to the north. It is this kind of pattern that gave rise to the severe heat in Russia in 2010, and the flooding in heavy monsoon rains in India and Pakistan.
Coupled with this is hot air trying to push in from the south, and an unusual amount of cold air for this time of year to our north - we have a very uncertain outlook.
I am still learning, and in the future, I will try to make more regular forecasts for when the weather is volatile, like it is now.
I take a lot of pride in my weather forecasts, and I admit the last two have been poor. They haven't been totally out of context and I did suggest that there could be a downpour today, but I do need to up my game. I always appreciate any feedback that you can give, to help me make better forecasts in the future.
So, as we stand, there is heat and humidity pushing up from the south, but low pressure barrelling towards the UK to our north-west. There will be periods of hot sunshine but the difficulty is the timing.
Friday will start cold, you may need a jacket, but it should turn out to be a fairly sunny day as high pressure builds and it may reach 21'C perhaps. It was only 10.4'C at lunch today.
Saturday sees the next area of low pressure building to the west, it should stay dry and will feel warm and humid, 23'C, maybe a little higher. There is a risk of overnight downpours.
Sunday is a ridiculously difficult day to forecast right now, hence I will try to provide another forecast on Friday/Saturday. If sunny, then 28'C. But more likely it will be cloudy and hot, and at some point there will probably be more downpours, and the potential for flooding.
Monday I also see as hot and cloudy, with more torrential rain at times possible, and again, more flooding possible.
Tuesday, the worst of it should clear to the east gradually. Still very warm, 23'C, possibly more, possibly less.
We may get a couple of dry and warm days after that.
Bank holiday I am not sure, I currently favour dry weather holding on in the south but with low pressure to the north-west, who knows, it may end up raining down here too.
Apologies for the uncertainty, but that it the English weather after all. The Met Office didn't issue any warnings on their website for heavy rain in the south or south-east of England that I saw, so it wasn't just me...in fact I did say that there was a chance on Monday! I just wish I had looked last night...
I will try to update regularly throughout the weekend.
The Atlantic is brewing storms once more, the jet-stream looking to be active and intense at times, and in the direction of the UK, before splitting partly to the south, and to the north. It is this kind of pattern that gave rise to the severe heat in Russia in 2010, and the flooding in heavy monsoon rains in India and Pakistan.
Coupled with this is hot air trying to push in from the south, and an unusual amount of cold air for this time of year to our north - we have a very uncertain outlook.
I am still learning, and in the future, I will try to make more regular forecasts for when the weather is volatile, like it is now.
I take a lot of pride in my weather forecasts, and I admit the last two have been poor. They haven't been totally out of context and I did suggest that there could be a downpour today, but I do need to up my game. I always appreciate any feedback that you can give, to help me make better forecasts in the future.
So, as we stand, there is heat and humidity pushing up from the south, but low pressure barrelling towards the UK to our north-west. There will be periods of hot sunshine but the difficulty is the timing.
Friday will start cold, you may need a jacket, but it should turn out to be a fairly sunny day as high pressure builds and it may reach 21'C perhaps. It was only 10.4'C at lunch today.
Saturday sees the next area of low pressure building to the west, it should stay dry and will feel warm and humid, 23'C, maybe a little higher. There is a risk of overnight downpours.
Sunday is a ridiculously difficult day to forecast right now, hence I will try to provide another forecast on Friday/Saturday. If sunny, then 28'C. But more likely it will be cloudy and hot, and at some point there will probably be more downpours, and the potential for flooding.
Monday I also see as hot and cloudy, with more torrential rain at times possible, and again, more flooding possible.
Tuesday, the worst of it should clear to the east gradually. Still very warm, 23'C, possibly more, possibly less.
We may get a couple of dry and warm days after that.
Bank holiday I am not sure, I currently favour dry weather holding on in the south but with low pressure to the north-west, who knows, it may end up raining down here too.
Apologies for the uncertainty, but that it the English weather after all. The Met Office didn't issue any warnings on their website for heavy rain in the south or south-east of England that I saw, so it wasn't just me...in fact I did say that there was a chance on Monday! I just wish I had looked last night...
I will try to update regularly throughout the weekend.
Reading Flooding
I took my eye off the ball, and look what happened...flooding...typical. Though I did on Monday warn of the potential for a downpour, I didn't at the time expect it to be so severe.
So far the best reports I can find are this video of the bridge near the train station earlier.
If anyone has anything to add, let me know, I will be happy to.
I will do a proper forecast later, and the weekend isn't looking as good as I had hoped in terms of heat or sunshine...but there should be something.
***
Bournemouth got it worse, not sure if they had more rain in total than Reading but something similar I expect, it just came down in a much shorter space of time in Bournemouth than it did in Reading. The figures will no doubt show later...but the pictures are quite something. Thanks to Sophie for putting me onto this.
***
Be prepared for a repeat on Monday or Tuesday. I will give more details later.
So far the best reports I can find are this video of the bridge near the train station earlier.
If anyone has anything to add, let me know, I will be happy to.
I will do a proper forecast later, and the weekend isn't looking as good as I had hoped in terms of heat or sunshine...but there should be something.
***
Bournemouth got it worse, not sure if they had more rain in total than Reading but something similar I expect, it just came down in a much shorter space of time in Bournemouth than it did in Reading. The figures will no doubt show later...but the pictures are quite something. Thanks to Sophie for putting me onto this.
***
Be prepared for a repeat on Monday or Tuesday. I will give more details later.
Monday, 15 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 15th August 2011
Firstly, apologies for the last forecast, it wasn't my best, I was feeling a little bit aggravated and couldn't concentrate on it properly - I think I got the general idea right but I said that Monday's rain would arrive on Tuesday instead. Meh.
That it arrived on Monday will be a good thing, though.
Today's picture is again from my good friend Martin, I like these skies - they promise sunshine but suggest a storm could be a day or so away. It was taken on 1st August if I recall correctly. Sunshine and thunderstorms, I love it! If anyone wants me to feature one, please do send it to me.
Tuesday sees this little area of low pressure decaying over us, so plenty more cloud, perhaps some spots of rain, but with any sunshine it could reach 20'C. Without then just 17'C.
Wednesday sees a lot of nothingness, with the cloud from the decaying low still to burn off - remember that the sun ain't as strong in August as it is in June, so it isn't so easy, but pressure is rising to the south and south-west. Temperatures really will depend on sunshine amounts, anywhere from 20'C to 25'C possible, it really will be very localised weather.
Thursday will be a very similar day, plenty of cloud in many areas, but some places sunny, cloudy places will see some sun too I expect at 21'C, and the sunniest places could see 25'C. I don't rule out a late afternoon downpour, these will be rather localised again, and with little wind they will be slow to clear if you do get one.
Friday will be dry and sunny, low pressure is however approaching from the west. Depending on how quickly the cloud has burnt off during the week, temperatures up to 28'C are possible, though 24-25'C is most likely, and over quite a large area. This will be the best day of the week.
And Saturday, glorious Saturday...well...subject to variation, this low pressure to our north-west will be trying to push in rain to the UK, but will have a southerly flow ahead of it, so assuming it is sunny it could just reach 30'C in the south of England. ?
Any further from that will depend on what has happened before.
It is already looking better than I hoped, given that the rain I forecasted for Tuesday arrived today. It makes sense to me that rain arriving quicker is a good thing, anyway.
Sunday could be anything really, you could have an uncomfortably hot day around 32'C, or just hot 28'C with a big ass thunderstorm perhaps overnight. Or maybe I am wrong with everything before and it is 20'C, cloudy and wet (but this is the least likely outcome in my eyes...but it is a possible outcome so I have to mention it).
I remain hopeful of a spell of settled weather later in August, or during September, warm and sunny kind of settled.
By the way, as I write now, the Met Office website agree with me for lots of sunshine on Friday, but only 21'C. I say up to 28'C.
Oh and I think the bank holiday weekend will be good by the way, either hot with thunderstorms, or very warm and sunny.
That it arrived on Monday will be a good thing, though.
Today's picture is again from my good friend Martin, I like these skies - they promise sunshine but suggest a storm could be a day or so away. It was taken on 1st August if I recall correctly. Sunshine and thunderstorms, I love it! If anyone wants me to feature one, please do send it to me.
Tuesday sees this little area of low pressure decaying over us, so plenty more cloud, perhaps some spots of rain, but with any sunshine it could reach 20'C. Without then just 17'C.
Wednesday sees a lot of nothingness, with the cloud from the decaying low still to burn off - remember that the sun ain't as strong in August as it is in June, so it isn't so easy, but pressure is rising to the south and south-west. Temperatures really will depend on sunshine amounts, anywhere from 20'C to 25'C possible, it really will be very localised weather.
Thursday will be a very similar day, plenty of cloud in many areas, but some places sunny, cloudy places will see some sun too I expect at 21'C, and the sunniest places could see 25'C. I don't rule out a late afternoon downpour, these will be rather localised again, and with little wind they will be slow to clear if you do get one.
Friday will be dry and sunny, low pressure is however approaching from the west. Depending on how quickly the cloud has burnt off during the week, temperatures up to 28'C are possible, though 24-25'C is most likely, and over quite a large area. This will be the best day of the week.
And Saturday, glorious Saturday...well...subject to variation, this low pressure to our north-west will be trying to push in rain to the UK, but will have a southerly flow ahead of it, so assuming it is sunny it could just reach 30'C in the south of England. ?
Any further from that will depend on what has happened before.
It is already looking better than I hoped, given that the rain I forecasted for Tuesday arrived today. It makes sense to me that rain arriving quicker is a good thing, anyway.
Sunday could be anything really, you could have an uncomfortably hot day around 32'C, or just hot 28'C with a big ass thunderstorm perhaps overnight. Or maybe I am wrong with everything before and it is 20'C, cloudy and wet (but this is the least likely outcome in my eyes...but it is a possible outcome so I have to mention it).
I remain hopeful of a spell of settled weather later in August, or during September, warm and sunny kind of settled.
By the way, as I write now, the Met Office website agree with me for lots of sunshine on Friday, but only 21'C. I say up to 28'C.
Oh and I think the bank holiday weekend will be good by the way, either hot with thunderstorms, or very warm and sunny.
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 11th August 2011
Not really in the mood tonight due to circumstances and human beings, so no attempted humour, no photos and hopefully lots of rain.
Friday will be pretty cloudy as low pressure approaches from the west, but with the odd sunny break it may reach 23'C. Humid too, also some showery bits of mainly light rain possible.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy, some bits of light rain possible, drier later, less warm and humid, 20'C.
Sunday looks like to give some brightness, there is a 40% chance of an hour or two of heavy rain around the early afternoon, but it may miss Reading and stay to the south, 21'C.
Monday sees fresher air and high pressure building, so it should be sunny, dry and 19'C, just a few clouds.
Tuesday looks like clouding over, with a band of rain approaching, it may not quite reach as south as Reading but on current expectations, it will during the afternoon, 18'C.
Wednesday, any early light rain will soon clear to leave sunny spells, 18'C, not especially warm in a cool breeze.
That'll have to do, cannot be arsed to do any more.
If you want further ahead then use Metcheck. I saw a forecast of 300mph winds for the UK the other day.
Or just wait until I am in a better mood on Monday!
Friday will be pretty cloudy as low pressure approaches from the west, but with the odd sunny break it may reach 23'C. Humid too, also some showery bits of mainly light rain possible.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy, some bits of light rain possible, drier later, less warm and humid, 20'C.
Sunday looks like to give some brightness, there is a 40% chance of an hour or two of heavy rain around the early afternoon, but it may miss Reading and stay to the south, 21'C.
Monday sees fresher air and high pressure building, so it should be sunny, dry and 19'C, just a few clouds.
Tuesday looks like clouding over, with a band of rain approaching, it may not quite reach as south as Reading but on current expectations, it will during the afternoon, 18'C.
Wednesday, any early light rain will soon clear to leave sunny spells, 18'C, not especially warm in a cool breeze.
That'll have to do, cannot be arsed to do any more.
If you want further ahead then use Metcheck. I saw a forecast of 300mph winds for the UK the other day.
Or just wait until I am in a better mood on Monday!
Monday, 8 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 8th August 2011
Today was a crap day at work. This is going to be a crap weather forecast. Not necessarily because of crap weather, but the amount of uncertainty. The most difficult forecast for some time.
Today's weather picture comes courtesy of me. And thanks to that rather excellent thundery downpour yesterday in Reading.
In summary, this week will often be cloudy with a noticeable westerly wind, but warm and humid at times too. The questionable part is how much rain and when, and how much sun and when. Enough sunshine and 26'C is possible (this last word being very much operational).
Tuesday will be sunny and dry, some cloud, not especially warm at 19'C.
Wednesday sees warmer air push in, but with an increasing westerly wind, much more cloud and it may be thick enough for some light rain later in the day, 22'C in any sunshine.
Thursday remains mainly cloudy, some patchy rain possible at any time of the day, but quite warm and humid up to 22'C.
Friday might see something in the way of sunshine and if it does then 25'C is possible. Equally it could be could with some patchy rain and 21'C.
I don't especially want to pick an outcome for the weekend, but I guess I have to given my proclaimed weather forecasting 'abilities'.
I ain't especially confident yet but for Saturday I favour sunshine and 25'C but clouding over with rain in the evening or overnight, potentially heavy. Don't be surprised if it rains during the day instead.
Sunday I favour some sunshine, 19'C. Similar to the Tuesday (9th).
From then on I remain hopeful of at least a few days of high pressure and sunshine. At least until the weekend, of course!
Today's weather picture comes courtesy of me. And thanks to that rather excellent thundery downpour yesterday in Reading.
In summary, this week will often be cloudy with a noticeable westerly wind, but warm and humid at times too. The questionable part is how much rain and when, and how much sun and when. Enough sunshine and 26'C is possible (this last word being very much operational).
Tuesday will be sunny and dry, some cloud, not especially warm at 19'C.
Wednesday sees warmer air push in, but with an increasing westerly wind, much more cloud and it may be thick enough for some light rain later in the day, 22'C in any sunshine.
Thursday remains mainly cloudy, some patchy rain possible at any time of the day, but quite warm and humid up to 22'C.
Friday might see something in the way of sunshine and if it does then 25'C is possible. Equally it could be could with some patchy rain and 21'C.
I don't especially want to pick an outcome for the weekend, but I guess I have to given my proclaimed weather forecasting 'abilities'.
I ain't especially confident yet but for Saturday I favour sunshine and 25'C but clouding over with rain in the evening or overnight, potentially heavy. Don't be surprised if it rains during the day instead.
Sunday I favour some sunshine, 19'C. Similar to the Tuesday (9th).
From then on I remain hopeful of at least a few days of high pressure and sunshine. At least until the weekend, of course!
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 4th August 2011
I reckon I know the question that you want me to answer...is summer over?
The answer is no. Just a short blip, nicely timed for the weekend. I ain't promising more hot weather but the potential is still there.
Expect to see more clouds like this over the weekend - this is my photo. Please, if you want me to feature a weather photo of yours, I would be delighted to.
Friday will actually be pretty decent, some spells of sunshine, but cloud too, a warm 23'C could be reached, with a small chance of a light shower.
Saturday will be cloudier, though the sun may show its face at times, a higher chance of a shower or two at 60%. 20'C with a bit of sunshine.
Sunday sees low pressure over the south-west of the UK, plenty of showers, you will be lucky to stay dry - but it is possible. 19'C.
Monday sees the low pressure move into the North Sea but bringing a northerly wind with it with bands of showers, very lucky if you stay dry all day, 20'C in the sunshine, and there will be some.
Tuesday sees high pressure building from the west but only 19'C due to the slightly cool air, sunshine with a 30% chance of a light shower.
Wednesday sees high pressure in charge, dry sunny, and a little warmer at 21'C.
Thursday may be cloudier, if so 20'C, but with some sunshine it could rise to 23'C.
Next weekend is still uncertain, though I fancy 25'C with a chance of thunderstorms. Of course I fancy that as they are my favourite weather conditions. But I think it might happen.
Rest of August - generally dry, some 3 day breakdowns of unsettled weather at times, but plenty of dry weather, sometimes below average temperatures around 19'C but rising to above average, around 25'C a few days after. Then back to showers, followed by cool and dry then warm and dry...and repeat.
The answer is no. Just a short blip, nicely timed for the weekend. I ain't promising more hot weather but the potential is still there.
Expect to see more clouds like this over the weekend - this is my photo. Please, if you want me to feature a weather photo of yours, I would be delighted to.
Friday will actually be pretty decent, some spells of sunshine, but cloud too, a warm 23'C could be reached, with a small chance of a light shower.
Saturday will be cloudier, though the sun may show its face at times, a higher chance of a shower or two at 60%. 20'C with a bit of sunshine.
Sunday sees low pressure over the south-west of the UK, plenty of showers, you will be lucky to stay dry - but it is possible. 19'C.
Monday sees the low pressure move into the North Sea but bringing a northerly wind with it with bands of showers, very lucky if you stay dry all day, 20'C in the sunshine, and there will be some.
Tuesday sees high pressure building from the west but only 19'C due to the slightly cool air, sunshine with a 30% chance of a light shower.
Wednesday sees high pressure in charge, dry sunny, and a little warmer at 21'C.
Thursday may be cloudier, if so 20'C, but with some sunshine it could rise to 23'C.
Next weekend is still uncertain, though I fancy 25'C with a chance of thunderstorms. Of course I fancy that as they are my favourite weather conditions. But I think it might happen.
Rest of August - generally dry, some 3 day breakdowns of unsettled weather at times, but plenty of dry weather, sometimes below average temperatures around 19'C but rising to above average, around 25'C a few days after. Then back to showers, followed by cool and dry then warm and dry...and repeat.
Wednesday, 3 August 2011
Crazy Barcelona Storm
This is what they had in Barcelona at the end of July - quite impressive. I hear winds touched 70mph and there was a huge amount of rain.
Videos describe it well.
Storm Approaching
A River???
My favourite - Horizontal Rain
Moral of the story - go to Hull for holidays?
Videos describe it well.
Storm Approaching
A River???
My favourite - Horizontal Rain
Moral of the story - go to Hull for holidays?
Extra Updated Weather Forecast - Wednesday 3rd August 2011
My sister has requested a weather forecast especially for this weekend as she is going to a festival in Derby. She wasn't happy with the last one where I forecasted rain and showers and below average temperatures.
The last festival that she went to was the Isle Of Wight festival and it poured down.
So, for anyone else reading, if you are planning on a festival trip, check with my sister first to make sure she is not going to a festival that weekend, if you want to avoid a soaking.
And for my sister...well perhaps slightly less bad than my last forecast, the worst of the rain will likely be Monday rather than Saturday...
Friday will be quite decent, there will be plenty of cloud around with a small chance of a light shower developing, 22'C in Reading, 20'C in Derby.
Saturday and the first low pressure I expected will go over France instead, so there will be some sunshine, but plenty of cloud too, and some showers around, 60% chance of one. Showers being showers, remember you could stay dry all day or get 5 showers. 21'C both locations. Maybe some early rain in Derby too.
Sunday sees the low pressure much closer, so more showers and some of these will be heavy and prolonged, increasingly so as the day goes on. 85% chance in Derby, 95% in Reading, 19'C.
Monday has the low pressure over England, so showers or longer outbreaks of rain, very little sunshine, some of the rain could be heavy especially later in the day, 18'C.
Details still subject to slight alterations with regards to timings.
The last festival that she went to was the Isle Of Wight festival and it poured down.
So, for anyone else reading, if you are planning on a festival trip, check with my sister first to make sure she is not going to a festival that weekend, if you want to avoid a soaking.
And for my sister...well perhaps slightly less bad than my last forecast, the worst of the rain will likely be Monday rather than Saturday...
Friday will be quite decent, there will be plenty of cloud around with a small chance of a light shower developing, 22'C in Reading, 20'C in Derby.
Saturday and the first low pressure I expected will go over France instead, so there will be some sunshine, but plenty of cloud too, and some showers around, 60% chance of one. Showers being showers, remember you could stay dry all day or get 5 showers. 21'C both locations. Maybe some early rain in Derby too.
Sunday sees the low pressure much closer, so more showers and some of these will be heavy and prolonged, increasingly so as the day goes on. 85% chance in Derby, 95% in Reading, 19'C.
Monday has the low pressure over England, so showers or longer outbreaks of rain, very little sunshine, some of the rain could be heavy especially later in the day, 18'C.
Details still subject to slight alterations with regards to timings.
Tuesday, 2 August 2011
A Crazy Winter Weather Forecast
I have just come across this guy and his forecast for winter 2011-2012. I have seen him doubted just because he is a truck driver by profession. I shall bear his forecast in mind, as his forecast for summer was fairly accurate though he did just give general synoptics rather than break it down into months or periods, which is much harder - anyone can say "there will be periods of warm weather for 3-5 days and some unsettled weather".
I am expecting a cold winter, probably very cold at times, but nothing quite like this forecast, which is as severe as it could really get in the UK, without an ice age.
********************
Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe Winter Forecast 2011-2012
This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK
'The 2011-12 may be one of worst overall UK winters in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'
HIGHLIGHTS
Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh Winter
I believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.
This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.
The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January. Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.
It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.
As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland. Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January.
Thanks for reading.-Mark
*****************************
Quite a brave call.
I am expecting a cold winter, probably very cold at times, but nothing quite like this forecast, which is as severe as it could really get in the UK, without an ice age.
********************
Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe Winter Forecast 2011-2012
This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK
'The 2011-12 may be one of worst overall UK winters in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'
HIGHLIGHTS
- Extreme Cold Will Be a Regular Visitor with Low Temps of between -16 to -24C possible from Scotland's far north to the Suburbs of London
- Another White Christmas is possible for most of the UK, most likely over Scotland
- Cold and Snow to Arrive to much of UK by December 15th and may last throughout January
Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh Winter
I believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.
This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.
The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January. Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.
It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.
As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland. Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January.
Thanks for reading.-Mark
*****************************
Quite a brave call.
Monday, 1 August 2011
Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 1st August 2011
We reached somewhere around 27'C in sunny Reading today. It looked something like this:
Thanks to Martin Sandford for this photo, who does some excellent photography with 2squareimage.com.
If anyone would like me to feature a photo that they have taken of the weather, I would be delighted to show it on future forecasts. Please e-mail it to me.
There should be more of this to come during the week though the clouds will bubble up more. And the weekend will be crap. Sorry.
Tuesday will be sunny again, but there will be some cloud at times, and it may bubble up enough for a shower later in the day, but only 10% chance. Hot, around 26'C. Accuracy - all good though a few more showers around and 26.9'C. 85% happy with forecast.
Wednesday will again feature plenty of sunshine, but also some cloud which may once again bubble into a shower, probably nothing too heavy in the Reading area, hot again at around 26'C - a little less if you catch a shower.
Thursday will see an area of low pressure over the north of the UK develop, there will be showers around, I'd say a 50% chance of catching one in Reading, but there should also be some warm sunshine and it should reach 23'C.
Friday will most likely be fair, and sunny but much fresher at 19'C. Just a tiny chance of a light shower.
Saturday looks like seeing a deep area of low pressure (for the time of year anyway) move in from the Atlantic, bringing outbreaks of rain which could be quite heavy, 17'C. Potentially quite windy. The exact track of the low pressure isn't nailed on, so the details could change slightly. But it will rain.
Sunday will be cool and windy, with an 80% chance of blustery showers which could be heavy - the wind fetch is all the way from the Arctic. Lovely.
Monday will see less wind and less showers, with some sunshine and maybe 19'C.
I am hopeful for high pressure developing next week - and it may even be hot for the weekend after. I stress that it might be!
I will get around to an autumn weather forecast soon.
Thanks to Martin Sandford for this photo, who does some excellent photography with 2squareimage.com.
If anyone would like me to feature a photo that they have taken of the weather, I would be delighted to show it on future forecasts. Please e-mail it to me.
There should be more of this to come during the week though the clouds will bubble up more. And the weekend will be crap. Sorry.
Tuesday will be sunny again, but there will be some cloud at times, and it may bubble up enough for a shower later in the day, but only 10% chance. Hot, around 26'C. Accuracy - all good though a few more showers around and 26.9'C. 85% happy with forecast.
Wednesday will again feature plenty of sunshine, but also some cloud which may once again bubble into a shower, probably nothing too heavy in the Reading area, hot again at around 26'C - a little less if you catch a shower.
Thursday will see an area of low pressure over the north of the UK develop, there will be showers around, I'd say a 50% chance of catching one in Reading, but there should also be some warm sunshine and it should reach 23'C.
Friday will most likely be fair, and sunny but much fresher at 19'C. Just a tiny chance of a light shower.
Saturday looks like seeing a deep area of low pressure (for the time of year anyway) move in from the Atlantic, bringing outbreaks of rain which could be quite heavy, 17'C. Potentially quite windy. The exact track of the low pressure isn't nailed on, so the details could change slightly. But it will rain.
Sunday will be cool and windy, with an 80% chance of blustery showers which could be heavy - the wind fetch is all the way from the Arctic. Lovely.
Monday will see less wind and less showers, with some sunshine and maybe 19'C.
I am hopeful for high pressure developing next week - and it may even be hot for the weekend after. I stress that it might be!
I will get around to an autumn weather forecast soon.
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