We are clearly going into a new period of uncertainty.
The Atlantic is brewing storms once more, the jet-stream looking to be active and intense at times, and in the direction of the UK, before splitting partly to the south, and to the north. It is this kind of pattern that gave rise to the severe heat in Russia in 2010, and the flooding in heavy monsoon rains in India and Pakistan.
Coupled with this is hot air trying to push in from the south, and an unusual amount of cold air for this time of year to our north - we have a very uncertain outlook.
I am still learning, and in the future, I will try to make more regular forecasts for when the weather is volatile, like it is now.
I take a lot of pride in my weather forecasts, and I admit the last two have been poor. They haven't been totally out of context and I did suggest that there could be a downpour today, but I do need to up my game. I always appreciate any feedback that you can give, to help me make better forecasts in the future.
So, as we stand, there is heat and humidity pushing up from the south, but low pressure barrelling towards the UK to our north-west. There will be periods of hot sunshine but the difficulty is the timing.
Friday will start cold, you may need a jacket, but it should turn out to be a fairly sunny day as high pressure builds and it may reach 21'C perhaps. It was only 10.4'C at lunch today.
Saturday sees the next area of low pressure building to the west, it should stay dry and will feel warm and humid, 23'C, maybe a little higher. There is a risk of overnight downpours.
Sunday is a ridiculously difficult day to forecast right now, hence I will try to provide another forecast on Friday/Saturday. If sunny, then 28'C. But more likely it will be cloudy and hot, and at some point there will probably be more downpours, and the potential for flooding.
Monday I also see as hot and cloudy, with more torrential rain at times possible, and again, more flooding possible.
Tuesday, the worst of it should clear to the east gradually. Still very warm, 23'C, possibly more, possibly less.
We may get a couple of dry and warm days after that.
Bank holiday I am not sure, I currently favour dry weather holding on in the south but with low pressure to the north-west, who knows, it may end up raining down here too.
Apologies for the uncertainty, but that it the English weather after all. The Met Office didn't issue any warnings on their website for heavy rain in the south or south-east of England that I saw, so it wasn't just me...in fact I did say that there was a chance on Monday! I just wish I had looked last night...
I will try to update regularly throughout the weekend.
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