A Crazy Winter Weather Forecast

I have just come across this guy and his forecast for winter 2011-2012.  I have seen him doubted just because he is a truck driver by profession.  I shall bear his forecast in mind, as his forecast for summer was fairly accurate though he did just give general synoptics rather than break it down into months or periods, which is much harder - anyone can say "there will be periods of warm weather for 3-5 days and some unsettled weather".

I am expecting a cold winter, probably very cold at times, but nothing quite like this forecast, which is as severe as it could really get in the UK, without an ice age.

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Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe Winter Forecast 2011-2012

This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK

'The 2011-12 may be one of worst overall UK winters in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'
HIGHLIGHTS

• Extreme Cold Will Be a Regular Visitor with Low Temps of between -16 to -24C possible from Scotland's far north to the Suburbs of London

• Another White Christmas is possible for most of the UK, most likely over Scotland

• Cold and Snow to Arrive to much of UK by December 15th and may last throughout January

I have real concerns about what winter may bring to us across the UK in 2011-12. Low solar activity is continuing to force me into the thinking of harsh winter weather for us and although winter arrived early during 2010-11, don't be fooled when winter doesn't arrive by December 1st.

Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh Winter

I believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.

This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.

The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January. Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.

It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.

As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland. Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January.
Thanks for reading.-Mark


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Quite a brave call.