This week looks very interesting. We may go from having a frost to baking hot sunshine in just a few days, all because of how the air masses are circulating. One assumes that at some point these contrasting air masses are going to produce some serious downpours of rain, perhaps some cracking thunderstorms, and maybe even something more spectacular. But whether it happens in the UK, or somewhere else over the near continent, is still up for discussion.
I am truly looking forward to a very enjoyable couple of month's weather, from a meteorologists point of view.
Tuesday will see the cold air becoming entrenched, temporarily, across the UK, so whilst it will be fine and sunny, with some clouds, it is going to feel cold at 14'C. Which is actually only slightly below average for this time of year. And overnight there could be a frost - yes - your car windscreen might need scraping.
Wednesday will have subtle changes, the area of low pressure that I mentioned in my previous forecast is not making as much progress towards the UK as I originally expected, so it will sit out in the Atlantic, and the wind will now start to come from the south - yes, the warmest possible direction. But we have a lot of cold air over us so it will take its time to have an impact. Expect sunshine, and hope for 17'C.
Thursday I think will see more cloud being imported, but after a chilly start, more warmth, despite less sunshine than the day before, 19'C - 21'C if it is sunnier than I currently expect.
Friday should be pretty damn excellent, still some cloud around, but temperatures of 21'C, possibly 23'C in some areas. A very small chance, say 5% of a shower very late on.
Saturday sees the southerly flow of air quite nicely, but also the low pressure to the west finally starting to come in. So my confidence on my forecast is diminishing rapidly now. The most likely outcome is sunshine but plenty of cloud at times, 24'C with a shower later. I would not be surprised to see 27'C instead, and some torrential thunderstorms to finish with. Or 17'C with cloud and rain.
Sunday I expect this warmth to be pushed away, with rain. It could be heavy, some places might get an absolute soaking - others very little. 22'C is the most likely temperature but this could vary quite a bit either way, depending on what has gone before.
That area of low pressure looks set to influence our weather, one way or another, for much of the month. I would not be surprised if it ended up sat over the UK for several days bringing a shitload of rain and some localised flooding. But that is 7-10 days away, maybe more. Perhaps 18th May is a day to note down for potential significant downpours.
Any questions, you know where to find me :-)
No comments:
Post a Comment