Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 29th December 2011

The mild winter is set to continue.  Which I don't mind in some ways as it saves me money on heating bills, however it causing me concern for my expectation of cold, snowy weather from mid-January onwards - I don't see how this forecast can come true.  But I ain't changing it yet.

I had to steal this picture from the BBC's website, of these most wonderful Lenticular clouds - not a formation I have ever seen myself.  I met Paul Hudson when I was a teenager (who wrote wrote the page) so I reckon he won't mind me doing so especially if I point you to his web page, he is a rare specimen - a BBC forecaster that I respect...though not for the whole climate change bullshit.

There are some more photos here, and number 6 in the slide show is even better than this one.

I cannot believe I am promoting people to look at a weather related subject on the BBC...whatever next?

Some weather.

Tonight will see any showers clear away, the chilly breeze will continue but temperatures should fall no lower than 4'C.
Friday may start bright but wind and rain is on the way for the afternoon and into the evening - several hours of rain, with showers following overnight.  6'C by day, but a mild 11'C overnight.
New Year's Eve will remain windy, and cloudy, with some light showers.  More rain overnight but it should stay away until after midnight.  Up to 14'C by day, 11'C by night - very mild.
New Year's Day will also be windy, mostly cloudy, some light showers quite likely.  11'C by day, down to 2'C overnight.
Monday will again be windy, but reasonably sunny, cooler at 6'C by day.  Quite a deep area of low pressure is heading for Scotland in the evening, and even here in sunny Reading there will likely be gales, and some bits of rain overnight.
Tuesday will see rain in the morning, still windy, brighter in the afternoon with some sunshine, 10'C by day, 3'C by night.
Wednesday still breezy but dry in a ridge of high pressure, a fair amount of cloud, 7'C by day, 5'C by night.

There after, it looks like the jetstream might judge go north of the UK, allowing a period of more settled weather, and decreasing further the chance of any snow.

Enjoy your new year's celebrations and I look forward to more inspiring weather forecasts in 2012.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 27th December 2011

It being Christmas, it is unlikely many will read so I will keep the forecast brief.

Tonight will remain mild, no lower than 8'C.
Wednesday will see early bits and pieces of rain clearing during the morning, with brighter skies following, 9'C by day, 3'C by night.
Thursday will be fairly cloudy, some light showers possibly in a cooler breeze, 7'C by day, 3'C by night.
Friday will be bright to start but clouding over later with rain during the evening and overnight, which could be quite heavy at times, 6'C by day, but warming to 10'C in the rain overnight.
New Year's Eve will be cloudy, with bits of showery rain at times, breezy and mild, at around 13'C, and that is the same for the night too.
New Year's Day may start bright but wind and rain will arrive during the day, and this low pressure could be quite a feature, it may develop into something reasonably notable.

And yes, more wind and rain to follow, there is no end in sight.

The cold part of winter will keep us waiting longer.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 23rd December 2011

Apologies that I didn't do my updated weather forecast yesterday as usual, I was still researching when my pint of gravy was ready and I feel asleep straight after.

The reason for so much research was trying to find signs of high pressure building either to the north of the UK or over Scandinavia, which is what the second half of my winter forecast depends on, and is still eluding me.

Not to worry though.  There is increasing signs of high pressure over the UK at times, and I still expect this to transpose itself over Scandinavia at some point, splitting the jet stream to the north and south of the UK (it still looks too strong at the moment), or just to the south of the UK, bringing a fetch of cold air from Europe with snow from time to time.

I never expected this to happen in December, and due to La Nina, albeit a weak affair, I do not now expect it until the middle of January, maybe not even until after my birthday on 22nd January.  It never snows on my birthday.

So until then, more mildness at times, with the odd brief cold interval - and I did say December would be unusually mild, though it has been only slightly milder than average so far.

Friday will see heavy rain this afternoon, clearing during the evening with a slight frost possible by dawn, 11'C during the day, 1'C overnight in clear skies.
Christmas Eve will start bright but there will be patchy cloud in the afternoon, with the odd spot of light rain in the breeze later possible, 6'C both day and night.
Christmas Day will be mostly cloudy, some bits of brightness, mild at 10'C by day, 6'C overnight.
Boxing Day will be somewhat sunnier, and still mild around 10'C, down to 4'C overnight.
Tuesday should again be fairly sunny, though with low pressure to the north, do not be surprised if it is cloudy instead, but it will remain dry, 10'C by day and 4'C by night.
Wednesday looks a damp, cloudy affair, 10'C by day, down to 0'C overnight in cooler air.
Thursday will be sunny, but chilly at 5'C, with a frost overnight, down to -1'C.

Then we return back to milder but more unsettled weather and currently it does look like heavy rain for New Year's Eve night - too far away to give a definite, but I will be surprised if there is not rain at some point New Year Eve or Day.

Merry Christmas.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 19th December 2011

Mild mild mild mild mild.

I did say December would be mild (ok I know it has been a bit cold this weekend just gone but overall it looks mild).  And I did say no white Christmas.

Though I did say January would be particularly wintry - no sign that I am likely to be right yet - it looks mild or very mild until well into January right now.

One thing that did tickle me about the UK weather last week was the shower of apples, near Coventry.

Anyway, to normal weather:

Tonight will be dry and mostly cloudy, 3'C.
Tuesday will start bright but clouding over in the afternoon with rain later in the evening and overnight, 7'C by day, possibly up to 10'C overnight.
Wednesday will see high pressure building from the south, with sunny spells and mild temperatures up to 13'C - it really will be rather pleasant.  No lower than 7'C overnight.
Thursday again sees sunny spells and 12'C.  Cloudy overnight with rain eventually arriving towards dawn, 11'C.
Friday will see any early rain clearing away during the morning, followed by plenty of sunshine as high pressure builds again.  11'C in the rain but cooler at around 8'C once the sun comes out (yes I know, slightly bizarre logic but it is winter), and chilly overnight with a frost possible, around 1'C.
Christmas Eve will be mostly sunny, 8'C - no lower than 4'C overnight.
Christmas Day will be mostly sunny once again, 10'C quite possible, around 4'C overnight.
Boxing Day will cloud over with some patchy rain, 10'C.

New Years Eve currently looks to be relatively mild but a good chance of rain at some point - it will be a week before I can add any clarity to this though.

And that is your forecast.  Goodbye.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 15th December 2011

Sadly only 4 people read my last forecast so you might not know that there is snow on the way for tomorrow morning - however one of those 4 told me how much she likes reading my forecasts - and my day was made and hence I am back on forecasting.  This time I might actually put the link up on Facebook correctly.

I did say that there was a 70% chance of snow - I now say a 90% chance of snow but still only a 70% chance of it actually settling - the ground is very wet and the snow will be fairly wet in nature - it will need to be heavy and consistent and also cold enough to settle.  Equally, there could be 4-5cm here in Reading.  And if you travel anywhere vaguely hilly in the area, there will be snow on the ground.  Reading might just be a touch not cold enough.

Tonight, outbreaks of rain, eventually down to a chilly 1'C.
Friday, around 6am it will start to turn to snow, as above it should settle a bit.  No guarantee.  1'C at best in a distinctly cold northerly wind, -2'C overnight.  A 30% potential for a snow shower in the early evening too.
Saturday will be proper cold but quite sunny, perhaps 2'C at best.  Again, a small, say 20% chance of a snow shower in the evening or maybe even a light dusting overnight, but Reading is not best suited for snow from a northerly blast so don't expect it...just maybe.  Down to -4'C overnight with a sharp frost.
Sunday, again a small chance of a little early snow, 20%, still cold at 2'C but the wind will turn to the west so not feeling as cold, -1'C overnight.
Monday will slowly turn less cold, maybe up to 6'C, with a band of rain for the afternoon.
Tuesday sees high pressure building but it will be a cloudy affair, slowly getting milder, 8'C by day and a lovely 10'C for the night - but with some outbreaks of rain likely later in the evening and overnight (I say likely as Reading might be a shade too far south for this particular area of rain).
Wednesday will be fairly cloudy but there should be some bright sunny spells from time to time, and a positively tropical, 12'C - 8'C overnight.
Thursday quite sunny but cloud building later with rain overnight, 11'C.

I did say categorically no snow for Christmas Day but there is maybe another northerly blast shaping up for around 26th/27th - it wouldn't take a miracle for my Christmas Day forecast to be wrong.  But for now - Christmas will be dry with average temperatures, maybe a frost.  Which yes is different to what I said on Monday (cloudy, mild with some rain) but hardly anyone saw that so I will get away with it ;-)

Updated Weather Forecast - 12th December 2011

I do love a good exciting forecast!

Not quite as exciting as what Scotland had last week, with a maximum wind gust of 165mph in the mountains which is quite crazy.  Down at normal levels, gusts of 80-90mph were widespread.

My favourite picture is definitely one of this wind turbine - please send it to everyone you know who works for Greenpeace/Friends Of The Earth.

I stole it from this guy's Flickr photos, some excellent images on there, worth a gander.

Apologies, Martin, this is a few better photo than your beautiful sunset photo...I hope you appreciate :-)  Next time...

Anyway, in case you hadn't guessed, the weather in Reading this week (and most of northern Europe) is going to be minging - lots of rain, lots of very strong winds (or breeze's as they call them in Scotland), and maybe, just maybe, something wintry.

Tonight will rain pretty much all night from 6pm until well into the early hours, heavy rain too, very heavy at times.  Milder than today though at up to 11'C but very windy, gales likely, peaking around 9pm.  Stay in and read my blogs.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, some showery bits of rain are likely, 7'C by day, 1'C by night, and remaining windy.
Wednesday again fairly cloudy, a little brightness at times, with a 70% chance of a couple of showers though they will be hit and miss, they may even have a touch of sleet in them, no higher than 5'C and down to 0'C overnight, with a more organised area of rain around midnight.
Thursday is when the storm I was expecting for the end of the week is now going to arrive, it's track keeps changing, one minute it is going to Scotland, the next northern England, then the English Channel, and on it keeps changing - now it is forecast to send the worst of the winds to France...ha ha stick that in your Euro, Mr Sarkozy.  Anyway, so although this means that we will avoid the worst of the severe gales, it will start bright but cloud over into the afternoon with heavy, perhaps torrential rain for several hours.  4'C but temporarily getting to 8'C overnight before falling to 0'C quickly as the wind sets around to the north...which will mean...
Friday may see an area of snow for the morning.  Confidence is low to moderate, it depends exactly on what Thursday's storm does and the track keeps changing.  But this is currently the most likely option, 40% likely.  It will definitely be a cold day, in a strong northerly wind, no higher than 3'C and 0'C overnight with a frost.

Saturday and Sunday will be cold with a northerly wind, mostly sunny but a 20% chance of a snow shower on either day.  No better than 3'C by day and down to -3'C overnight which will be a very penetrating frost.  Similar story on Monday.

It should become milder during Tuesday and this will last towards Christmas, maybe even reaching 13'C before Christmas - almost t-shirt weather!

And for Christmas Day itself?  A day I have long being saying there is a 0% chance of a White Christmas?

My current expectation is for a cloudy but mild day, breezy, 12'C with some drizzle or light rain.  Absolutely zero chance of snow.

******

Given the uncertainty with regards to the track of Thursday's storm which keeps changing every few hours, I will update on Wednesday evening if it looks to have changed, because this could easily upgrade back into a damaging storm once again and track across the south of England.

Enjoy the more exciting weather!

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 8th December 2011

Sometimes I feel the need to remind you that I am quite good at this forecasting lark - two weeks ago I said the following:


I am still thinking that there will be some kind of northerly incursion, roughly between 3rd December and 8th December.

But I would be shocked if there was any more than a passing moment of wintryness.

Come the 9th December, it will be back to wind and rain.  And plenty more.


Well, we had the northerly incursion, at the beginning of the week and now we are back to wind and rain - and it is rather stormy in Scotland.  Ok it is the 8th as opposed to the 9th but I am pretty chuffed.


I wouldn't be surprised if this time next week there was something fairly stormy for England.  The chances are quite high.


So, more wind and rain for the next week or so before high pressure eventually settles it down for frost and fog in time for Christmas (I am sure the airports will love a bit of fog just before Christmas!).


A quick photo of the A4 in Reading first:

Tonight will see the approaching rain band clear quite quickly, followed by clearer skies and much colder temperatures than today, potentially down to 0'C, in a cold wind.
Friday will see a ridge of high pressure, mostly sunny, some clouds with a 30% chance of a passing light shower, cool at 7'C and cold overnight, down to -2'C with a frost.  Coldest night of the season so far.
Saturday again will be sunny, but cold at only 5'C.  A frost initially overnight at 0'C but increasing cloud will mean that it will likely clear before sunrise.
Sunday will be cloudy with a band of rain during the middle part of the day for a few hours, 7'C by day, 0'C overnight as the cloud clears, so yet another slight frost.
Monday sees the next deep area of low pressure approach Scotland, bringing gales potentially even to Reading, and a band of heavy rain for later in the afternoon and all through the evening, it could in fact be very heavy rain.  7'C by day and night...maybe a little milder overnight.
Tuesday will remain windy with an 80% chance of showers or longer outbreaks of rain, nowhere near as much as Monday though.  8'C by day, 2'C by night.
Wednesday again windy, rain or showers crossing for all areas, 7'C by day, 2'C by night.


Thursday into Friday has the potential for a nasty area of low pressure over the south of England - it is too far away to be certain, I will be able to confirm on Monday.  This is the thing I am very much keeping an eye on.


High pressure building around 20th December.


Have fun.

Australian Rain

Don't believe the Aussie lies - it does rain in Australia.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 5th December 2011

In my last forecast, I suggested something a little wintry may be on it's way.  Sadly for Reading snow lovers, the chances of snow further south of Birmingham are much reduced, almost to zero.  But cold snaps can upgrade at very short notice...

Also of note, it was the second warmest Autumn on record in England.  Though you may have guessed that already.

Tonight will remain dry, possibly down to 0'C so there could be a slight frost, certainly more likely away from the town centre.

Tuesday should start sunny, but cloud will increase with some patchy outbreaks of mostly light rain in the afternoon/evening, and increasing winds overnight.  8'C by day, 5'C by night.

Wednesday will tend to become quite sunny, still breezy and no more than 8'C by day, chilly overnight at around 1'C.

Thursday will be windy, gale-force gusts possible, and two bands of rain, one for around lunch-time or early afternoon, and one swinging down from a more northerly direction during the evening, roughly around 9pm.  Mild day day at 11'C, much cooler overnight, down to 1'C and feeling cold in the wind.

Friday will be quite cold, at around 5'C but a ridge of high pressure will build keeping it dry and sunny.  A small chance of say around 10% of a little area of sleet and snow but it looks likely to stay well to the north and east of Reading if it does actually even develop.  Cold overnight, maybe down to 0'C again.

Saturday will be much milder, around 11'C but cloudy with outbreaks of rain, still fairly mild overnight at 9'C.

Sunday will see high pressure building so more in the way of sunshine, 8'C by day and 0'C overnight.

It does look like the jet-stream will be stronger the week after so more in the way of wind and rain heading our way, and little in the way of cold.

I was expecting high pressure to build around 15th December but this could well be delayed a bit.

I will be very surprised if there is anything in the way of significant cold or snow before January and maybe not until the middle of January either.  Nothing wrong with cheaper fuel bills :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 1st December 2011

We definitely have an interesting week's weather coming up this week, though not a patch on last year when it was struggling to reach 0'C during the day - we struggle to get anywhere close to that at night at the moment!

But it is definitely going to have a feel of winter during the next week or so, at times.

Snow is not out of the question.

Tonight will see rain clearing and with clear skies later it could end up quite chilly, 1'C.
Friday will be the first cold winter day of the season, probably no higher than 5'C but it will at least be sunny, during the day.  The evening will see increasing winds and a band of rain later in the evening and overnight, but it will be milder, 9'C.
Saturday will start cloudy but should brighten up, it should stay dry although breezy, 11'C by day, 4'C by night.
Sunday looks a mostly cloudy day and there is an interesting little feature developing which could bring a period of heavy rain in the evening and overnight - but it is not yet certain how far north it will go - Reading is on the borderline, just as it was today (Thursday 1st December).  8'C by day - similar overnight if raining, otherwise down to 2'C.
Monday will be a cold but sunny day, with winds from the north-west, it will be sunny and most probably be dry, 5'C by day and 1'C by night but feeling much colder in the wind.  There will likely be some snow further north and towards the coasts, but Reading is way too far inland for it, unless something unexpected happens.  Which it sometimes does, but I really do not think it will.
Tuesday will again be quite windy, it will start cold but gradually become less so, around 8'C and there will be outbreaks of rain towards the evening.
Wednesday looks set fair, still breezy, some sunshine, 8'C and 4'C overnight.

I am going to give you my forecast for Thursday, but I am only 50% confident of something like this.

Thursday by day will be wet and windy, 9'C.  Colder air will quickly dig in behind and there may be a band of snow to follow as temperatures plunge quickly to -2'C.

It won't last.  I am still expecting more wind and rain, with more generally mild weather, to be followed by high pressure and some frosty nights as we approach Christmas.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some very pleasant days with temperatures up to 14'C a week before Christmas.  I did also suggest that January would be more wintry and I stick to that.  And maybe February too.

Another warmer than average spring though once it gets going.

Earthquake Video

If you want to know what it is like to experience an earthquake without having to move from your desk (assuming you are not living in an earthquake zone), then this little video is for you.

Shows how quickly everything can change in an earthquake.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 28th November 2011

The first cold spell of the winter is just a week away.  Ooh how exciting!

But there is wind and rain to get through first - the weekend storms gave an impressive wind gust of 114mph in some Scottish island.  It won't be like that in Reading but there will be something noticeable.

Tonight will see increasing wind, increasing cloud but also increasing temperatures up to 12'C - milder than the day.  And some patchy light rain at times.
Tuesday will be windy with gales and a band of heavy rain in the afternoon and into the evening.  Mild though at 13'C, chilly overnight at around 4'C.
Wednesday will be fairly cloudy with some light showery rain possible, more rain likely overnight which could be heavy, 11'C by day, 9'C by night.  Remaining quite windy.
Thursday is a tricky one, there will be heavy rain to the south but probably not quite reaching as far north as Reading, but assuming we miss the rain then showers are still likely.  A mild 13'C by day but a chilly 1'C overnight once the cloud and showers clear.
Friday will be sunny with a brief ridge of high pressure but only 7'C.  Cloud and rain overnight and windy, gales possible later, maybe up to 9'C in the rain and wind though.
Saturday will start quite mild but with rain - once this clears it will brighten up with the odd light shower possible but remain windy and it could be quite chilly in the wind which is originating in the Arctic though the cold air is way far away at this stage.  11'C by say, 5'C by night.
Sunday will be quite cloudy at times and there will possibly be a couple of bands of showers coming down from the north-west, or maybe even the north.  7'C at best but cooler in the showers, 1'C overnight but feeling much colder in the wind.  Don't be surprised if there is something a little wintry in any showers but I am talking sleet/hail - don't get too excited snow-lovers.
Monday will be proper cold, compared to what we are used to anyway, possibly no higher than 3'C.  Cold enough for snow - but in reality any snow will be reserved for Scotland and northern coasts of England - for Reading it is unlikely.  Not impossible, but unlikely.  A proper frost overnight - down to anywhere like -5'C.
Tuesday will again be cold.  Anything could happen in the way of weather - most likely it will be dry and sunny.  But it ain't guaranteed.

Later next week I expect more wind and rain.

During the middle part of December I expect it to become dry again but cool with frosts and fog possible too.

And rain for Christmas.

I'll let you know later in the week if the chance of something wintry for early next week has upgraded - these things often do at very short notice...you never know ;-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 24th November 2011

Bored of this dry, mild autumn?

Get ready for more rain, more wind, colder temperatures...eventually.

By they way, this could end up being the warmest autumn on record in the UK, it will certainly be in the top 10.

Tonight sees that storm that I previously mentioned was possible, pass north of Scotland - and it did develop into quite a storm so count yourself lucky (unless you are like me and love extreme weather of course!).  But it is bringing the change, cloudy tonight, but mild at no lower than 11'C.  Some bits of light rain later too.
Friday will see a band of rain clearing first thing, which could have a few heavy bursts, then a ridge of high pressure so plenty of sunshine after that, say 10am onwards.  Rather breezy, 10'C by day and 4'C by night.
Saturday will be quite windy, fairly cloudy with some brighter spells, maybe a passing light shower, 12'C by day, 8'C by night.  Chance of some light rain overnight.
Sunday sees another ridge of high pressure so it will be sunny once any morning bits of rain clears away, 12'C by day but a chilly 2'C overnight.
Monday sees the wind pick up again, it will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, 12'C by day and 11'C by night though it should be drier overnight.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, the odd bright spell possible in the morning but a band of heavy rain will cross the country later in the afternoon or into the evening, a good few hours of heavy rain likely.  13'C by day, 5'C by night once the rain clears.

Confidence of exact outcomes from now are reduced, but should be roughly as follows:

Wednesday will likely see outbreaks of rain develop from the south, less mild at 9'C and 7'C overnight.
Thursday looks particularly wet and miserable, quite cold at only 6'C too.  Currently expecting some very heavy rain.

As I said, confidence is low on details.

I am still thinking that there will be some kind of northerly incursion, roughly between 3rd December and 8th December.

But I would be shocked if there was any more than a passing moment of wintryness.

Come the 9th December, it will be back to wind and rain.  And plenty more.

White Christmas?  You are having a laugh.

White New Year?  Quite possible.

White Birthday for James?  Hell yeah.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 21st November 2011

The storm that I previously suggested was approaching the UK, is heading for Scotland, but it will herald a change in the weather pattern for the whole of the UK, including Reading, and eventually bring a chance of a brief cold snap - though still only a chance - something to keep an eye on.

Tonight will be cloudy, misty with a good chance of fog forming later, no lower than 10'C though.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, and probably start foggy too, with a band of showery rain during the middle of the day, 13'C by day but a chilly 3'C overnight as the cloud clears.
Wednesday will see a ridge of high pressure in the south, so dry with sunny spells, 11'C by day, 7'C by night.
Thursday will be cloudy with increasing south-westerly winds, though the storm I previously mentioned will track across Scotland, it will remain dry in England, 12'C by day and night.
Friday will see a band of probably quite heavy rain crossing during the day, more likely in morning or early afternoon, followed by brighter weather and clear skies overnight, 13'C by day, a chilly 1'C overnight, with a chance of fog forming.
Saturday is going to be cool at only 7'C, it may take a while for any fog to clear but then it will become sunny - clouding over later in the day as another deep area of low pressure approaches Scotland, with increasing winds again, temperatures should increase overnight to 9'C with rain overnight at some point.
Sunday will remain windy, with gales possible in blustery showers, once any early rain clears.  Not a pleasant day at all.  9'C by day, 5'C by night but will feel cooler.
Monday is very likely to remain unsettled with showers or longer outbreaks of rain which could be heavy, 10'C by day, 6'C by night, and remaining windy with gales possible again.

Later next week, the jet-stream is likely to move south of the UK, which could allow a blast of cold, wintry air from the Arctic either late next week or into the weekend.  Chances are only 30-40% for England, a bit higher for Scotland.  The set-up of low pressure systems is still too complex for any such guarantees and it will need an expansion of high pressure in the Atlantic.

It is possible, and I will have more certainty come the next forecast.

Even if it does come off, I don't expect it to last long as milder and more unsettled weather will very likely be the main theme for the first half of December.

As I previously said, the highest chance of wintry weather I believe to be in January, this winter.

Incoming Storm Next Thursday?

One worth keeping an eye on.

There is an area of low-pressure which I am following which will likely track across the UK next Thursday, into Friday, and will likely because quite intense.

Lots of rain and lots of wind is quite possible.

Probability is still only 50% but it is looking more certain every day - just the intensity and exact track is fluctuating.

There will of course be more on my next forecast, it is too early to know exactly what it will do and how strong it will be - but finally a little more excitement in the weather!

Updated Weather Forecast - Wednesday 16th November 2011

We are going to have a gradual change in the weather over the next 3-5 days as the influence of the high pressure to the east wanes, allowing something more unsettled to approach from the west, though the likely spell of unsettled weather may not last too long.

I shall go straight into the details as I have food in the oven.

Tonight will remain mainly dry, the odd spot of drizzle is possible but unlikely, 8'C.
Thursday will see a breeze picking up from the south-west, so milder at 12'C, and sunny for most of the day, clouding over later in the evening but again the rain should stay well west of Reading, 9'C overnight.
Friday sees the breeze turn southerly, so even milder at 14'C.  The cloud will gradually clear during the day and it should finish sunny, 7'C overnight.
Saturday sees high pressure building again from the east, it will be mainly sunny and remain clear overnight, 13'C by day, 5'C by night.
Sunday will again be mainly sunny, but cloud will build overnight and some patchy light rain will be possible, 12'C by day and 8'C by night.
Monday will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, I do not expect too much rain but it will likely be on and off all day, 12'C, clearing overnight and a chilly 3'C is possible, and maybe foggy later.
Tuesday will have the potential for a foggy start, and the potential for an area of rain but it is far from certain yet.

The most likely scenario is for there to be some patchy rain at times for the next couple of days, and there is the potential for a heavy band of rain next Thursday/Friday.

Once this clears, if it is as far south as Reading (it may miss), I expect high pressure to build again.

Still no sign of cold.

In fact this autumn will likely go down as one of the warmest in the UK ever.

Remember, I said January would be the most likely month for snow, and December to be surprisingly mild - certainly compared to last year.

Though I don't rule out a brief cold blast at the very beginning of December but I am far from even 50% confident yet.

And finally - a sunset from Martin.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 10th November 2011

My favourite part of the day - weather forecast time.  How exciting!  Except it isn't going to be even vaguely exciting.  High pressure in control still and quite possibly for the rest of the month.

Perhaps more exciting is that I decided to break Martin's photo monopoly with one of my own!

And that is going to be very representative of the weather for some time, though it will become cooler.

I shall put some details on it anyway.

Tonight - low pressure still to the west, high pressure to the east, dry and fairly clear, 8'C.
Friday should start sunny but will cloud over in the afternoon with some patchy rain in the evening, 14'C by day, 9'C by night.
Saturday, sunny first thing but clouding over, staying dry though, 15'C in mild southerly winds, 10'C by night.
Sunday has more potential for sunshine but still plenty of cloud around, 15'C by day and 7'C by night.
Monday will be very similar, perhaps more sunshine but still cloud around, 13'C by day and a chilly 5'C by night with only a light breeze now.
Tuesday sees high pressure building to our west now as well as to our east so it will be mainly sunny, still dry, 11'C by day and a rather cool 2'C overnight - don't be surprised if it is a bit lower and hence a frost.
Wednesday has yet more sunshine, a little more cloud potential than the day before, cooler at 9'C with a frost overnight at -1'C.
Thursday sees more sunshine, a little cloud, 8'C by day and -2'C by night, perhaps lower.

Next weekend has a reasonable chance of some rain, but after that there will be plenty more sunshine, but long gone are our double-figure temperature, and frosty nights will become ever more common.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 7th November 2011

My weather forecasts seem to be getting more sporadic.  That might be my lack of regular employment?!

The general story for this week is high pressure to the east, low pressure to the west, which will continue our mild winds at times.  The main question for this week is will low pressure win out or will it stay dry all week?  I shall attempt to answer.

Increasingly the jet-stream is going to split to go well to the north, and well to the south of the UK, meaning it will get increasingly dry but cooling down, though not until next week.  How much it will cool down is very uncertain.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd light spot of rain is possible but mostly dry, 8'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and dull with some bits of light rain or drizzle at times, 12'C at best, 8'C overnight with more patchy drizzle possible at times.
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some bits of light rain possible in the morning but not for definite.  There is the chance of some bits of sunshine in the afternoon, and a mild 14'C.  9'C overnight.
Thursday sees high pressure more influential, and therefore much more in the way of sunshine though still plenty of cloud about.  There is a 20% chance of some heavy rain in the morning but it should stay well to the west of Reading. A pleasant 15'C, 8'C overnight.
Friday should be fairly sunny in the morning but clouding over later, dry, 14'C, 9'C overnight.
Saturday again should remain pretty sunny, there will be rain to the west but it should remain well to the west - it may however encroach, but the chance is currently low.  15'C in the sunshine, a chilly 6'C overnight.
Sunday will likely again remain mostly sunny, dry, but a little cooler at around 11'C and chilly overnight at 3'C maybe lower.
Monday again sunny and dry but with a more south-easterly wind likely it may only be 8'C, and a frost overnight is likely at 0'C or slightly less.

If only we had set-ups like this during the summer, it would have been hot, hot, hot!  I still think we are only a year or two away from several hot, sunny, dry summers in a row.

From there I expect it to remain dry but get increasingly colder, but nothing too cold - yet.  Temperatures should remain around 4'C to 6'C during the day, and 0'C on average overnight, sometimes slightly less cold, but quite a few frosts too down to -3'C.

That should take up to around 25th November, give or take.

On the last forecast I mentioned a 20% chance of a little snow in England in around 8-10 days time, the chance is now reduced to 10% in my opinion and not for 12-13 days, so in two weekend's time.

One final thing to note is projections of some severe cold building over Greenland.  This happened late last November, and a significant shift south in the jet-stream brought us that freezing December.  Just saying...I still think December will often be mild. For a repeat of 2010, it will need that unusual jet-stream pattern.

Thursday 3rd November 2011

Rain, rain and lots of rain.

That is all I have to say.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 1st November 2011

Do not panic, your local weather forecaster is here once more.

I might just have a surprise for you later in the forecast too?

Tonight, fine, 8'C.
Wednesday sees a big area of low pressure approaching from the west, the same one that brought the record early snowfall to New York area.  No snow for us, far from it with the continued mild southerly winds.  It should start fine but clouding over with outbreaks of rain in the evening and overnight, 15'C by day and a mild 13'C overnight.
Thursday remains with the mild southerly wind, cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, especially likely in the evening and overnight, when it is likely to be heavy.  A very mild 17'C despite the cloud and 11'C overnight.
Friday will see it brightening up and less in the way of rain but some showers cannot be ruled out.  15'C by day, 9'C overnight.
Saturday sees low pressure over northern France, pushing rain over the south of England sporadically, it could stay dry though it is more likely to rain at times, I will confirm later in the week. 14'C by day, 10'C by night.
Sunday a repeat performance, outbreaks of rain at times over the south of England, high pressure building to the north, 11'C.

Next week remains uncertain at the moment, but something I am increasingly certain of is high pressure building from the east from around 12th November.

Depending on the exact location, this will most likely mean the first significant frosts of the season.

However, and I remain very cautious for now, there is a 20% chance in my view, of it being positioned just right to allow a significant area of cold, wintry weather, ie snow, to push across from the east.  Around 15th-17th, give or take.

I repeat that it is a 20% chance at best...but worth mentioning!  Needless to say I will be keeping a very close eye - it is my belief that the wintry weather will come from the east this winter, as opposed to the north last winter.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 28th October 2011

I probably have the best weather photo ever today for you:

Thanks once again to Martin.

Little has changed in my forecast.

It should brighten up during Friday, it will be dry, 14'C.  Mild overnight at 11'C.
Saturday will see a breeze picking up with quite a bit of cloud, 15'C, some rain overnight but mild again at 13'C.
Sunday a similar story, more cloud than sun but warm in any sunshine at 17'C.  Some rain overnight again but mild, 14'C.
Monday mostly cloudy but mild again, 15'C, and more rain in the evening or overnight, which could be heavy, 7'C after the rain clears.
Tuesday sees an area oh high pressure, so dry and sunny, 13'C, 8'C overnight.

Remaining unsettled until around 10th November with rain at times and also windy at times.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 25th October 2011

The good news is that it is going to be mostly mild for the next week or two.  Not as mild as Sunday just gone though which reached 19'C.

The bad news is that you will increasingly need an umbrella.

I did try to take a photo of a puddle last night but my phone camera is crap in the dark.

Tuesday will see low pressure to the west of Ireland still, it should be fairly bright but there is a good chance of a couple of showers which may well be on the heavy side, 15'C though a chillier 6'C overnight.
Wednesday sees low pressure to the west of Ireland and one developing towards Cornwall too, sunny spells will be the main theme with again a 50-60% chance of a shower or too, again possibly heavy, 14'C during the day, 10'C at night.
Thursday sees low pressure to the south over northern France, which means a mostly cloudy day with some outbreaks of rain, some of which will be heavy.  It will be of a showery nature so some places will be fairly dry, others get a soaking.  10'C to 14'C depending on how wet, 7'C overnight.
Friday sees a ridge of high pressure building, so dry, sunny with a few clouds, 15'C quite possible, 7'C overnight.
Saturday has more of a south-westerly breeze bringing more cloud, and perhaps a band of rain later in the evening or overnight, a mild 16'C and mild still overnight around 11'C.
Sunday still breezy but more in the way of sunshine and mostly dry, again a band of rain likely overnight as more low pressure approaches.  16'C by day, 11'C by night.

I expect it to remain mostly unsettled for a while, maybe some short-lived cooler spells during the first part of November but nothing significant likely.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 20th October 2011

Bored of the cold already?  Then you will like my forecast.

As quite often happens, the UK is playing host to a weather battleground - this time we have a strong area of high pressure to the east over Europe, and milder but wet weather trying to push in from the Atlantic.

Had it been much colder, then there would be a good chance of snow - and this kind of set-up is how I think we will get the majority of our wintry weather this winter...in January and February.  I still think December is most likely to be mild.

It was 11.6'C today in Reading, and was a chilly 1.2'C at the minimum this morning.

Tonight won't be quite as cold as mild air is spreading from the west, but it will still be chilly around 3'C.
Friday will feel much better, with a southerly wind forming, albeit taking air from a chilly continent so not quite the heat source it was a few weeks ago, but it will feel less cold at 14'C and there should be some sunny spells, some cloud too though.  8'C overnight.
Saturday should be gloriously sunny, still only 14'C though.
Sunday should remain sunny again, a band of rain is trying to push in from the west but it will decay by time it gets anywhere near Reading and maybe even pushed back west so those of us in Reading should stay sunny and you might feel rather warm at 18'C, ooh!
Monday and a new band of rain tries to come in from the south-west but again is being held back, and it should again stay mostly sunny in Reading, perhaps clouding over later, 17'C quite possible.
Monday night and into Tuesday morning will see this band of rain crossing, so expect a fair few hours of rain, 14'C on Tuesday as it brightens up in the afternoon with the odd shower possible to follow.


The rest of the week should remain mild, though there will likely be some more spells of rain, nothing too significant but enough.

Not too bad I think.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 17th October 2011

The jet-stream is raging right above the UK, and those of you who know me well, may be aware that I believe that it affects more than just the weather, it affects emotions too.  I am waiting to be proved incorrect.  I am not yet certain of causality.

The UK looks set to become a battleground, once again, so forecasting is very difficult at the moment so I may need to make more regular updates.

Monday night will see squally winds and the potential for a short period of very heavy rain, though it may die out by time it gets to Reading, very difficult to know for sure, but most people in the area should get some rain, some much more than others, a mild night at 12'C.
Tuesday sees the introduction of this much colder air, windy, with blustery showers, 11'C but feeling much colder than that.  Chilly overnight.
Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure trying to push in from the south-west, it will be fine but feeling cold at maybe only 9'C - overnight, don't be surprised if you are scraping some frost in the early morning, as it may get down to 0'C...be prepared!
Thursday, chilly but calm, 10'C, sunny too, though there may be some mist or fog to clear.  It might not be quite as cold overnight this time.

It is a strange meteorological situation at the moment, a very fluid one, so apologies for the lack of definition of the medium-term weather.

Anything really could happen, from a proper autumn storm, to a bizarre wintry blast from the east, or maybe a long settled spell of high pressure?

I don't think we are going to know for definite for a couple of days, but it could map out the autumn.

I will do my best to keep you posted on my thoughts.

By the way, the body is most susceptible to illnesses during changes of temperature, ie from hot to cold, like we are going through now, so I think I am going to stock up on oranges, etc to keep me healthy, I don't want lots of colds and stuff like last year, yuck.

I do personally believe that we are more likely to get an early short sharp winter attack in late October or during November but then something much milder and wet and windy until around Christmas time - January and February I feel are more likely for snow and cold this year, but we shall see.

2013 and 2014 I think will be the really cold winters, either this one or the next one might be a little milder than likely.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 14th October 2011

Some time ago I hinted that it may turn wintry towards the end of October, and it seems from the media that many weather organisations also think this is going to happen.

It isn't especially unusual, it snowed one late October evening a couple of years ago, I recall.

I am not promising snow, but I am still convinced that there is a cold spell to end October.

After a few Atlantic storms have passed through.

Another lovely photo from my good friend, Martin, I hope that the next photos I have for you will not be so nice...the good part of autumn has finished, the shitty part is beginning.

For now, the focus is on rain, wind, and just how much...after a significant drop in temperature.

Saturday sees the UK stuck between two areas of high pressure, one to our east, one to our south-west, which will allow for a pleasant sunny day, after a chilly start, 16'C will feel quite nice.
Sunday will see a band of rain approaching from the north-west but it will die out by time it reaches Reading, there may be some spits and spots, a chilly start to the day again but it will rise to maybe 17'C but you won't see much sunshine during most of the day.
Monday will be fresher and there will be a noticeable wind, and perhaps a few showers and a band of rain is likely later in the day, probably overnight, 14'C.
Tuesday will feel cold once any early rain has cleared, with a north-westerly wind, and some showers are again possible, 11'C at best but feeling colder, possibly down to 2'C overnight.
Wednesday sees high pressure building from the south-west for a short while, so a more settled day, less wind but still quite cold, 10'C, and another cold night, 2'C again possible.
Thursday should be reasonably pleasant but the next low pressure is approaching so it could finish with rain, 12'C, less of a cold feel.


And from then I think we will have a week of very strong winds at times, some long periods of rain, day after day.

Hello Autumn.

By the way, I almost forgot to mention, that for the first half of October, we are about 5'C above the average temperature.  Quite ridiculous.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 10th October 2011

Busy, busy, busy, and I am afraid that I do not have any photographs either.

The weather will get busy soon, but for now it is still quite peaceful, at least for those of us in the south, in Reading, where my forecasts are based on.

We have another ex-hurricane to affect our weather, I think it is Philippe, it is heading to the west of Iceland so no wind and rain for us, but it is the air masses that they affect as we saw with the last two hurricanes.

So, yes, it is going to get warmer.  At some point the hurricanes will stop messing around with the flow of Atlantic storms and the storms will come back to us...probably not too far away, maybe in 7-10 days.

Tuesday sees high pressure trying to build from the south but at the same time cold weather coming down from the north, which will create rain over the north of England, maybe the midlands, but the south will stay mostly dry, but mostly cloudy, 19'C.
Wednesday sees high pressure taking more influence but the wet weather does push down a bit further south, so I am expecting more sunshine on Wednesday but also the chance of some bits of rain at times, and it should feel warm in the sun at 20'C.  Unless you are unlucky and it stays cloudy and damp then it might stay at 16'C.
Thursday sees high pressure really building to the east, I expect a lot of sunshine, some clouds, 18'C is the most likely temperature.
Friday should be quite gloriously sunny, though there may be some early mist or fog to clear, and therefore it might only reach 16'C and be quite chilly overnight too.
Saturday again likely to be sunny after some early mist or fog, 15'C and possibly close to zero overnight so a touch of frost possible.
Sunday something similar before the Atlantic storms start arriving...which may only last a week or 10 days before becoming calm again...we shall see.

Autumnal.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 7th October 2011

Good to see the Met Office are upping their game, and have published a page showing that they predicted the exceptionally warm spell on 23rd September.

I shall just repost a link to my forecast of 22nd September.

Forgive me for a celebrating the accuracy of my forecasts, it does give me pleasure and I do try my hardest for all of my readers.


Saturday sees high pressure trying to nudge in again, but it will be mostly cloudy and still quite cool, 14'C, chance of a light shower or two in the afternoon but nothing much.
Sunday does again look mostly cloudy but we will have warmer air again, 18'C, maybe more if the sun breaks out.
Monday again has a lot of cloud around but if the sun does break through in the south, which it could well do, 20'C is possible.
Tuesday, plenty of cloud potential again, dry, 18'C.
Wednesday, I am more hopeful of sunshine, 19'C.
Thursday should also be dry, pleasant and rather sunny, 18'C.

Maybe getting colder for the weekend.

So, not too bad at all.  That was an easy forecast!  You haven't seen the last 20'C day yet :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - 3rd October 2011

Well that was a bit good, wasn't it?  If only it would be like that during the summer months, though I really do not think we are far away from having 2-3 summers in a row which are just dry and gloriously sunny...it will happen during this decade I believe, and sooner rather than later.  We shall see.

Another excellent sunset photo from my friend Martin - this isn't a photo duopoly, I will happily publish any weather photo that is sent as long as it fits.

The scenery will certainly look fantastic this autumn, there will be some excellent opportunities for the photographers out there.

Tuesday will have a much different feel to it, much more cloud, temperatures around 18'C, a spot or two of rain is possible, as are some brighter spells too.
Wednesday will be increasingly windy, plenty of cloud but a bit more sunshine than the day before and should still feel quite pleasant at 19'C.  A band of rain overnight, heralds much cooler air.
Thursday is a case of sunshine and showers, in a chilly north-westerly wind, 13'C the most likely temperature which is quite a drop from what we have become used to, I doubt there will be many showers reaching Reading and they won't be that heavy, more kind of horrid blustery in your face kind of showers.
Friday sees high pressure building from the west again so it should be sunny, and feel more pleasant but still only 15'C.  It will be rather chilly overnight, possibly down to 3'C.
Saturday, high pressure will still be to our south so it will remain dry and might warm up to 16'C but it will be a cold start.
Sunday, dry again and a reasonable amount of sunshine and maybe up to 19'C.


I am expecting more high pressure during the first half of October but it will start to bring fog and frost.

At least rainfall amounts will stay low until the latter half of October.

Updated Weather Forecast - Saturday 1st October 2011

I think the heat might have got to my head, I am doing a third updated of the week - three whole forecasts from me in a week!  The main reason is that I can give a slight upgrade on the downgrade that I suggested for next week.

First, a beautiful sunset photo over London, taken again by my very good friend, Martin.

Sunday will be the last of those gloriously hot sunny summer days, only 26'C and a tiny bit of high cloud at times as the low pressure systems in the Atlantic approach.
Monday, however will still be mainly sunny, with a little cloud, and 25'C is still quite likely.  A band of cloud will pass overnight introducing noticeably fresher air.
Tuesday sees high pressure trying to reassert itself to the south of the UK, normal temperatures of 19'C which is still pretty decent, some sun, some cloud.
Wednesday sees the winds increase, but the weather during the day will be fair, possibly still around 19'C but there will be a band of showery rain overnight, possibly rather heavy with gusty winds.
Thursday will have this cold north-westerly wind so be prepared, it will be a shock to the system!  It might start mild depending how quick the band of rain disappears but will cool down during the day, 14'C at best.
Friday should be fine and sunny, the high pressure will have displaced the cold winds to the east but it won't be warm, just feeling less cold, 15'C.

Saturday and Sunday may well see the return of the warmer air, sunshine and temperatures of 20'C or maybe a little more.

I will be disappointed if October doesn't include gales, frost and some early snow.

Enjoy.  I will.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 29th September 2011

The cold is coming, I hope you can remember where your winter coat and gloves are...I am about to dust off my collection of 15 scarves.

Today's photo is from Martin S again.

But for now enjoy the sunshine and possibly record-breaking temperatures - Saturday might be the hottest October day ever in the UK.  It would need to be higher than 29.4'C.  Unconfirmed reports that the highest ever 29th September temperature was recorded today at 29'C - the previous date record was 27.8'C.

Reading is probably just a little too far west but we reached 26.7'C today and I wouldn't be surprised to see 28'C on Friday or Saturday.

Friday sees high pressure to our east continue to pump hot air and beautiful clear skies, 27'C quite likely.  Hotter than Ibiza?
Saturday continues hot and sunny, with just a little cloud developing possibly but nothing ruinous, 27'C again should be reached.
Sunday sees the hot and sunny weather just cling on, 26'C, a little high cloud possible.
Monday sees the hot air displaced and a westerly wind develop, it should start sunny but cloud will build, 22'C so still warm.  But not for long.
Tuesday will be much fresher, still fairly bright but at 15'C you won't want to be sitting in it!
Wednesday is fairly likely to see an area of rain develop during the day, followed by a north-westerly or perhaps even a northerly wind later in the day, 13'C.
Thursday is likely to have a northerly wind coming all the way from the Arctic, but with high pressure to the west it should remain sunny, small chance of a shower.  But at something like 11'C, I don't care if it is sunny!  Cold overnight too with a chance of a frost, around 2'C - the coldest so far.

From then on, high pressure should situate over the UK, which means a slight recovery in temperatures, maybe to 16'C but increasing chances of frost overnight and/or fog to start.

High pressure likely to remain dominant until the middle of the month, perhaps longer and whilst it does, it wouldn't take a huge shift for it to pump warm air back from the south once more...but it ain't going to happen until after next weekend.

Enjoy the rest of the lovely hot sunny weather and if you are a hot girl, get your legs out please :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 26th September 2011

Oh I do like to be beside the seaside.

It seems my promise of bringing the Ibiza warmth back has worked out, I hope you appreciate it.  I did think it was a bit selfish of me to go to Ibiza and enjoy the heatwave and leave everyone in the cold and wet weather.

The questions are - how hot will it get, and how long will it last?

No photos today, I am too disorganised, sorry.

So, as per my previous forecast, Tuesday will see high pressure over Germany, giving us a warm south-easterly flow, temperatures up to 24'C, perhaps some early morning mist to clear first.  Lots of sunshine.
Wednesday sees that flow of air become a bit more southerly, 25'C should be reached in glorious autumnal sunshine.
Thursday just that little bit better, maybe up to 27'C, lots and lots of sunshine.  (If this were July, we would be looking at 37'C).
Friday and the patterns stays the same, hot and gloriously sunny, 27'C.
Saturday, the heat should just about hold on, perhaps with a little more cloud, 26'C.
Sunday probably still sunny but warm rather than hot, 23'C.

The most likely outcome is that the high pressure will then drift west towards Ireland, and the temperatures will fall back the following week, so somewhere between Wednesday and Sunday on that week, a northerly flow will likely develop, from the Arctic, bringing frost and an early wintry feel which will be quite a shock to the system, daytime temperatures as low as 10'C possibly - no snow down south but it will feel raw.

So get the scarves ready.

I doubt it will last long as I would then expect the Atlantic to roar back into action with wind and rain, and milder weather for a time.

Until perhaps a cold snowy November?


With regards to winter, I am starting to favour a surprisingly relatively mild December, but followed by a very snowy and very cold January and February.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 22nd September 2011

I did promise to bring back the Ibiza sunshine.  I think someone may have listened.

I cannot actually believe the weather forecast that I am making right now, it is looking ridiculously good for next week.  Stupidly good.  I am so excited to tell you about it.

Friday will see the high pressure building to our south-east, it should be reasonably sunny, though more cloud likely later, 19'C is possible after a slightly chilly start of around 6'C.
Saturday should warm up quite nicely to around 20'C but there is a band of rain coming from the west but it is weakening quickly, it will likely make it cloudy later in the day with some spots of rain in the evening and overnight which is not a bad thing as it will keep night-time temperatures at a mild 14'C.
Sunday will see the cloud and bits of rain clearing to be replaced by some sunshine, but there is also a small area of low pressure developing which will head across Scotland overnight, which may increase the amount of cloud in Reading.  18'C will be reached, but if there is a good amount of sunshine then 21'C is possible.
Monday, that low pressure will move out of the way and the high pressure will assert itself a little bit more, temperatures will depend on cloud levels, it could be a disappointing 15'C but also a pleasant 19'C.
Tuesday, say hello again to summer, as the high pressure will be to our east, and we start to pump up the air from the south, all the way from Ibiza!  24'C very likely, a little less if stuck under some cloud still.  And still mild overnight.
Wednesday sees even warmer air being pumped up so 26'C is likely in lovely sunny skies.  And again, very mild overnight.
Thursday could be ever hotter, I wouldn't rule out 28'C somewhere.  Beautiful sunshine.

And next weekend I expect to be something also quite similar, very warm, or hot, mostly sunny.

I still expect the first part of October to be warmer than average and dry, but as it goes on, increasing chance of fog and frost as it cools down, and then followed by some autumn storms and some early wintry weather during November.

This really will be summer's last stand.  I did say it would be a pretty good summer.  Granted June, July and August were mostly disappointing but I don't think we can complain compared to previous summers.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 20th September 2011

You may have noticed that I have been to Ibiza and I tried my hardest to bring the weather back with me.  They are having an exceptionally hot September - and I think we may catch some of it.

I have this rather lovely looking photo of what I believe is a sunset from my good friend Martin - the clouds say sunset to me anyway.

I do recall suggesting that September might end up being warmer than August...

Tuesday will be cloudy and humid, quite warm too up to 19'C, there is a band of rain very slowly approaching which should arrive in Reading later in the evening and overnight, and it could be heavy at times.
Wednesday, fresher and breezy, some sunshine too, 17'C, chance of a light shower.
Thursday will see the high pressure to the south try to push up a bit, but there will be plenty of cloud, with some sunny breaks it could reach 18'C, quite pleasant.
Friday should be a bit sunnier, there will still be cloud around but 20'C is possible in sunshine.
Saturday may start bright and quite warm, up to 20'C again, but a band of rain will cross later in the day, perhaps not until the evening though.
Sunday sees high pressure settling to our south-east, so it will be dry with some sunshine and possibly 21'C.
Monday will have a very warm southerly wind, and if the cloud clears it could reach 22'C.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar but maybe even warmer, 24'C - possibly even 25'C.

And it should continue in this kind of theme until and during the weekend.

And then a warm, dry start to October perhaps?  Before the autumn storms kick back in...

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 12th September 2011 Maybe?

Hot, sunny and 33'C in Ibiza.

I have no idea of the weather in England but I think it will rain.  Sorry but I am too busy partying.

Maybe I will bring the sunshine back for a day or two.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 9th September 2011

Hello Katia.

Ex-hurricane Katia is on its way to the UK.

Normally, any hurricanes or tropical storms which go up the eastern side of the US and end up in the Atlantic, either tend to merge into mushy Atlantic storm systems or go up to Iceland.

However the jetstream is focused straight from Canada to the UK, as it has often been this last few months, and is set to take Katia with her, as her own storm system.

Again, hurricanes need very warm waters to fuel themselves, which the Atlantic does not have, so it should decline on its own accord, and be at worst an autumn storm.

But you may have noticed a warming of the air since Hurricane Irene, and also there is currently a depression in the Atlantic spiralling hot air up through Spain and France, some of which will reach the UK - although we ain't going to get much sunshine.  Well, I am, as I am going to Ibiza.

Friday sees this warmth pushed up to the UK, and in any sunny breaks it could reach a pleasant 24'C.
Saturday looks like there will be a weak band of rain pushing across, and in the sunshine before or after, depending on the timing of the rain, it should reach 22'C as the rain won't last that long, but it will spoil some of the day.
Sunday, is a little tricky to forecast partly because of Katia, but I expect an area of heavy rain over much of southern England for much of the best part of the day, 17'C at best.

Sunday night and into Monday is where it will get interesting.  At best, expect gales with a band of rain, and showers following.  Somewhere in the UK will get Katia's severe gales or possibly storm-force winds.  Most likely the Scotland area or the north or England - but it could go south.  It could.  Maybe.  25% chance.  I know that doesn't especially help.

Following that, expect a lot of wind and rain and come Wednesday, a northerly plunge of air which may take it down to 15'C.

High pressure may build towards the weekend - but what course will the next hurricane take?!  I think she is called Maria.

If, and it is a big if, Katia is going to be a cause for concern to anyone living in England, you won't get much notice, as the track is unpredictable, and until maybe yesterday I was pretty sure all England would get is gales, and the worst would be in Scotland, but now there is a bit more uncertainty.

These are the hurricane tracks that similar storms take and you can see that they do not reach the UK hardly ever - these are storms with a similar track to Katia since 1851.

It should degrade, but I think it is worth watching, just in case.  Just be prepared.

It can happen - remember Hurricane Charley?

I do not know when my next update will be due to my travels, if I have time for one on Saturday then I will, if not then you may have to wait until I get back from Ibiza as I do not believe that they have the internet there.  The hippies banned it, so I am told.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 5th September 2011

I think you can tell it is autumn, but autumn does have more than one weather style.

Those milky skies - yes that is the sign of the first real autumn storm approaching.

Tonight you will notice the increasing wind, but it will remain mild, 14'C.
Tuesday the rain will arrive in the early hours of the morning and will not leave until very late in the day, it will be heavy at times, equally there will be lighter patches, and it will be windy, possibly gale force in the morning.  18'C.  Not that temperature will be important.
Wednesday will be breezy with a westerly wind and plenty of showers, they won't too long, there will be the odd bit of sunshine but distinctly autumnal, 16'C.
Thursday will be noticeably warmer at around 20'C but no sunshine, instead more wind and cloudy skies, with some rain likely on and off during the day.  Very mild overnight - 17'C.
Friday will continue mostly cloudy with some showers in the breeze, if it stays cloudy then 22'C but with a bit of sun anything up to 25'C is possible.  23'C being the most likely.

Remember - I did say Hurricane Irene would affect our weather!

And I have just had three pints so this next part might not be so accurate - or it might be exceptionally so?

Saturday looks most likely to see low pressure coming from the south-west with an area of rain, still warm around 20'C.  Not exactly sure where the location it will hit, but if you are in the south, expect a period of rain.
Sunday looks like the next area of low pressure will be over Scotland, with high pressure building over France, so expect some showers but a bit of brightness at last, fresher, 18'C.
Monday might end up warm, dry and sunny at 24'C.  Though 30% chance that it might rain instead.

More rain quite possible on Tuesday but I am hopeful of some more warm and sunny weather after.

I do expect quite a bit of dry weather towards the latter half of September (with perhaps a surprise early frost), and especially more dry weather likely as we head into October, with some much warmer air than normal quite possible for a week around the beginning or into the middle.

The latter half of October and into November I expect more autumnal storm systems, and probably some quite potent ones with severe gales at times and plenty of persistent rain.  It may initially bring in a brief cold snap at the end of October before it really gets going.

Then winter begins...cold and dry at first, at least in the south, some areas getting some very heavy snowfall but Reading should miss out on the worst of it this time.

Which Sex Do Lightning Strikes Kill The Most?

Men.

Between 1995 and 2008, in the US, 82% of those killed were men.

One assumes because women are sensible enough to go indoors so they don't get their hair wet, whilst men continue playing golf, etc.

News report.

Snow, Snow & More Snow

Reading international weather news recently, I have found stories of unusual snowfall events.

Including, snow as far north in New Zealand as it has been in decades, 31 inches of snow in a desert in Chile where average rainfall is just 4mm a year (about the average amount of rain every day in England...I guess), and up to 60cm of snow in South Africa, another unusual event.

I have also heard reports of early snowfalls in the northern hemisphere despite it only just turning to autumn, in the Swiss mountains, mountains in Canada and even the top of the Scottish highlands.

One is expecting another cold winter - I will be very surprised if we do not at least match the volume of snow of 2010 (bear in mind most of it was in November and December here in the UK), and the cold temperatures.  I might get around to a full autumn/winter forecast this week.

Updated Weather Forecast - Wednesday 31st August 2011

Apologies for the lack of a forecast on Monday - this whole not working thing seems to mean that I am confusing my days.  That and an inability to wake up before 2pm.  I like the night-time anyway, exciting things happen.  I won't be doing one tomorrow.

I did hint a couple of weeks ago that there may be a pleasant surprise in September.  This is quite possibly due to Hurricane Irene and the tropical air that it sent up to the upper reaches, well middle reaches, of the Atlantic.  It does seem as though a very welcome pattern change is upon us - I wonder if the average September temperature may be higher than August's?

The jetstream looks is projected to go north of the UK for a reasonable amount of time - this is good news if you like summer weather.

Thursday sees warmer air push up from France - there will still be a lot of cloud around so it won't be as warm as it could be, 21'C.  But there will be some sunny interludes.  And it will be dry.
Friday will be nicer, still far from wall to wall sunshine but there will be enough.  And it might reach 25'C with a bit of luck.
Saturday sees a band of rain approaching from the west, but it is likely to stay dry with variable amounts of sunshine - 27'C is possible.  It is also worth mentioning that we may import a thunderstorm from France later in the day or overnight, low chance say around 30% but the chance is there.
Sunday sees any rain clearing away to be followed by sunshine and some mostly light showers, much fresher at 21'C.
Monday will see a few hours of rain during the middle of the day, followed by showers, much cooler possibly only 16'C.
Tuesday should be much better, still a 60% chance of showers but more in the way of sunshine and a little warmer at 18'C.
Wednesday looks most likely to see some early rain, clearing away during the day and brightening up - and getting warmer at 21'C.


From then on, I am hopeful of more warmer weather with sunshine and it might even be dry for a while.  Not totally confident yet but this looks the most likely option.

Enjoy the two hot days :-)

Hurricane Irene

This is how quick the hurricane can take effect, this video is in Puerto Rico, I admire her calmness.

Not only is this going to hit Florida and the Carolina's, it might also hit Washington and New York.

And affect the weather in the UK.

You will hear a lot about this hurricane.

Another video

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 25th August 2011

Forecasting the weather over the next couple of weeks is going to be even harder than usual - thanks to Hurricane Irene.

You will hear a lot about her, in the coming days and she will influence our weather.  Or so I believe.  Depending upon her track, we could either get lots of tropical air making it warm and humid, or we could end up with lots of wind and rain.  With the jetstream forecast to be strong and in the direction of the UK, sadly the latter is most likely.

Anything could happen over the next 10 days, which is why the UK weather is so interesting.

First we have our own area of low pressure to deal with, which is actually more like 3 low pressures, one over Ireland, one over Scotland, and one over the north of France heading north.

So, tonight and tomorrow, at some point, will see torrential rain in some areas.  I think Reading is likely to get hit tonight, maybe with some thunder, though the potential for more downpours is still there on Friday, especially in the morning.  Some areas of the UK will have flooding.

Friday may end up drier towards the end, at around 18'C.
Saturday sees high pressure trying to build, but still plenty of potential for showers, which could be heavy - showers more likely in the early part of the day, 18'C at best.
Sunday sees a weak area of high pressure, plenty of cloud, some light showers around, 19'C.
Monday should be dry, with some sunshine, 20'C perhaps.

With all the uncertainty prior to this, I really cannot be sure of the following days, but my guess is as follows:

Tuesday, dry but cloudy, 18'C.
Wednesday, dry, some sunshine, 20'C.

Thursday is when we may start to see what affect Hurricane Irene is having upon our weather.  It could turn out good, but equally, it might continue to be poor.

Keep a close eye on weather forecasts if you are depending on the weather as the expected torrential rainfall will arrive with just a few hours notice and nobody knows exactly where it will be.

Happy bank holiday!

Extra Update Forecast - Wednesday 24th August 2011

As I mentioned on my Monday forecast, there is a band of showers for the end of today, and the amount of rain likely has been upgraded to a substantial amount, similar to last Thursday, so don't be surprised if there is some localised flooding in the morning.

The worst of the rain will clear fairly quickly.

Interestingly, I have just found out that the rainstorm of last Thursday had remnants of tropical storm Franklin in the weather system.

I have always believed that hurricanes have an effect on the UK weather, not always that directly, and I am tracking the projections of Hurricane Irene, which I think will bring a marked improvement to our weather in the beginning of September...but I am not sure on its lasting effects...damn you jetstream.

I will explain all in my Thursday forecast.

One other thing to mention is that if you are camping at a festival, take warm clothing, the nights have been chilly and may get down to something like 4'C during the latter part of the bank holiday weekend which really is quite cold.

If you need any more detail then my forecast issued on Monday should cover it.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 22nd August 2011

Were you one of the two readers of my weather forecast last week?  If so, thank you.

The topsy-turvy summer continues.  Two good days in Sunday and Monday but some less good days to follow now.  I still remain hopeful for the bank holiday, but don't expect anything warmer than average.  Maybe some sun, and maybe a dry day or two.  Imperfect but it could be far worse.

Tonight will see heavy rain, possibly torrential with a rumble of thunder possible, any time from midnight through much of tomorrow.  It will be showery in nature, with pulses coming from the south - get stuck under one and three hours of heavy, torrential rain is possible, but equally some places will mainly miss out and just get some light rain.
Tuesday, as I said will see this rain at times, getting less heavy during the day, the worst will be in the morning.  The cloudiest areas with the heaviest of rain may not see anything higher than 13'C.  Get some sunshine at any point then 18'C is possible.
Wednesday sees low pressure approaching from the west, but it should be sunny for most of the day in Reading and may reach 21'C.  There will be a band of showers coming from the west, most likely in the evening, some could be heavy.
Thursday sees low pressure somewhere close to Ireland, so lots of showers in bands.  The driest sunniest places may reach 20'C, those with regular showers 17'C.  You will be lucky to stay dry all day.
Friday sees the low pressure slap bang over the UK, just in time for the weekend!  Lots of heavy showers, possibly torrential, thunder possible, and some longer periods of rain also.  One or two places may be lucky and stay dry.
Saturday sees the low pressure pulling away, there will be showers still but a few less.  Some places may stay dry but still 80% chance of a shower or two.  19'C in any sunshine.
Sunday sees high pressure building, at last!  Expect some sunshine, some clouds, 20% chance of a shower which should be fairly light now, 21'C is possible.
Monday, sunny, some clouds, 10% chance of a light shower, 21'C again possible.  Rather pleasant, Ibiza preparation weather I feel.

From then on I think high pressure will be close to the UK bringing higher chances of sunny dry weather.  Cooler than average perhaps at first but maybe warming up.  Sadly all the hot weather has gone east to Russia, like last year, and the sun is not so strong now so if it is going to warm up, it will take a while.  Sunny and average will do me though.

The jetstream looks like taking a path up north for a while, with much lower air pressure over Greenland, this might continue.  Fingers need to be crossed.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 18th August 2011

We are clearly going into a new period of uncertainty.

The Atlantic is brewing storms once more, the jet-stream looking to be active and intense at times, and in the direction of the UK, before splitting partly to the south, and to the north.  It is this kind of pattern that gave rise to the severe heat in Russia in 2010, and the flooding in heavy monsoon rains in India and Pakistan.

Coupled with this is hot air trying to push in from the south, and an unusual amount of cold air for this time of year to our north - we have a very uncertain outlook.

I am still learning, and in the future, I will try to make more regular forecasts for when the weather is volatile, like it is now.

I take a lot of pride in my weather forecasts, and I admit the last two have been poor.  They haven't been totally out of context and I did suggest that there could be a downpour today, but I do need to up my game.  I always appreciate any feedback that you can give, to help me make better forecasts in the future.

So, as we stand, there is heat and humidity pushing up from the south, but low pressure barrelling towards the UK to our north-west.  There will be periods of hot sunshine but the difficulty is the timing.

Friday will start cold, you may need a jacket, but it should turn out to be a fairly sunny day as high pressure builds and it may reach 21'C perhaps.  It was only 10.4'C at lunch today.
Saturday sees the next area of low pressure building to the west, it should stay dry and will feel warm and humid, 23'C, maybe a little higher.  There is a risk of overnight downpours.
Sunday is a ridiculously difficult day to forecast right now, hence I will try to provide another forecast on Friday/Saturday.  If sunny, then 28'C.  But more likely it will be cloudy and hot, and at some point there will probably be more downpours, and the potential for flooding.
Monday I also see as hot and cloudy, with more torrential rain at times possible, and again, more flooding possible.
Tuesday, the worst of it should clear to the east gradually.  Still very warm, 23'C, possibly more, possibly less.


We may get a couple of dry and warm days after that.

Bank holiday I am not sure, I currently favour dry weather holding on in the south but with low pressure to the north-west, who knows, it may end up raining down here too.

Apologies for the uncertainty, but that it the English weather after all.  The Met Office didn't issue any warnings on their website for heavy rain in the south or south-east of England that I saw, so it wasn't just me...in fact I did say that there was a chance on Monday!  I just wish I had looked last night...

I will try to update regularly throughout the weekend.

Reading Flooding

I took my eye off the ball, and look what happened...flooding...typical.  Though I did on Monday warn of the potential for a downpour, I didn't at the time expect it to be so severe.

So far the best reports I can find are this video of the bridge near the train station earlier.

If anyone has anything to add, let me know, I will be happy to.

I will do a proper forecast later, and the weekend isn't looking as good as I had hoped in terms of heat or sunshine...but there should be something.

***

Bournemouth got it worse, not sure if they had more rain in total than Reading but something similar I expect, it just came down in a much shorter space of time in Bournemouth than it did in Reading.  The figures will no doubt show later...but the pictures are quite something.  Thanks to Sophie for putting me onto this.

***

Be prepared for a repeat on Monday or Tuesday.  I will give more details later.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 15th August 2011

Firstly, apologies for the last forecast, it wasn't my best, I was feeling a little bit aggravated and couldn't concentrate on it properly - I think I got the general idea right but I said that Monday's rain would arrive on Tuesday instead.  Meh.

That it arrived on Monday will be a good thing, though.

Today's picture is again from my good friend Martin, I like these skies - they promise sunshine but suggest a storm could be a day or so away.  It was taken on 1st August if I recall correctly.  Sunshine and thunderstorms, I love it!  If anyone wants me to feature one, please do send it to me.

Tuesday sees this little area of low pressure decaying over us, so plenty more cloud, perhaps some spots of rain, but with any sunshine it could reach 20'C.  Without then just 17'C.
Wednesday sees a lot of nothingness, with the cloud from the decaying low still to burn off - remember that the sun ain't as strong in August as it is in June, so it isn't so easy, but pressure is rising to the south and south-west.  Temperatures really will depend on sunshine amounts, anywhere from 20'C to 25'C possible, it really will be very localised weather.

Thursday will be a very similar day, plenty of cloud in many areas, but some places sunny, cloudy places will see some sun too I expect at 21'C, and the sunniest places could see 25'C.  I don't rule out a late afternoon downpour, these will be rather localised again, and with little wind they will be slow to clear if you do get one.
Friday will be dry and sunny, low pressure is however approaching from the west.  Depending on how quickly the cloud has burnt off during the week, temperatures up to 28'C are possible, though 24-25'C is most likely, and over quite a large area.  This will be the best day of the week.

And Saturday, glorious Saturday...well...subject to variation, this low pressure to our north-west will be trying to push in rain to the UK, but will have a southerly flow ahead of it, so assuming it is sunny it could just reach 30'C in the south of England. ?

Any further from that will depend on what has happened before.

It is already looking better than I hoped, given that the rain I forecasted for Tuesday arrived today.  It makes sense to me that rain arriving quicker is a good thing, anyway.

Sunday could be anything really, you could have an uncomfortably hot day around 32'C, or just hot 28'C with a big ass thunderstorm perhaps overnight.  Or maybe I am wrong with everything before and it is 20'C, cloudy and wet (but this is the least likely outcome in my eyes...but it is a possible outcome so I have to mention it).

I remain hopeful of a spell of settled weather later in August, or during September, warm and sunny kind of settled.

By the way, as I write now, the Met Office website agree with me for lots of sunshine on Friday, but only 21'C.  I say up to 28'C.

Oh and I think the bank holiday weekend will be good by the way, either hot with thunderstorms, or very warm and sunny.