A June Of Three Thirds?

I expect June to be split into three.  The first part wet, but not always as cold as this, the second part to be fine and dry but not massively warm, and then a heatwave, most likely with downpours, to finish.  The unsettled part will be for around another 10-16 days, the two spells afterwards for between 4-8 days each, still very uncertain.

I will talk about July and August later.

I have to admit that the Jubilee weekend forecast was the worst I have made for a while.  It was a very difficult one to predict - hence why nobody was saying anything about what the weather would be until a few days in advance - I am trying to do it much further in advance and I have to hold my hands up and say I got that one wrong.  Sorry.

It was only on Thursday 31st that I was able to get a true grip on what was going to happen, such was the unpredictability of it.  Why was it so unpredictable?  A combination of things from a very southerly jet-stream wanting to move north towards the UK, the first tropical storm of the season, Beryl which was unusually early to get mixed up in the Atlantic, a hot plume from Africa and high pressure building to our north-west, all made it a total mess and very unpredictable.

I took a punt and lost.

I am more certain about this week being unsettled though and I give you details:

Wednesday may see some sunshine but don't be fooled, showers will develop , some heavy, possibly torrential downpours, at any time.  You may get lucky and miss them all in which case it will be a pleasant day at around 17'C, but expect heavy downpours.

Thursday will see a deep area of low pressure, you will notice it being rather windy, and an area of heavy rain will spread across during the day, we are talking 5-6 hours of heavy rain.  It will clear through in the evening to lead to showers overnight.  Between 14'C and 16'C.

Friday will be showery with the potential for longer outbreaks of heavy rain too, around 14'C, cooler though if it is cloudy and wet all day.

At the moment, Saturday could turn out fine at 18'C but heavy rain is on the way, most likely for the evening and overnight, and a real soaking quite likely.  Again, this far out it is not possible to say whether the timing is spot on, there is a risk of the rain arriving during the day.

Sunday will see more rain, and turning cooler.

At the moment I think it most likely that there will be more rain the week after before finally drying out for a while but that is not certain.

I would suggest at the moment, around 18th is my guess for when it might start to turn settled, but cool to start.

Around 25th is my guess for the heatwave.

But things can change and probably will so keep an eye out on my Facebook page for regular short updates.

July I expect to be quite hot at times, some good sunny spells, but also some thundery rain at times, a good mixture but some good sunshine for sure.

August I expect to be drier, hot to start but cooling down towards the end.

If you like my forecasts, please spread the word.  Ta.

James Winfield's Weather Forecast 3rd May

April was wet.  Very wet. Triple the average in some areas.

I would happily bet that May will be wetter than April.

There is also plentiful cold air coming down from the north, as you may have felt - Thursday in Reading did not get above 9.5'C.

But it isn't all doom and gloom because there is a large pulse of hot air in the upper atmosphere which is coming from the south.

Don't get too excited though, because you should know cold air and warm air don't get along easily from your physics education (no I don't remember much sadly).

A cold week will lead into a very wet week, but how it ends depends upon...magic...or perhaps what happens during the week coming, so I cannot be sure yet but I favour the solution of next weekend being very warm and thundery at 60%.  The other solution is a calm, pleasant, sunny, weekend but cold for the time of year with possible frost overnight and around 13'C - one of those is your reward for the week of rain.

This weekend might end up relatively dry.  Cloudy, damp, bits of rain, nothing to shout about.

Next week is concerning as it could possibly rain heavily on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday without much in the way of relent.  If you are living in an area which is likely to flood, be prepared.

So next weekend, as I said 60% it will be 24'C but thundery, 40% of glorious sunshine and 14'C.

I will keep updates on the Facebook page as I do not have the time to put into regular forecasts at the moment.

Oh, I am still expecting a good summer.  Hot July.  Hot August.  I see no reason why not.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 19th April 2012

You know what?

I kind of miss doing my weather forecasts.

I might just have been having a lover's tiff with forecasting, I do not know.  I think I need to forget about not having much of an audience - how many people read my forecasts shouldn't be my judgement of whether it is worth doing them - it has to be more about me and what I enjoy.

And I do enjoy forecasting, and (normally, I think) getting it right.  So I'm going to do it anyway.

This unsettled spell is going to last.  I do not see this pattern changing much during April and May, except for brief glimpses.

Friday I see as slightly less showery.
Saturday I see back to lots of heavy showers around.
Sunday could be quite fair, still some showers, but lighter showers, and lighter clouds.
Monday - a big ass load of rain to make up for being slightly drier on Sunday.  Big rain.

Followed by more days of heavy showers.

Temperatures will remain cool for the time of year, around 11'C, cooler in the rain, but a touch more on the drier days like Sunday, say 13'C.

So far this year's weather is kind of reminding me of 2003, to an extent, and certainly latter parts of last year did.  Remember 2003?

I think my forecasts are becoming like the rain - intermittent.

Over And Out

You may have noticed the lack of weather forecasts recently - or probably more likely you haven't.

I have decided to hang up my weather forecasting jumpers as I simply do not have the time at the moment and I want to focus on what is most important to me, which is my DJing and web design.

My weather blog is actually one year old this week - I have enjoyed it but as the average readers dropped from 20-25 to about 6, it has become more of a chore and I think it is about time to put it to bed.

Plus the Met Office have actually much improved their website - I recommend a revisit if you have stopped going.

Though they won't be giving you meaningful predictions long in advance that I have been.

I am going to continue to put brief outlines on my Facebook weather page - and perhaps if there is something significant worth talking about, I might still do the blog.  Feel free to spread the word.

I hope you have enjoyed reading.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 2nd April 2012

From summer to winter inside a week - don't you love the English weather?

Tonight will be fairly cloudy but mostly dry, odd spot of rain possible, between 2-5'C depending on how cloudy it ends up.
Tuesday may start bright but low pressure develops over England with outbreaks of rain by the afternoon and into the evening, a mild 12'C by day but a chilly 1'C overnight.
Wednesday will be cloudy with a cold north-easterly wind with more outbreaks of rain or sleet, perhaps some wet snow in the morning or evening, 6'C at best.  Outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow overnight still, around 2'C.
Thursday will again be cloudy, any sleet or snow will turn to rain and it will gradually die out, the cold wind also becoming lighter, no better than 6'C again, and possibly down to -4'C overnight with a sharp frost.

There is significant uncertainty for the Easter weekend at the moment, it certainly doesn't look as cold as it previously did though:

Friday will start sunny, there will be a northerly breeze still and the odd shower.  12'C.  Rain spreading down in the evening and overnight, with colder air once more, 2'C.
Saturday sees a cold wind with showers, possibly wintry, 7'C by day, -3'C by night with a significant frost.

Sunday currently looks the best day, sunny, mostly dry, 12'C.
Monday 50/50 as to whether it will be dry and sunny and 15'C - or showery and 12'C.

As I said, the Easter forecast is an uncertain one at the moment, mainly in terms of temperatures as it could be a bit milder than that.

More weather from the north most likely after that, more showers or rain too - but keep an eye out for 20th April give or take for something nicer.

Snow Update - 30th March 2012

There is now a 40% chance of some snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in Reading.

I rate the chance of snow as high as 50% for Easter weekend, most notably on Easter Sunday or Monday.

As you go further north, the chances are higher.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 29th March 2012

And the fat lady sings tomorrow.

Whilst there will be some more sunny days to come - you will need a jacket, and maybe a coat.
There is rain or showers to come too...and maybe some snow.  Maybe.
And almost certainly some frost.

Goodbye summer - see you in a month.

Tonight sees the subtle change as the breeze swings round to the north, mostly clear and definitely dry, 5'C.
Friday will see more sunshine but I do think there is a 20-30% chance of a couple of showers developing - stay dry and sunny and 16'C is yours, but be unlucky and catch a shower or two then 12'C may be your destiny.
Saturday will be cloudy with some light rain or drizzle at times, 12'C and a frost overnight, down to a chilly -2'C.
Sunday will be sunny, but only around 11'C, again cold with a frost overnight, down to -2'C.
Monday will start sunny and it might even reach a pleasant 15'C with a bit of luck, but rain is coming down from the north overnight, 5'C at night.
Tuesday will see rain for much of the morning, 10'C in the rain but becoming cooler when it clears, most likely during the afternoon.  Quite a frost overnight, down to -3'C.
Wednesday looks sunny, 10'C so still chilly and it could get down to -4'C overnight.
Thursday also looks sunny with more normal temperatures, around 13'C.

Friday might hang onto something reasonable before it all goes downhill with northerly blasts and rain or showers - with possibly something wintry (almost definitely for northern England and Scotland) but here in Reading...you know the score by now, snow doesn't often come off.

Don't blame the weather for a crap Easter forecast - blame the moon cycle - or religion.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 26th March 2012

It reached 19.9'C in Reading on Saturday, the highest of the year here so far...you may be amused to hear that it was a paltry 14'C in Shoreditch when I arrived there on Saturday...but the nightclub was hot!

High pressure to remain in charge but turning much cooler for the weekend and somewhat more unsettled.  Remember - I said there was no chance of April 2012 repeating the glorious April 2011.

Here we go:

Tonight will be clear and chilly, down to 2'C.
Tuesday will be sunny and clear again, up to 18-19'C, chilly overnight, perhaps down to 1'C.
Wednesday will be sunny and clear, maybe 20'C.  A little more cloud overnight, around 5'C.
Thursday sees more in the way of cloud but still should be some good sunny spells, a northerly breeze developing, 17'C by day, 6'C by night.
Friday will be the above average day, there will be sunny spells but the odd light shower will be possible, 30% chance, 16'C by day, 7'C overnight.
Saturday will be cooler, around 13'C with showers developing widely, a frost possible overnight, down to 0'C.
Sunday is currently most likely to be fair and dry, around 12'C.

The week following will likely be a mix of sunshine and showers.

Easter currently looks chilly with the chance of wintry showers.  Oh yeah, you heard it here first.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 22nd March 2012

I know I said my last weather forecast was possibly going to be my last regular forecast however it got 29 readers which is a bit more like it - it makes it worth the amount of time I spend on it, and I do spend time on it - every day, a minimum of twice a day I am studying charts, etc.

Granted 3 of the readers came via www.buygenericsfromindia.com.

We reached 18'C today in Reading - and it should go a little higher in the next couple of days - I am happy to put a bet on 20'C being reached.

Remember - I told you this 10 days ago.  Did anyone else tell you?

I don't claim to get every single detail spot on - the professionals cannot and neither can I.  But I do like to believe that I provide something better for the people of Reading and the surrounding area than other widely available "forecasts".

Rant over, have some weather:

Tonight will be cloudy with a small chance of a shower, 6'C.
Friday may start cloudy but the sun will come out and it should reach 18'C in good sunny spells, a 20% chance of a shower later in the afternoon, 6'C overnight.
Saturday will see good sunny spells, some cloud around.  I am hopeful of 20'C being reached.  6'C overnight.
Sunday will be cloudier but there will still be sunny spells and 17'C is quite possible.  5'C overnight.
Monday will be sunnier but more of an easterly than the southerly of the last few days so a touch cooler at 16'C and possibly down to 3'C overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday will both be sunny days up to 17'C or 18'C.

I've said it before and I will say it again - April 2012 will not be a repeat of the beautiful April 2011.  Which is a good thing in my book as another glorious spring will probably curse summer.

I would currently say there is a 50% chance of a northerly setting in by the end of March, bringing, yes, you guessed it - wintry showers.

Either way I expect roughly the first 15-20 days of April to be much cooler than now, and also more unsettled with some hefty showers.

Keep reading and I might keep doing forecasts :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Sunday 19th March 2012

What is this?  A Sunday weather forecast?

Well I have been struggling with time-management recently.  My weather forecasts are possible one of the things that I might have to cull because with an audience of about 5 readers then I think they are probably a luxury in my life and I might have to put my regular weather forecasts to bed, to concentrate on other priorities in life.

There will be no getting me out of my addiction of trying to forecast the weather, and I will still likely post from time to time, and will try my hardest to make any forecasts that are requested of me, however if I do blog any forecasts in the future, it will be just for my own purposes, to remind myself of what I previously forecasted.

So, maybe for the final time:

Tonight will be chilly and may even see a frost, down to -1'C.
Monday will be a boring and cloudy day, odd bit of brightness, odd light shower is also possible, 11'C, down to 2'C overnight.
Tuesday sees high pressure re-asserting itself, though still mostly cloudy, 13'C in any brightness, around 4'C overnight.
Wednesday will see more in the way of sunshine, maybe a 15'C if you are lucky, around 6'C overnight, still plenty of areas of cloud though.
Thursday a touch cloudier than the day before but with the winds from the south, and in fact all the way from Africa, it will feel quite warm around 15'C and higher if more sun than I currently expect.  Around 6'C overnight.
Friday currently looks cloudy and damp, though confidence is not high, around 14'C.

And that should set us up for a nice weekend and we may even see something around 17-18'C at the weekend if we get enough sunshine and keep our fingers crossed.

Thanks for reading.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 15th March 2012

It was mistier and not as sunny this week as I was expecting - and temperatures suffered a bit too.

Time for a bit of rain:

Tonight will be cloudy with some mist and fog patches again developing, down to around 2'C.
Friday will be mostly cloudy, the odd spot of drizzle around, 10'C - a couple of degrees higher if the sun comes out for an hour in the early afternoon.  5'C overnight.
Saturday sees low pressure developing with an area of rain coming up from the south from morning onwards, it will be fairly heavy and 6-10 hours of continuous rain is quite possible.  The worst of the rain should clear around 6pm, give or take.  The band of rain won't be that wide, say around 100 miles, so go far enough east or west and you will stay dry.  A chilly 8'C in the rain and a touch of frost if the skies clear for long enough overnight, 0'C.
Sunday will be brighter but with a 50% chance of a couple of showers, particularly in the afternoon, 10'C perhaps - down to -2'C overnight with a frost.
Monday will start sunny but may cloud over later, dry, 11'C.  A frost is possible overnight.

Next week will be dry, with some sunshine, but overnight frosts and some patches of fog.

Temperatures should improve during the week and should end up above average for the time of year again at around 15'C by the weekend - far lower than I was originally hoping for next weekend however the high pressure looks to be having more of an easterly or south-easterly wind rather than southerly, and the continent ain't that warm yet.

But next weekend should be pleasant.  Certainly much nicer than this coming weekend.

Don't expect a repeat of April 2011 next month though.  I am expecting a fairly unsettled month, at least for the first half.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 12th March 2012

The last forecast was a bit rubbish wasn’t it?  I really didn’t have the time to spend on it.  This one is better.

Not only have I put much more effort and time into it, it is full of nice surprises - even for farmers.

The most important thing to state is that it is very uncertain how much cloud there will be each day.  I'll give the likeliest scenario and associated temperature but please remember for each day that if the sun comes out earlier than I am currently forecasting then add a few degrees to the forecasted temperature, equally knock a few off if it stays cloudy all day.

Tonight will see the cloud increase with some mist and fog patches around, potentially as low as 1'C.
Tuesday will start cloudy, possibly misty, there is a 50% chance of the sun breaking through.  11'C if cloudy, 16'C with a few hours of sunshine.  Cloudy overnight, 4'C.
Wednesday will again start cloudy but there is a 75% chance of the sun breaking through, temperatures will be between 12'C and 17'C depending on sunshine amounts.  4'C overnight.
Thursday will again likely start cloudy but I am 90% confident of a reasonable amount of sunshine and as such hopeful of reaching 18'C.  Around 5'C overnight.
Friday should actually start sunny but cloud and patchy light rain will be approaching from the west as the weather changes just in time for the weekend.  15'C quite possible.

The weekend sees an area of low pressure developing over the south of England and there will be localised areas of possibly quite heavy rain.  It will be localised and as such if you get one it will likely last several hours - but 30 miles away could stay dry and even bright all day.  I will know more detail by Thursday's forecast - but expect a wet and cooler weekend.  It wouldn't even be impossible for a repeat of the other Sunday's wet snow but very, very unlikely at this stage.

Unsettled for a few days after but then maybe, just maybe something quite special to make up for the coming disappointing weekend...

I am hopeful that the weekend after this will see a plume of very warm air coming from the equator region, it is not definite but I am 60% confident.  We could see temperatures up to 21’C widely which is very good for March (25'C being the record), possibly 23'C.

The potential is quite exceptional but it is only currently the most likely solution as opposed to the definite solution - way too far away!

Keep hoping :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 9th March 2012

Apologies but I do not have the time this week to do a proper forecast but thankfully the weather is going to be quite simple this next week or so in that there is a big fat area of high pressure over the UK.

So it will be dry all weekend, well into next week.

It will also be mild.

The tricky question is just how cloudy it will be each day.

If the sun comes out then Saturday could reach 16'C, Sunday 15'C, and Monday to Thursday up to 18'C.

If the sun comes out.

However if it stays cloudy then don't expect any better than 10'C to 12'C.

I am currently expecting it to be cooler and more unsettled towards next weekend but there is no guarantee that will happen.

As I said, apologies that it isn't a more detailed forecast but it is the best I can do in 5 minutes!

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 5th March 2012

I am much happier with my previous forecast and as such I have two lovely photos for you:

One never tires of photos of sunsets or rainbows.

I doubt that is the last of our wintry weather this year, as I previously stated I am expecting a changeable March, but changing for the good at the moment.

Tonight will be clear with a touch of frost, down to -1'C.
Tuesday will start sunny, but it will cloud over with some patchy rain later in the evening and overnight, 9'C by day and 6'C overnight, becoming breezy.
Wednesday will be wet and windy to start as a band of rain crosses, the rain most prominent for around 3-4 hours mid-morning to mid-afternoon, clearing to fresher weather, 11'C by day, 1'C at night.
Thursday will be fairly cloudy, a few sunny breaks though and the odd light shower possible, 10'C by day, 5'C by night.
Friday looks mostly cloudy at around 10'C but in any sunshine if lucky it could rise to 13'C.  5'C overnight.
Saturday looks like seeing high pressure building and with the breeze from the south, it could reach a very pleasant 16'C with enough sunshine - lower if it stays cloudy but I am betting on a fair amount of sunshine.  5'C overnight.
Sunday again looks promising for sunshine, and again quite possibly up to 16'C.

Enjoy.

Updated Weather Forecast - Friday 2nd March 2012

I have to admit, my last forecast was not my best.  I let my heart rule my head.  It was not as sunny, nor as warm as I forecasted for this week, I do apologise.

Though on the flip side I have long been talking about more cold weather during March with the potential for snow and it is about to turn cold again.

Tonight will be cloudy and damp with some drizzle developing, and a good chance of fog forming - not everywhere though.  Around 7'C.
Saturday will see a band of rain passing through in the morning followed by sunshine and showers, 12'C.  4'C overnight.
Sunday sees a very interesting area of low pressure over the south of England, with a significant amount of rain which I expect to be heavy and persistant, and as it stalls over the south of England it will drag in an easterly wind and overnight the rain will likely turn to snow over the hills - very unlikely to turn to snow in Reading but you just never know.  A thoroughly miserable day with probably more rain than we saw in the whole of February put together.  7'C at best, down to 0'C overnight.
Monday sees the low pressure sink south towards France.  It will be cloudy all day, and there may still be some rain (or possibly sleet or snow) at times especially early in the day.  Feeling cold at 4'C, 2'C overnight.
Tuesday sees high pressure building, it should be dry but will be mostly cloudy I expect, 7'C.  0'C overnight with a touch of frost.
Wednesday will be mostly dry and cloudy, milder at around 11'C, a little light rain possible.

I am expecting a topsy-turvy March.

It will swing from milder than average, perhaps even warm at times, to cold with wintry showers, within the space of a few days.  Apart from this coming Sunday, I am not expecting much in the way of rainfall.

The main influences will be brief northerly blasts of cold showery wintry air, attempted easterlies which may bring significant snow but will probably not happen, and long-fetch south-westerlies bring mild and dry weather, and at times sunshine.

I do not currently see a repeat of last April's gloriousness.  I feel this April will be cool and showery for the first half but warming up nicely towards the end.

May I feel will start off with good sunny warm weather, though I expect more rain in the second half.

Remember, it could be worse - you could be in Australia with the floods and we have been warmer than Cyprus.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 27th February 2012

Summer followed by autumn...followed by winter?

I have long been saying more cold weather in March with the potential for snow and finally the model output is starting to come round to my ideas...I always like it when this happens!  One of the models showed a very large fall of snow for next Monday across the south of England, even Reading.

But it was just one of many model outputs - most are not yet showing any snow.

And all are showing plenty more good weather this week:

Tonight will be cloudy, a few spots of light rain in the evening, no lower than 8'C.

Tuesday will be fairly cloudy but I am hopeful of the sun breaking through and if it does for a while then it could reach a very pleasant 17'C.  Some places like Hull may reach 19'C.  No lower than 9'C overnight.

Wednesday will be sunnier, with some good sunny spells and possibly up to 15'C.  There will be cloudy spells too especially in the morning.  4'C overnight.

Thursday will also see a good amount of sunshine, some cloud too though hopefully the sunniest day of the week so far and up to 15'C again.  4'C overnight.

Friday is also looking sunny and up to 15'C, and around 5'C overnight.

Saturday is a little uncertain but it currently looks like starting sunny but rain for the evening.  15'C is possible again.

The temperatures will then drop back for at least a week.

There is potential for significant rain on Sunday but at the moment the track of the low pressure is very uncertain.

And then it is a question of how cold it will get, and whether it will snow.  As I said last time, the time-frame is around 5th to 10th March for the change to cold.

Enjoy the reasonably nice weather this week :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 23rd February 2012

I might have been expecting a pleasant and relatively warm day but I wasn't expecting that much sunshine.

Good wasn't it?

It reached 16.2'C here in Reading - the highest temperature I can find for today was 19.0'C in Great Yarmouth (more sheltered from the south-westerly breeze than us) which is just short of the February record of 19.2'C.

Plenty more good weather to come - though of course the weekend will be less warm before warming up again on Monday!

Tonight will be dry and mild at 11'C.
Friday will see plenty of cloud around but also some sunny breaks especially earlier in the day.  The cloud may be thick enough for some spots of rain by the evening, and there will be patchy outbreaks of rain overnight, 14'C by day (warmer if you get lucky with the sunshine), 8'C overnight.
Saturday will likely start cloudy with the odd spot of rain early on but I am confident of some sunny spells developing as the day goes on, 13'C during the day but a chilly 2'C overnight.
Sunday will start sunny though it will tend to cloud over later in the day.  14'C if we are lucky, some patchy rain later in the night, 8'C.
Monday will be cloudy with a mild breeze and some patches of mostly light rain.  15'C is quite possible.  6'C overnight as the skies clear.
Tuesday I am hopeful of a good sunny day and possibly up to 16'C, maybe 17'C.  9'C overnight.

I would expect the rest of next week to be mostly dry, more cloud than sun, some light rain at times.

Pretty benign weather really.

I still repeat that I am expecting more cold with the potential for snow in March.  Currently I have somewhere between the 5th and the 10th March pencilled in.

I have no reason to be confident about this as virtually none of the models have shown it as a possibility over the last week or so.  I'm sticking to my guns, I don't mind falling on my meteorological sword - I cannot get it right every time.

I need a supercomputer like the Met Office.

Or maybe not.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 20th February 2012

Finally a touch of warmth this week - I say finally, it hasn't exactly been that long since reasonable temperatures and just a couple of years ago it didn't reach 15'C for the first time until well into April.

So this is quite unusual.  But not too unusual to be above 15'C in February with the wind from the right direction and some sunshine.  Don't even try suggesting any of that global warming crap - many of the daily record temperatures were set in the 19th century.

Thanks to the lovely Natalie for letting me steal this lovely sun-rise photo.

Tonight will be dry, down to 2'C assuming the cloud breaks a bit.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, a few spots of light rain, the odd sunny break too, 10'C by day and 5'C by night, breezy.
Wednesday will be cloudy, quite windy with outbreaks of moderate rain in the afternoon, clearing during the evening.  Mild at 12'C by day and no lower than 9'C at night.
Thursday will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with more emphasis on cloud.  Those areas that stay cloudy all day will be around 13'C but those with some sunshine could reach 16'C, maybe even 17'C.  Keep your fingers crossed.  9'C overnight.
Friday will see more sunshine than cloud, and with luck temperatures should rise to 15'C.  Cooler weather spreading down in the evening, down to 2'C overnight, perhaps a little lower with a frost.
Saturday looks mostly sunny, 11'C, chilly overnight again.

For the end of February and beginning of March I still see a cool-down with some possible wintriness, though perhaps more in the way of frost.

I have long thought March will see more cold weather and snow, and I still stick to that.

However I am now thinking there will also be significant rain and wind for part of it too.  Not enough to beat the drought but a helping hand for farmers, at least.  I don't expect any better than average temperatures in March - that isn't too say that there won't be one or two sunny and fairly warm days, but on average - no better than average.

I'm not decided for April yet though I am tending towards above-average rainfall.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 16th February 2012

Time for a little weather roller-coaster.  I think I have nearly everything in here from sunshine to snow, rain, wind, frost and...t-shirt weather?

Time for my weather picture:

Yeah I know it is a bit blurry.  Stop moaning and send me one of your own.

Please.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, perhaps thick enough for a spot of drizzle by dawn, no lower than 6'C.
Friday will be cloudy with some patchy drizzle at times.  Rather mild at 12'C to 13'C.
Saturday will be cloudy with rain coming down from the north for around midday to 6pm, give or take.  It will likely be heavy at times with a chance of a rumble of thunder.  There will be a cold breeze - 9'C to start the day but quickly falling down to -2'C after the rain.  Oh incidentally, the rain could turn wintry on the back edge for a very short period.
Sunday is uncertain but it will be cold at no higher than 4'C and there is a 30% chance of a couple of snow showers.  Nothing too heavy so don't get excited.
Monday sees the wind turn to the west and then the south-west - coming not too far away from the equator so a very warm source.  Still only 7'C but it should be sunny to start - some cloud later with some light rain.  2'C overnight.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, some bright spells are possible though.  Rain overnight.  10'C by day and 6'C overnight, breezy.
Wednesday currently looks like a little rain feature developing which could be heavy.  If it does rain then 8'C - if it doesn't develop then up to 12'C.  70% likely for the rain at the moment.
Thursday could be the highlight of the year so far as the mild breeze continues and it will likely reach 15'C across parts of England (as I suggested on my last forecast) - it will need a little sunshine so if it stays cloudy in your location then 12'C is most likely.

I see it remaining changeable for the rest of the month and I am still expecting March to see more cold and snow.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 13th February 2012

Well that is the coldest part of the winter done with.  It reached a minimum of -10.2'C early on Saturday morning.  Damn cold.

I don't rule out a return to more cold weather with snow, in fact I think it quite likely, say 60%.  If you want to see some real snow, there are a couple of videos here with rather a fair amount of snow.  It is in a foreign language but the pictures are picturey.

I remembered to take a couple of pretty pictures too:

Ahh.

Tonight will have the odd spot of rain at first, then clearing with a slight frost possible, 0'c to 1'C.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, a few sunny breaks, breezy, dry and 7'C.  3'C overnight.
Wednesday will be a bit sunnier but still plenty of cloud around, a small chance of a light shower but it should be dry, a fairly mild 9'C by day, 3'C by night.
Thursday sees the wind swing round to the west, it will be mostly cloudy, mild at 10'C.  A little light rain in the evening and overnight, 5'C.
Friday will be cloudy with some outbreaks of rain, mostly likely in the afternoon or evening, mild at 11'C.  4'C overnight.
Saturday will see rain coming down from the north, mild at first at around 10'C but cooling down once the rain passes to below freezing overnight.  The rain during the day could be heavy for a while.  Windy too.  Any light showers overnight could fall as sleet or snow.

Sunday is not yet set in stone, but most likely to still be cold with a chance of more sleet or perhaps snow.  I will know more come Thursday's forecast.

The most likely option for the week after is for wind and rain but mild.  The question I have now is - can we reach 15'C before the end of the month?  I wouldn't rule it out.

Until of course the cold probably comes back.

One more lovely photo of snow just to remind you...

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 9th February 2012

As ever during a UK cold snap, it remains predictably unpredictable.

Though I am pleased to say that I did suggest more significant snow on last Thursday's forecast for today.

Tonight will see light and patchy snow at first but in Reading we should get 2-3 hours of moderate to fairly heavy snow from 9pm.  Enough to give 3-5cm I should think - some areas will get more than others, it will be quite localised.  After midnight it will become light and patchy again.  -1'C.
Friday will see any light and patchy snow clearing early.  I am hopeful for some sunshine during the afternoon.  Cold at 1'C with a severe frost overnight, down to -7'C quite possibly.
Saturday will be cold and sunny, possibly not above 0'C.  It will quickly become cold overnight, down to -4'C but will become less cold as the night goes on and cloud increases, with a little light sleet or snow by dawn.
Sunday will be mostly cloudy and slightly milder, up to 4'C.  There will be precipitation around, most likely to be light rain.  It will be patchy - nothing significant.  0'C overnight.
Monday will see a cold northerly wind developing, but paradoxically it will be milder at 7'C.  There should be a few sunny breaks - any showers will be of rain.  1'C overnight.
Tuesday will continue with this cold northerly wind, 4'C at best but feeling much colder.  Fair with some showers which could be wintry.

Wednesday has the potential for another snow event, currently 30% likely.

The second half of February looks much more unsettled.

This will most likely mean an end to the cold weather later next week for a few days, maybe a week, but in its place more rain and some wind too.  I would say a 70% chance of this change occurring.

However I am still confident of more cold weather to follow by the end of February and during March.

Feel free to send me a snowy photo for my next blog.

Snow Update - 8th February 2011

The chance of snow for Thursday evening is now around 80% lasting roughly from 6pm until well into Friday morning.

I think the heaviest will be 50 miles or so to the west/north-west of Reading, but we should still get 3-5cm - enough to cause problems getting to work on Friday morning.

Next Wednesday still has the potential for snow - I am only 50% confident on that one though.

Updated Weather Forecast - Tuesday 7th February 2012

Apologies for the lack of my usual Monday forecast last night, I was busy celebrating, one thing led to another, led to another and by 5am I couldn't see the screen.

Winter is definitely set to continue...no snow of significance for now but I might have something to say about that come the end of my forecast.  Maybe.  But potentially the coldest night of the winter so far tonight (the coldest last week in Reading was -8.8'C).

Did you enjoy the snow?  I didn't bother with a snowman in the end.

This is my neighbour's attempt:

I'm waiting for it to snow, PROPERLY.

My sister had a much better attempt and I am suitably jealous:

Tonight will be mostly clear and frosty, down to -8'C, possibly lower.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny though some areas of cloud at times, probably not getting above 0'C and down to -7'C overnight, maybe slightly less cold if cloudier than currently expecting.
Thursday might reach a balmy 2'C but it will be a much cloudier day.  Outbreaks of light rain will head down from the north-west during the day, reaching Reading later in the evening and potentially falling as snow.  I would say 60% chance of snow but it won't be more than 1cm.  I will of course update nearer the time if this changes.  -2'C overnight with the light and patchy wintry mix continuing.
Friday will start cloudy, any bits of light rain, sleet and snow clearing and the sun should come out, it might even reach 3'C.  Cold and frosty overnight and down to -6'C.
Saturday will be cold, sunny and dry, frosty overnight, 2'C by day and -5'C overnight.  Interestingly high pressure is building over the Atlantic and Greenland - an excellent way to stop the Atlantic conveyor belt of wind, rain and mild weather getting to the UK.  This happened late November 2010 - remember what followed?!
Sunday will be noticeably less cold, maybe 5'C, still mostly sunny, a bit of cloud and only -1'C overnight.
Monday maybe a little light rain and a shocking 7'C!

For the middle of next week I favour low pressure coming down from the north with a cold, Arctic blast, maybe rain at first but as the wind potentially swings to the north-east it could turn to snow.  And it could be significant.

Wednesday is the key day.

It is way too early to be sure yet, this is not a pattern that happens very often.  But it is what I think is most likely as things stand.  I certainly expect more wintry weather before this is out and I would not be surprised if the cold sticks around until March.

In summary, cold and frosty, slowly getting less cold but then a potential new winter blast.

Snow Update - 3rd February 2011

I thought I would do you a quick update on the snow situation.

Around 4-5pm on Saturday afternoon it should start to snow - it may be a bit wet or sleety initially but it will come down and give a fair covering - perhaps not quite the 10cm I suggested in my previous forecast, but not far off.

I think the chance of the back end of the system being more rain or sleet rather than snow is now around 40%, an increase from yesterday which is the main reason I feel that the total amount of snow on the ground come Sunday morning will be lower, and also I feel that the front will clear the UK quicker than I previously expected and it should have stopped snowing/raining by 3am on Sunday morning.

Monday is still indecisive as there may be some rain showers to melt the snow - but equally it could be more wintry.

Then a reload of the cold with more snow potential during next week, as I suggested on yesterday's forecast.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 2nd February 2012

Well, I promised you that snow was on it's way and I have never seen anything like what is currently possible for Reading.

The cold block to the east is looking not so willing to give way but the Atlantic fronts with their associated rain are coming - and will turn to snow.

Where exactly gets the most snow and for how long for is still questionable so I will give it my best shot.  Don't even bother looking at the BBC website as they have nothing forecast for Reading - shocking.  And the Met Office typically underplay it.

You have been warned - this could end up with more snow than you have ever seen in England before next week is out (unless you are over 40 years old) - and it is certain to at least bring enough this weekend to cause much disruption.

Tonight will be clear, very cold with a severe frost, it is already below zero at 5pm and will possibly reach -8'C.
Friday will be cold and sunny, it might reach 1'C.  Again very cold with a severe frost overnight and down to around -8'C again.
Saturday will become increasingly cloudy during the day and snow will begin to fall around 6pm, give or take a couple of hours.  I am 90% confident of a heavy spell of snow, around 10cm in Reading.  Some areas may get more, some less.  There is a 10% chance that it may be sleet or wet snow at some point which would reduce the amount of snow on the ground.  2'C by day, -2'C by night.
Sunday will see the area of snow start to fizzle out, perhaps moving further east of Reading, but again perhaps staying over Reading to add another 5cm.  And a 10-20% chance of it turning to sleet/rain.  It is a little on a knife-edge.  1'C by day and down to around -3'C at night.
Monday is most likely to remain cloudy with some light bits of snow possible at times, 1'C by day and -2'C at night.

Tuesday brings the potential for another significant spell of snow but it is too far out to be certain.
Wednesday again has the potential for some light snow.
Thursday also has the potential for another significant spell of snow.

If these come off, and it is a big if, there could be amounts of up to 30-40cm.

Oh and afterwards it is most likely to remain cold and frosty for a week or so.

Confidence levels in my forecast are as follows:

Tonight, Friday and Saturday day - 100%
Saturday night - 90%
Sunday - 70%
Monday - 70%
Tuesday to Thursday - 40%

I will update if and when it changes because snow event forecasts for the UK are always marginal events.

But you will get a good dumping on Saturday night.

Have fun - I look forward to building snowmen!

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 30th January 2012

Finally the cold weather I promised for January long ago has arrived, and it is set to get quite a bit colder too - we might even have a couple of ice days (where the temperature does not rise about 0'C all day).

It should become less cold later next weekend or into the new week.

Not quite as cold as Bulgaria which has -36'C forcasted for this week - ouch.

Sadly for snow lovers there is very little on offer...at the moment.  Except if you live on the East Coast.

Tonight will be cold, clear and dry, down to -4'C so rather frosty.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny and dry though there is a 30% chance of a light snow shower making it this far inland during the afternoon - the breeze will from the east - a very cold direction in winter.  No higher than 3'C during the day and down to -5'C overnight with another hard frost.
Wednesday will be sunny and dry, a touch colder at probably no more than 1'C and down to a colder -6'C overnight, possibly even lower than that.
Thursday again sunny and dry, but colder still at 0'C during the day and maybe -8'C overnight.  Just a very small chance of a very light snow flurry during the day.
Friday looks interesting with a little feature developing over the North Sea and heading inland, at this point I rate the chance of snow in Reading at 30% but this might upgrade.  1'C during the day if lucky, -6'C overnight.
Saturday again has the chance of a snow shower or two, again around 30% chance but most showers will not have the strength to make it anywhere near as far inland as Reading.

Sunday into Monday looks like milder weather will start to come in from the west with rain - but I fully expect this to turn to snow and there could be a reasonable dumping.  This is not yet set in stone and requires a little weakening of the high pressure over Russia and Scandinavia - the cold weather may well hang on for longer.

I will have more certainty on this and any possible snow showers for Friday, on my next forecast on Thursday evening.

I currently expect any mild incursion to be brief and a return to cold weather to follow during February.

Enjoy.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 26th January 2012

I promised a change to cold, and finally the colder air is slowly starting to migrate from the east towards the UK.

However, the Atlantic warmth and rain is not willing to give up, so it looks like there will be a battle over the UK in the coming days between the milder, wet weather from the west, and the much colder, drier air from the east.

It will make for very interesting weather in some areas, some places will see snow but it will be hard to work out until probably the day before.  And sometimes it will be too marginal to call - but it will be interesting.

If I become aware of the likelihood of snow, I will update my Facebook Weather Page.

For now:

Tonight will see any showers clearing and a fairly chilly night, down to 0'C with a slight frost possible.
Friday will start sunny but showers will develop, I would say there is a 70% chance of catching one or two, possibly a little sleety, chilly at 7'C, a frost overnight, down to -2'C.
Saturday will start sunny but frosty, high pressure is building, it will be chilly at around 5'C.  A frost likely overnight again, down to -2'C, though there may be cloud starting to build from the west.
Sunday will see a band of rain coming from the west, however there is a chance that it might turn to snow - certainly on the hills it will, it is not likely to in Reading but there is a 30% chance and I might upgrade the chance if you ask me tomorrow.  Don't be surprised to see a couple of hours of wet snow or sleet before it turns back to rain.  Cold at 3'C, similar overnight.
Monday is a very interesting looking day.  Cloudy with areas of precipitation around.  The wind direction looks to turn to the east.  Some areas will see snow.  Again, Reading is not a favoured area but perhaps in the evening as it turns cold, it may snow a bit.  50% chance.  On wet ground though, it isn't going to settle.  4'C at best during the day and down to -3'C overnight.
Tuesday is yet another interesting day with a 40% chance of some snow, but also some rain too.  No higher than 3'C.  Cold.

If I had to put a bet, I would say that the mild air will win out by Wednesday, but only temporarily, and then only to say 8'C, not especially mild.

And then a return to cold.

There is going to be so much very cold air over Europe that it would be silly if we did not get some proper wintry weather during the first half of February.  Even the Met Office think there is a 66% chance of cold and snow during February!

As soon as I can firm up with details with regards to potential snow, I will do.  Enjoy :-)

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 23rd January 2012

The story has not changed from the last few forecasts.

The weather models continue to tease - offering cold and snow but not quite yet in a reliable time-frame, but every time I do a forecast it does seem to be promised just that one day closer.

But this isn't the whole story.

In my previous forecast, the models were saying that it wasn't going to happen (though I didn't change my forecast of expecting cold and snow).  Then over the weekend the models almost all pointed to snow - disruptive snow for a couple of weeks.  Then this morning, they took almost all suggestion away, back to mild and wet.

And tonight - the snow is back on with a vengeance.  Eventually.  Perhaps.

If I have learnt one thing from about 8 years of model-watching, it is that not to count on any weather offerings by the models more than 5 days away unless they are from the west, north-west or south-west - which is where the majority of our weather comes from.  And snow hardly ever comes from that direction.

The Met Office have suggested snow tomorrow for up north - it will not happen in Reading.  I doubt that it will even happen up north except over the highest of hills, I do not know where they have got that one from.

Tonight sees a ridge of high pressure over the UK, clearing skies with a slight frost by dawn, 0'C.
Tuesday will be cloudy and mild with rain during the day, heavy at times, 11'C by day and 8'C by night.  the worst of the rain will clear around mid-afternoon with some light patchy bits following.
Wednesday will be windy, cloudy with light patchy rain at times, more general rain overnight.  A mild 11'C by day, down to 5'C when the rain clears overnight.
Thursday will be cooler and breezy, 50% chance of a shower or two, but sunny spells too, 7'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Friday sees high pressure building, mostly dry with a 20% chance of a light shower.  Sunny.  7'C by day and down to 0'C overnight with a slight frost.

Saturday and Sunday will most likely be a mixture of sunshine and cloud with some showers.

Sunday or Monday may see the cold weather start to dig in.  If the cold weather arrives, don't expect it to get above -3'C even during the day.

And from then on?  A month of cold and snow.  Maybe.

I am sorry that I cannot be 100% confident.  I really wish I could.  I have always believed that a mild winter would turn to snow during January and still remain confident in my belief but the weather models, which I do have to take notice of instead of "my gut feelings" say 50/50.

So my forecast remains 50/50 that the cold weather will dig in during the weekend and into next week.

***

Previous forecast

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 19th January 2012

Winter is still teasing us.  It remains a case of close, but no snowy cigar.  I still feel that the pattern is changing to cold, and I still expect winter to bite us, just not quite just yet...it is really taking its time, though the old pattern was so set in after month upon month that it is not a surprise.

Tonight will be breezy, there is a chance of a shower too, no lower than 3'C.
Friday will see a band of rain coming down from the north-west, it looks to be moving quite slowly once it arrives so some places will get rain all day, others will escape with some patchy rain, 8'C by day and up to 10'C overnight, oh and it will be windy all day.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with showers, they will be hit and miss, you might get 5 showers or none, still remaining windy, 11'C by day, drier overnight and down to 3'C.
Sunday should be sunny, but there will again be a chance of showers in the breeze, 9'C by day and down to 1'C overnight.
Monday develops a chilly northerly, mostly sunny, odd shower around, 6'C by day and -1'C overnight with a frost.

The battle between wet and windy weather from the Atlantic and the increasing cold over Russia, both heading our way will continue next week, with the Atlantic winning.  For now.

Spring and summer thoughts?

At the moment I think both will be drier than average, especially spring.  Spring I don't yet see being as warm as 2011 but this could change, but certainly lots of sunshine at times.  Summer I do see as warmer than average this year.  Doesn't mean it will be dry and sunny though!  I know I am not exactly sticking my neck out here, but I am formulating ideas right now and it is way too early for me to be confident.  Especially seeing as my forecasting wasn't always up to my usual standards during July and August.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 16th January 2012

Fear not, my last forecast wasn't real - I wouldn't let you down would I?

Finally we have had some cold weather, with it getting down to -4.6'C on Saturday morning in Reading.

Currently it is already below freezing, and I expect it to get down to something like -4'C again tonight in clear skies.
Tuesday will start cold and sunny but it will cloud over during the day, 6'C by day, and down to around 1'C overnight so we should just escape a frost, with a few spots of rain by dawn.
Wednesday will be cloudy with outbreaks of mainly light to moderate rain, drier overnight, reaching a mild 11'C by day and 6'C overnight.  Breezy too.
Thursday will be cooler in a chilly wind from the north-west, quite sunny with a good chance of a shower or two, and some more general outbreaks of rain overnight, 7'C by day, 3'C at night.
Friday will be fairly cloudy, a little sunshine, more showers and some showery rain overnight, any rain will be light to moderate, around 7'C.

And what about the wintry weather for the weekend that I said was 50% likely?

Well, not so likely, surprise, surprise (I said it never snows on my birthday).

Saturday will have a cold northerly wind, down to 6'C by day, 1'C at night, chance of a shower or two...of rain.
Sunday might even see a north-easterly wind but the proper cold won't quite get across the north sea, maybe there might be a wintry flurry but I wouldn't put a bet on it.  4'C by day, -3'C overnight.
Monday looks likely to see rain coming in from the west, turning to snow in some areas however Reading is not one of the places that is likely to see snow, a 10% chance.  3'C.

I'm not fully confident on this outcome for the weekend, I would not be surprised if it were actually a little milder and wetter.

The remainder of the month and into February will remain changeable and almost certainly less mild than December and January so far, with more cold weather at times and much less rain.

Over and out and asleep.

A Weather Forecast

Some dry weather, cold or mild, some sunshine or some cloud with a chance of rain one day soon.

Dark overnight.

I hope that helps, I'm going to bed.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 12th January 2012

Those of you that clicked like on the Facebook box will have seen this week just how up and down the models are as I posted regular updates - and what I have to cope with to try to come up with a sane sounding weather forecast - because if I wrote up the model output every day you would be as confused as hell, especially when the weather is going through a process of change like it is now.

We are still going to have a cold snap, but just cold temperatures and frost - no chance of snow.  Lots of wintry sunshine though.  But next weekend...oh I shouldn't tell you, it might not come true.

But if you really want to see snow, then how about these pictures of snow in Alaska - 1963 was the last time we had that kind of amount in England, so I believe!

I'll show you a picture of the sunset in Reading tonight.  I am not blessed with photography skills but I managed somehow in my blurry ways to get lots of pretty lights in it:

Tonight there is still a bit of cloud around.  We are under an area of high pressure, no wind, and dropping temperatures - it shouldn't go lower than 1'C.
Friday will be sunny, a bit of cloud but dry, chilly at 6'C and a frost overnight, down to -2'C.  A 20% chance of fog developing.
Saturday will be a crisp, sunny, wintry day, 5'C by day, -2'C by night.
Sunday may see a bit more cloud, still a chilly 5'C by day and down to -3'C by night.
Monday sees little change, sunnier than the day before, 5'C by day, down to -4'C at night.
Tuesday looks a touch milder after a cold start at 6'C, cloud should develop which will keep the frost away at night, 1'C (I am not 100% confident on no frost yet, it is quite 50/50).

I have to admit that I am not sure about Wednesday or Thursday - they could be dry and cold, but could be milder with wind and rain.  50/50.  I'll know by Monday's forecast.

OK, seeing as it is my birthday weekend next weekend, I shall tell you what is forecast.

Low pressure coming down from the north on Friday, dragging easterly winds from the continent (which is having the very cold spell that I mentioned on previous forecasts which isn't getting here as I thought it might), the low pressure to stick around all weekend and Friday's outbreaks of rain, turning to snow either on Saturday or Sunday.

But it never snows on my birthday.

I will kind of believe it when I see it, but if it is forecast the same when I do my Monday forecast then you can get your sledges out (though I would wait until my Thursday forecast to dust them off).

As it stands it is 50% likely to snow next weekend.  But not before.

***

Previous forecast

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 9th January 2012

I have been banging on for ages about the worst of this winter being in January, and for the last month or so how I thought that the weather would change around the middle of January - and finally the weather models are showing weather eye candy.  Free days off from work kind of eye candy.

But don't get too excited yet.

I am only 50% confident - though last Thursday I was only 30% confident.

After months of almost non-stop westerly or south-westerly winds, for it to suddenly change to easterly would be quite some atmospheric doing, we either need the jetstream to go south of the UK, or to split and go north and south.  It looks like doing one of them.

Even if an easterly wind becomes 100% guaranteed - there is no guarantee of snow.  Many times before the last few wintry winters we had dry easterlies with just a few snow grains to get excited about, albeit with freezing cold temperatures.  However, the biggest historic snowfalls have come from easterlies.

For now, we have our last mild week, a dry week too for a change, and something almost springlike in the sunshine:

Tonight sees high pressure in charge, no lower than 8'C.
Tuesday will see periods of cloud, and periods of sunshine, 11'C by day, down to 5'C overnight in clear skies.
Wednesday will again see some sunny periods, but also cloud at times, 10'C by day, 6'C overnight.
Thursday a touch milder at up to 12'C, there will be sunshine at times, but also cloud, down to 4'C overnight.
Friday will see high pressure getting squeezed from both the west and the east by low pressure systems, but still dry with some sunny periods, 9'C by day, maybe down to 0'C overnight with a possible frost.

My confidence is not so high from now:

Saturday looks like a band of rain will approach from the west but it may not reach Reading, most likely it will start sunny and cold but cloud over.  7'C.
Sunday currently looks like this band of rain should finally reach Reading but will probably get no further before moving south, allowing colder air to start filtering in from the east, 4'C by day, -3'C by night.  However, as this cold air starts to move in, the rain could turn to snow.  20% chance currently.

If current projections come true then for next Monday onwards, cold and getting colder, anywhere down to 0'C by day and -8'C by night.

Even if they don't and the mild westerlies win back for a few more days, I fully believe that winter will make another attempt in time for the weekend after.

Remember folks, this is current projections, it will take a lot of atmospheric changes for the cold and snow to come off.

Next forecast is Thursday - I will update my weather page on Facebook before then with regards to the likelihood of cold and snow, most likely every day.

Updated Weather Forecast - Thursday 5th January 2012

The wind was quite the story this week - always good to get a good blow.

I was going to take a picture of a few large twigs on the pavement near my house, but I have a photo of some blown over fences from Twyford.  Thanks to Carley for the photo, I hope your landlord puts them back up and not you!

I am getting increasingly confident that my prediction of a cold, snow-filled second half of January might actually come true despite the last 3-4 months of mild weather and absolutely no sign of winter to date.

This time next week I should be able to say yes or no for definite.  The time-scale is somewhere from the 15th onwards, with my birthday weekend being prime target.  It never snows on my birthday.

On my previous forecast, I was living in hope, 10% confident.  I am now 30% confident of this.  A big improvement but quite a way from getting excited.  Not that I am particularly excited about freezing my tits off...I just like being right.

For now, we are entering a more benign period of weather (boring) which after all the wind and rain of the last week may appeal, as high pressure builds from the south at last.

Tonight, dry with a chilly breeze dying out, 2'C.
Friday will start bright, more cloud later with a couple of showers in the evening and overnight, 7'C by day, 9'C by night - still breezy.
Saturday will be bright with some sunshine, some clouds, and dry, 8'C by day, 3'C by night.
Sunday will be cloudy with some patchy rain during the day but not amounting to much, mild 11'C by day, 7'C by night.
Monday may start cloudy with a spot of drizzle but I expect it to become sunny and will be rather pleasant at up to 12'C, cool overnight, down to 1'C, maybe a touch lower with a slight frost.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny, some cloud developing perhaps.  It should reach 10'C - overnight anywhere between 0'C and 7'C depending on cloud levels - sorry but your guess is as good as mine on that one right now.
Wednesday again I am hopeful for some sunshine and if so it could reach a balmy 13'C, lower if it stays cloudy.  Again, night-time temperature depends on cloud levels - anywhere from 0'C to 8'C.

Thursday and Friday also dry but I cannot say whether cloudy or sunny yet, but it will most likely remain mild.  There is a chance of fog forming but at the moment I rate it as a small chance, I will confirm on the next forecast.

Next weekend looks unsettled.

Then the will-it, won't-it fun begins.

I hope to be the first to tell you.

I've been lacking in weather photos recently so please do send one if you can.

Updated Weather Forecast - Monday 2nd January 2012

Happy new year, and welcome to a slightly new look weather blog - with a new background, a Facebook box to the right, and also I have reduced the amount of posts showing on the home page so it should load up quicker.

But no happy new year wishes from the Atlantic Ocean as Tuesday morning will see severe gales and heavy rain - enough to possibly cause damage and disruption.

More in a minute as I want to point you to this foam sea storm near Blackpool the other day - again during a bout of severe gales.  Quite unusual!

And did you know that 2011 was the second warmest year in the UK - and that is despite the coolest summer for 20 years.  Yes, April, May, September, October and November were all well above average months.

Tonight will become windy, eventually with gales and heavy rain after midnight, 5'C.
Tuesday will start with heavy rain, which will last until well into the afternoon, and noticeably strong winds, possibly gusting up to 70mph in the Reading area which is enough for some small-scale damage and disruption, ie the odd blocked road from branches, etc.  The worst weather will be for morning rush-hour, and the winds will again be strong in the evening and over-night.  A mild 11'C by day but a cold 3'C overnight in a cold wind.
Wednesday will be windy with a couple of light showers, some sunshine too.  Gales again in the evening and overnight, with more rain, this time from a northerly direction overnight, 7'C by day, 9'C in the rain overnight.
Thursday will have a chilly north-westerly to northerly wind but still 8'C in the cloud and showery rain, nothing too heavy, clearing later in the day to bright skies and chilly overnight, down to 2'C.
Friday will be fairly cloudy, with some showers, but a little brightness too, 9'C by day and night, oh and breezy still.
Saturday again sees the return of a chilly north-westerly to northerly wind, but again still around 7'C.  It should be sunny, with just a small chance of a passing shower.  2'C overnight.

Sunday onwards should see the growth of high pressure, so drier and eventually cooler with some frosts possible.

I am still hopeful that my long-term winter prediction of cold and snowy weather in January, particularly from the half-way point will come true and there are indications of a pattern change to colder weather around 14th January.

It may only be frost and fog cold to start with - La Nina may well extend through to February and thereby delay the onset of any cold weather.

The advantage of cold weather arriving any time from mid-February is that the sun is just about strong enough to allow for home-grown snow showers as opposed to them having to be imported in the wind (when they will often die out before reaching Reading) - though on the downside the sun being stronger means that any snow melts much quicker!

Anyway, the signs of a change to colder weather in 10-14 days are only tentative so do not start buying sledges just yet.